The 2024 NFL draft starts Thursday night, and everyone has an opinion on what their team should do with their top pick in the 1st round. Still, no matter how logical your pick might be, NFL teams are notorious for going against the grain in the draft.
Sometimes a need is not strong enough to reach for a player the team does not value. In that case, the best player available is the pick to make.
At a top-rated sportsbook like Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review), you can find betting markets for which position NFL teams will draft with their top pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Many of these teams have better than even odds that they’ll be favoring a certain position over the field.
Our task is to do some 2024 NFL draft matchmaking and find the best value bets for which position a team may go for with their 1st pick that the MLB odds do not necessarily favor.
Remember, you have to expect the unexpected on draft night in the NFL.
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Las Vegas Raiders – Cornerback
These are the top 3 positions with the highest odds (via Bet365) for the Raiders to use their 1st pick on in the draft:
- Offensive lineman (+130)
- Cornerback (+170)
- Quarterback (+350)
The Raiders hold the No. 13 pick, which puts them in a solid position to take their offensive tackle or corner of choice. However, it puts them at a disservice for the quarterback they also need as the top 4 should be gone by then.
While Michael Penix Jr. of Washington has been favored to end up with the Raiders, it is quite unlikely they are pulling the trigger at No. 13. That might happen with a trade down, or it could happen in the 2nd round with their 2nd pick.
Cornering Success
Still, you get solid odds either way here, and we think corner is the way to go as this team forges a new defensive identity under full-time coach Antonio Pierce. That’s the side of the ball he wants to lean on, and corner is a bigger need for this roster. They have Jakorian Bennett penciled in as a starter, and the 4th-round rookie was demoted to special teams late last year under Pierce’s watch.
Young players get better, of course, but you are not going to win in the AFC without any real strength at corner. The Raiders could have their pick of the best corners in the draft with Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) and Terrion Arnold (Alabama) both possibly available. At the very least, one of them should be there, and we think the Raiders will turn in the card for a top corner.
NFL Pick: LV Raiders – Position of 1st Drafted Player in 2024 NFL Draft – Cornerback (+170) at Bet365
Seattle Seahawks – Defensive Line/Edge
These are the top 3 positions with the highest odds (via Bet365) for the Seahawks to use their 1st pick on in the draft:
- Offensive lineman (-150)
- Defensive line/Edge (+165)
- Quarterback (+1100)
With these odds, it is easy to see why the Seahawks, who hold the No. 16 pick, are likely going to build in the trenches unless they trade down and open up the possibilities to more positions as their top pick.
However, this team is not going for a quarterback before anything else. Geno Smith will get another shot this year for general manager John Schneider. But Schneider has a new coach in Mike Macdonald from Baltimore, and defense remains the biggest issue with this team.
That is why the pick should be defensive to usher in the Macdonald era, and it’s not like the Seahawks are going to use the No. 16 pick on an off-ball linebacker or safety. They went with a corner high last year (Devon Witherspoon), so that probably won’t be the pick again either.
Defensive Front Focus
The shape of the Seattle offensive line may not be superb, but they did just use a 1st-round pick on left tackle Charles Cross in 2022. They brought in veteran Laken Tomlinson at left guard. They have some parts there.
This is a good spot for the Seahawks to go with a defensive lineman whether it’s preventing the Rams from getting Laiatu Latu, or getting a defensive tackle like Byron Murphy to get much younger at that position. They are going to let Macdonald start building the defense up like he did in Baltimore where they achieved a No. 1 ranking in most key categories last season.
NFL Pick: SEA Seahawks – Position of 1st Drafted Player in 2024 NFL Draft – Defensive Line/Edge (+165) at Bet365
Indianapolis Colts – Tight End
These are the top 3 positions with the highest odds (via Bet365) for the Colts to use their 1st pick on in the draft:
- Cornerback (+120)
- Tight end (+300)
- Wide receiver (+300)
The Colts have brought back so much of the defense from last year that the team’s almost been criticized for not going out of town for free agents this year. Maybe the draft is what they’re counting on, and cornerback is the position they’re favored to go as they hold the No. 15 pick.
It makes sense, but at the same time, they have Kenny Moore as their nickel, and they used a 2nd-round pick last year on starter JuJu Brents. They can get better at corner, and you can never have enough good ones, but there are at least options there.
However, what if they get a shot at tight end Brock Bowers from Georgia? He could easily be the best tight end this team has had since Dallas Clark, if not since John Mackey back in the day.
Tight End Temptation
The Colts have not done the best job building up the other weapons after Michael Pittman Jr., so Bowers could be a valuable piece for Shane Steichen, an offensive coach, to play with. The Colts saw promise from tight end Jelani Woods in his 2022 rookie season, but the 3rd-round pick missed last year with an injury, and he’s not someone they can rely on to be a big-time producer.
