NFL Pick: 2023 NFC East Winner – Philadelphia Eagles (-121) at BetRivers
On a yearly basis, the NFC East loves to crown a new champion. The Philadelphia Eagles were the talk of the NFC last year after an 8-0 start led to a Super Bowl, but no one has been able to repeat as NFC East champions since the Eagles did it in 2001-04.
Every other division in the NFL has had at least 2 of its teams repeat as champions since as recently as 2008. But the top online sportsbooks are in favor of this drought ending thanks to the Eagles being favored to get back to the Super Bowl from the NFC.
The Landscape
Here are the current NFC East division odds from BetRivers for the 2023-24 NFL season:
- Philadelphia Eagles (-121)
- Dallas Cowboys (+190)
- New York Giants (+700)
- Washington Commanders (+1300)
Is there any value in the other teams leapfrogging Philadelphia? Only 3 of the last 8 Super Bowl losers won their division the following season, but the Eagles still have a great roster going into 2023.
We have our best bet to win the NFC East below.
Philadelphia Eagles: Weight of Expectations
The Eagles were a marginal playoff team in 2021 and had fair expectations going into last year thanks to the appearance of a favorable schedule. But few would have expected this team to start 8-0 and create records for points scored in the 2nd quarter or to be the 3rd team since the merger to not trail in the second half of its first 8 games.
The addition of A.J. Brown at wide receiver helped open the passing game for Jalen Hurts, who finished No. 2 in MVP voting. But Hurts’ shoulder injury late in the year threatened to derail Philadelphia’s dream season. He returned in time for Week 18 and the playoffs, but he did miss the big Dallas game on Christmas Eve that could have showcased his skills to a national audience and earned him more traction in the MVP race with Patrick Mahomes. But the Eagles lost that game 40-34 and showed some cracks on defense against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
Costly Mistake
Of course, the Eagles came up short in Super Bowl 57 against Kansas City, but the team’s 35 points were the most ever scored by a loser in Super Bowl history. Unfortunately, a fumble by Hurts in the 2nd quarter that was returned for a touchdown was key in Kansas City’s comeback win. Hurts had a lot of impressive plays on the night, and he was denied a good shot at a game-winning drive after a questionable penalty on the defense in the final minutes, but that fumble was a big deal.
Turnovers were the only downfall to Philadelphia’s season as the Eagles had 4 of them in each of the losses to the Commanders and Cowboys. They also had a pick-6 thrown by Gardner Minshew in the 4th quarter of the loss to New Orleans.
A New Direction?
While this team has lost both of its coordinators, there should be cohesion with the offense as the Eagles made an in-house promotion there. The Eagles also lost running back Miles Sanders, but they have reloaded with D’Andre Swift joining the team from Detroit, and Sanders was a non-factor in the receiving game at running back. The Eagles still have a great trio of receivers when you include tight end Dallas Goedert.
Defensively, it will be hard to top 70 sacks again, but the Eagles added some serious pass-rushing help in the 1st round of the draft with Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith. Some had Carter as the best defensive player in the class, but there were off-field issues and character concerns that dropped him to Philadelphia. If he can learn from Fletcher Cox and company, this could be an excellent pick for the Eagles.
This team should not be complacent with just getting to a Super Bowl. They have ideal talent on both sides of the ball and do everything well. The season series with Dallas (Week 9 and Week 14) should determine the division winner, and last year it was a split with both teams beating the other’s backup quarterback. Hopefully we get to see 2 games of Hurts vs. Prescott this year.
Dallas Cowboys: Cutting Down the Mistakes
While the Cowboys delivered the knockout blow to Tom Brady’s career in the playoffs, it was quickly forgotten after the team performed worse in a playoff loss to the 49ers than it did the season before. That marks another 12-5 season that came up short of the NFC Championship Game, the round the Cowboys have not reached since the 1995 season.
The defense led the league in takeaways for the 2nd year in a row, which is an incredibly hard thing to do in the NFL. It should finally regress under Dan Quinn in 2023, but this defense has the talent to be an elite unit and it already took steps to improve on 2021’s play by getting more stops without an interception or fumble. Micah Parsons was the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year for most of 2022 before San Francisco’s Nick Bosa won it over him.
Lost In Interceptions?
Quarterback in Dallas always draws the most headlines, and Dak Prescott tossing a league-high 15 interceptions while only playing in 12 games had a lot of people souring on Dallas last year. Prescott threw another pair of picks in the playoff loss in San Francisco, the first time in his playoff career he finished with 2 interceptions in a postseason.
But with an interception rate so high from his career average, and a lot of the interceptions coming on tipped and deflected balls (bad luck), there is a great chance this number improves dramatically for Prescott in 2023. He also has Tony Pollard to start the season at running back, an explosive weapon they finally unleashed ahead of Ezekiel Elliott, who remains a free agent, last season. Michael Gallup also should be better after a slow recovery year in 2022. The speedy Brandin Cooks is a new weapon for Prescott and instantly becomes the best deep threat on the team.
New OC
There is concern over the Cowboys going from Kellen Moore to Brian Schottenheimer at offensive coordinator, but Russell Wilson enjoyed many of his best statistical moments under Schottenheimer in Seattle. There should be more emphasis on the running game, but with Pollard in his prime instead of Zeke past his, this hardly seems like a bad trade-off behind a talented offensive line. Throwing the ball over and over rarely ever translates to a Super Bowl, and Prescott is not Patrick Mahomes.
The Cowboys have a chance to be great this year, but December should tell us a lot about how the playoffs could go. Dallas will face the Eagles (Week 14), Bills (Week 15), Dolphins (Week 16), and Lions (Week 17) in a pivotal December that should decide the NFC East winner.
