For the first time ever, Netflix will air two NFL games on Christmas Day for Week 17. These two games will have plenty of implications for fantasy football and, of course, for the actual NFL season.
Therefore, I asked the AI Model for its thoughts on both games. Here’s what it came up with for you to consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
- Ravens -4 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
The AI Model believes the Chiefs will add a 24-19 win against the Steelers on the road on Christmas Day. However, you can buy the Chiefs at -2.5. Kansas City is the play in the first Netflix Christmas game.
The Chiefs Keep Winning!
Kansas City defeated the Texans 27-19 on Saturday, the Chiefs’ second win by one score. Kansas City’s differential is only 5.2 points. However, the Chiefs are still 14-1 and the best team in the NFL.
Analytically, they certainly aren’t the best team. But they have good coaching and great leadership and can always wiggle out of games with a win.
A Two-Game Losing Streak For Pittsburgh
For the first time this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers have lost two consecutive games. However, those two losses came on the road against Philadelphia and Baltimore, which aren’t exactly easy places to win.
Now they’ll be home as slight underdogs against the Chiefs.
Ultimately, Patrick Mahomes has a bad ankle and played on it Saturday. It’ll be hard to recover so quickly for a Wednesday game. While Mahomes looked fine running around, he’ll have to face a Pittsburgh defense that is normally very good at rushing the passer. This could get Mahomes out of rhythm a bit.
The Pick
That said, the Pittsburgh secondary hasn’t been very good, and with Kansas City’s pass rush playing at a high level, I’ll still stick with the best quarterback in the league to find a way.
Back the Chiefs at -2.5 per our AI Model.
NFL Pick: Chiefs -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at NRG Stadium
The AI Model suggests the Ravens will escape with a six-point win on the road over the Texans. With the Ravens at -4, you’ll want to back the favorite against the spread in this game, too.
Tank Dell’s Done
The Houston Texans lost Tank Dell for the season with a knee injury. He’s the second Texans wide receiver to get a season-ending injury. Stefon Diggs is already on the injured reserve and is done for the season.
That leaves Nico Collins as the lone starter that is still available. Collins leads the team with 908 yards and six touchdowns. He should have an elite game against a Ravens defense that has allowed nearly 255 yards per game in the air.
However, Baltimore still has a capable pass rush and has done well stopping the run, allowing just 83.13 yards per game on the ground this season. Don’t sleep on the Ravens’ ability to make plays with their defensive linemen. Dell’s absence will be seriously detrimental, as the Texans could find themselves in a third-and-somewhat-long situation.
Can Lamar Jackson Win The MVP Again?
I’m sure Lamar Jackson only cares about beating the Texans. But another MVP would be pretty sweet, too. Jackson has thrown for 3,787 yards with 37 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He’s also rushed for 765 yards on 126 attempts and has averaged 6.1 yards per play on the ground.
With Houston’s missed tackles piling up this season, I’d expect Jackson and his running back, Derrick Henry, to have big games. The Texans have only allowed 106.80 yards per game, but the missed tackles are a major reason for this. Henry is great at breaking tackles, and Jackson is great at breaking ankles.
That said, Houston has a reliable secondary, and Jackson must be smart with the ball. That said, with the second-highest QBR and only four interceptions on the season, he’s been just that.
The Ravens are 10-5 and have clinched a playoff berth. Yet, they haven’t clinched the NFC North. They’re playing to win this game. It’ll be even better for the Ravens if the Chiefs win earlier. That would mean if the Ravens win after the Chiefs win, they’d be in first place in the AFC North.
The Pick
Take the Ravens at -4.
NFL Pick: Ravens -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
