Since there are no games tonight, we’ll skip right to the NBA Christmas slate for today’s NBA computer picks.
The NBA Christmas slate has five games playing back-to-back on ABC and ESPN. Therefore, I went to the AI Model and asked for the three best bets for this slate. Here’s what you should consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Spurs/Knicks Over 223.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Lakers +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Suns +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks
Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
The AI Model thinks the Knicks and Spurs will combine for 226 points. However, you can find the total at 223.5. The Over is the play here.
The Spurs Are Finally Above .500!
The San Antonio Spurs are playing some really good basketball lately. The offense has scored at least 114 points in four of their last five games. In the four wins, the Spurs scored 114 points.
While the Spurs aren’t favorites to win in this game, San Antonio has proven they’re not an easy out anymore. The offense is starting to click and the Knicks’ defense is just average in many significant categories.
The Spurs Aren’t On The Knicks’ Level
While the Spurs will support the Over, the Knicks will be the team to beat it.
The Knicks have scored a league-best 112.8 points per 100 possessions with an effective field goal percentage of 58.7%. New York has also turned the ball over just 13.1% of the time and has still added 27.1% of offensive rebounds.
The Pick
The Knicks will be ready and prepared for this Christmas Day game in the Garden.
Let’s rock with the Over 223.5 here.
NBA Pick: Spurs/Knicks Over 223.5 (-110) at Bet365
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Chase Center
Our AI Model thinks the Lakers will cover a 3.5-point spread against the Warriors on the road with a three-point loss. The Lakers have been a little more consistent than the Warriors this season. Let’s ride with the Lakers at -3.5.
The Lakers Will Be At The Foul Line A Lot
The Los Angeles Lakers are an average offense, scoring 112.9 points per 100 possessions. Ultimately, the Lakers have added a 54.5% effective field goal percentage and turned the ball over 14.2% of the time, which isn’t bad.
That said, the Lakers aren’t efficient on the offensive glass. They won’t dominate in that department. Yet, they’re super aggressive at getting to the foul line. Los Angeles has added a 22.3 free throw rate, the best in the league. If the Lakers shoot an average effective field goal percentage but get to the line at a high rate, they’ll stick around in this one.
What Happened To Golden State’s Offense?
The Golden State Warriors have shot an effective field goal percentage of 53.1% and have gone to the foul line at the lowest rate in the NBA. That won’t help to knock off the Lakers, even at home.
This team has had a bunch of drama and stars that aren’t playing well. That’ll continue in this one.
The Pick
I’ll back the AI Model and take the Lakers at +3.5.
NBA Pick: Lakers +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Footprint Center
The AI Model suggests the Suns will only lose to the Nuggets, 118-117. Since the Suns are +2.5, the best play is backing Phoenix against the spread.
How Phoenix Can Stop Denver’s Offense
The Denver Nuggets are a top-five offense in the NBA. The Nuggets have scored 117.8 points per 100 possessions and have added a 56.7% effective field goal percentage.
That likely won’t change despite being on the road. However, the Nuggets likely won’t add a high rate of second chances on the offensive glass and could find themselves at the foul line less than usual.
After all, the Suns have limited opponents to only 25.7% of offensive rebounds and a 19% defensive free-throw rate.
Phoenix Can Hang In There, Too
The Suns have the 8th-best offense in the NBA, scoring 115.4 points per 100 possessions. Phoenix has shot an effective field goal percentage of 56.4, proving the Suns can stick around against Denver.
It’s also likely the Suns don’t turn the ball over much, especially knowing the Nuggets have earned only 14.3% of turnovers defensively.
The Pick
While the Nuggets are also very good at limiting foul shots, the Suns are in the top six in offensive free throw rate. I’m not surprised when Phoenix sees the foul line at home more.
I’m taking the Suns at +2.5 here.
NBA Pick: Suns +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