New York Giants: Big Spenders, Big Questions
Brian Daboll was named Coach of the Year after leading the Giants to the playoffs for the first time since 2016 with a 9-7-1 record last year. He deserved the honor, but we must keep it real about the Giants in 2022, a team that was outscored by 6 points on the year and finished 3-6-1 after a 6-1 start.
Unlike Daboll’s breakout success in Buffalo with Josh Allen in 2020, he did not get a banner year from mobile quarterback Daniel Jones. It was better than Jones’ previous seasons for the Giants, but it still was low-volume passing that produced mediocre results on offense. Saquon Barkley also had his best season since he was a rookie in 2018, but the 2nd half of the season was not nearly as effective or productive as the start – a common theme for the team’s season.
Playoff Win
However, the Giants won a playoff game in Minnesota in the wild-card round, a nice job to cover up the fact they were waxed by the Eagles 3 times late in the year, or that they were swept by Dallas again and lost big to the Seahawks, a wild card team last year.
The Giants had 5 game-winning drives in their first 7 games, something no team had ever done in NFL history before last year. But their only close win like that the rest of the way was the drive in Minnesota in the wild-card round.
Wrong Narrative?
The idea is that the Giants just need to get Jones more weapons to open up his passing game. That may very well be true, but trading for tight end Darren Waller and signing every slot receiver in existence may not lead to the desired effect. It certainly is not as big as Tua Tagovailoa getting Tyreek Hill, Jalen Hurts getting A.J. Brown, or Allen getting Stefon Diggs in Buffalo in 2020. Waller can definitely improve the tight end position that was ghosting the offense for years, but he is also often injured.
In case you forgot, the playing surface at MetLife has a bad reputation for injuries. The Giants also clearly still look like the 3rd-best team in the division (at best) with the 3rd-best quarterback. That is a poor situation to be in when you want to win a division title, but crazier things have happened in this league.
Washington Commanders: New Era or Another Disappointment?
The Commanders have new ownership and may end up changing the team’s name again, but can we see some wins too? After getting duped by Carson Wentz last year, the Commanders finished 8-8-1 in a season that never felt that close to the playoffs.
The postseason really was in reach for the Commanders at 7-5, which included arguably the upset of the year in Philadelphia when the Eagles were 8-0. But the team failed to get a win over the rival Giants, settling for a tie and close loss. Then Washington lost to an elite San Francisco team, gave Wentz an ill-advised start against Cleveland, lost that game too, and the season was over.
Splash Signing
Now the Commanders are trying to make a splash by hiring Eric Bieniemy to be the new offensive coordinator from Kansas City. This is a big deal since Bieniemy has not been able to land the head coaching job he wants, but a criticism of him is that he was not the play caller in Kansas City. Andy Reid was calling the shots and designing all these wonderful plays, and the elite talent of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce was making it work out to historic success.
Bieniemy is not taking over an offense without talent, but he is going to find out very quickly that Logan Thomas, who is often injured, is not Kelce. Worse, Terry McLaurin cannot blow by people like Tyreek Hill used to, though he is still a solid No. 1 wideout in his own right.
Running With It
But the biggest issue is running an offense with a question mark at quarterback. Sam Howell could win the job after starting the final game of his rookie season, a surprising win over Dallas when the defense dominated. But Howell, a 5th-round pick in 2022, would be one of the least heralded quarterbacks to open a season for a team. He has decent mobility that can be utilized, but his accuracy and decision-making are yet to be proven.
The Commanders also have Jacoby Brissett, who played his best ball in Cleveland last year and outplayed Deshaun Watson. He could actually be the better choice to start, but it is hard to think the defense will be outstanding enough to help carry this offense over the more established Eagles and Cowboys, who are simply better at the most important positions.
Conclusion: And the Division Winner Is…
This still looks like a 2-way battle between the Cowboys and Eagles. The Commanders cannot be trusted at quarterback, and Ron Rivera has a winning record in 25% of his 12 seasons as a head coach. The Giants still do not have an intimidating receiving corps and should face close-game regression.
For the top rivals, Hurts and Prescott will both be adjusting to a new offensive coordinator, though it should be a steady transition for both. The Eagles still have the better-receiving weapons, especially when you consider the loss of Dalton Schultz at tight end in Dallas as he had become a good safety valve for Prescott.
Dallas may end up with the better defense this year, but it is hard to ignore the pass-rushing ability of the Eagles and the corner play is strong too with James Bradberry and Darius Slay returning.
But then you start looking at the schedule for an edge. The Cowboys have to play in San Francisco (Week 5) and Buffalo (Week 15), two elite teams, while the Eagles get both games at home after Thanksgiving (Week 12 and Week 13). That feels like a significant advantage. The Eagles can also draw first blood at home against Dallas in Week 9 before the rematch in Week 14, the last tough game on the schedule for the birds.
The Pick
In fact, if things are close after the teams meet in Week 14, you have to give the Eagles an edge on closing schedules. The Eagles only have to face the Seahawks (Week 15), Cardinals (Week 17), and the Giants twice (Week 16 and Week 18). The Cowboys close with 3-of-4 on the road in Buffalo, Miami, and Washington (Week 18), and they host the Lions, who are favored to win the NFC North.
It should be a close battle, but personal preference still gives the better roster nod to Philadelphia. Let’s go with the Eagles to end that drought of the NFC East not having a repeat winner since 2004.
NFL Pick: 2023 NFC East Winner – Philadelphia Eagles (-121) at BetRivers