Bowers could very well slip to No. 15 as tight ends often do in the draft. He would be a nice pickup for a team that is going to have to find ways to score a lot of points in the competitive AFC that’s filled with franchise quarterbacks. Find more weapons for Anthony Richardson, and we know how much of a security blanket the tight end can be for a great passer.
NFL Pick: IND Colts – Position of 1st Drafted Player in 2024 NFL Draft – Tight End (+300) at Bet365
Denver Broncos – Defensive Line/Edge
These are the top 3 positions with the highest odds (via Bet365) for the Broncos to use their 1st pick on in the draft:
- Quarterback (-115)
- Defensive line/Edge (+250)
- Cornerback (+500)
The Broncos are favored to take a quarterback because they obviously need one after cutting Russell Wilson. Trading for Zach Wilson (Jets) is not a solution either, and the other starter in line would be Jarrett Stidham.
Now, Sean Payton is stubborn enough to think his system can work with any quarterback. He tried for years to make Taysom Hill happen in New Orleans. However, this is the same reason why he may not think his team needs to force a trade or aggressive move to get his quarterback in this 1st round.
Chasing the Edge
Maybe the Broncos can take someone like Bo Nix in the 2nd round and be fine with that. Still, with the No. 12 pick, unless Denver trades it to move down, it should be a pick that has good value for the best edge rusher on the board.
That could be anyone from Dallas Turner to Laiatu Latu or Jared Verse. The Broncos are lacking a top pass rusher since letting Bradley Chubb go to Miami. The corner position is more solidified already with Patrick Surtain II leading the way. But improving the edge pressure is a must, and that’s why this is a favorite value bet for your NFL picks on the draft.
The quarterback can be found later for Payton.
NFL Pick: DEN Broncos – Position of 1st Drafted Player in 2024 NFL Draft – Defensive Line/Edge (+250) at Bet365
Kansas City Chiefs – Cornerback
These are the top 3 positions with the highest odds (via Bet365) for the Chiefs to use their 1st pick on in the draft:
- Wide receiver (-120)
- Offensive lineman (+180)
- Cornerback (+600)
Everyone and their mother has mocked the Chiefs for taking a wide receiver with the No. 32 pick in the draft. However, what if this team is really satisfied with the group it has? After all, the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill in 2022 and didn’t make huge moves to fix it and still won a Super Bowl.
Last year, the Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster, drafted Rashee Rice in the 2nd round, led the league in dropped passes, and they still won another Super Bowl. Obviously, things need to get better at that position, and with Travis Kelce about to turn 35, they have to think about the future of weapons for Patrick Mahomes.
Still, maybe the Chiefs won’t be as high on those Texas wide receivers (Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell) as others. Maybe they also aren’t ready to take Ladd McConkey (Georgia) at that pick.
The Rashee Rice car crash incident is a concern as discipline should eventually come for that by the league. However, it is unlikely going to lead to prison time and the end of their working relationship. Rice is going to play for the Chiefs again, so it’s not like they have to replace their WR1 for good.
Also, general manager Brett Veach recently said Kadarius Toney, even after his horrible 2023 season, still might be the team’s most talented receiver. So, that can be a good glimpse inside the front office and how they evaluate the position. They don’t need a 1st-round receiver to succeed. They have Mahomes and Andy Reid. This draft is also deep, so they could get a wideout on Day 2.
Cornering the Market
The offensive line could see some love in the draft, but we’re going for the biggest value and taking corner with +600 odds as Kansas City’s top pick. The Chiefs lost L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans, and that is a considerable loss. But this is what the Chiefs do. They had Charvarius Ward as a starting corner in 2019-21, then let him go to San Francisco for bigger money.
What made that move easier to make? The rise of Sneed, who was just a 4th-round pick himself in 2020, and he built his way up to being a very good corner in 2023. But it was paying Chris Jones or paying a corner, and the Chiefs chose correctly with the pass rusher. In coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, he does not need a Darrelle Revis or Sauce Gardner type of stud to lock things down.
Now, the Chiefs can repeat the cycle by adding another corner and building him up over the length of his rookie contract. There could be some good corners available at that No. 32 pick, including Nate Wiggins (Clemson) and Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama).
The funniest power move of the entire draft would be the Chiefs trading up to select Georgia tight end Brock Bowers as the eventual replacement for Kelce, but tight end is +6000 to be Kansas City’s top pick.
We’ll cut that by a tenth and go with the +600 odds for the Chiefs taking a corner before any other position in the 2024 NFL draft. Get that Sneed replacement.
NFL Pick: KC Chiefs – Position of 1st Drafted Player in 2024 NFL Draft – Cornerback (+600) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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