The 2024 NFL draft figures to be another pivotal one with franchise quarterbacks, No. 1 wide receivers, quality left tackles and one great tight end (Brock Bowers) among those prospects up for grabs in the 1st round.
We know the Chicago Bears are a near lock to use the No. 1 overall pick on USC quarterback Caleb Williams, but everyone else has tougher decisions to make.
We look at the 2024 NFL draft team strategy for teams picking in the top 10 and what the best bets are for which players they should take with odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review), a top-rated sportsbook.
New England Patriots – No. 3 Overall Pick
If you are the Patriots, you have to come away with a quarterback in this draft.
They already traded Mac Jones to Jacksonville, so that era is over. Jerod Mayo is taking over for Bill Belichick at head coach and he needs a new quarterback to build up.
The Commanders, owners of the No. 2 pick, may make this one simple for them as they are likely to take Heisman winner Jayden Daniels from LSU. That leaves Drake Maye of North Carolina as the top quarterback on the board, and maybe the only thing stopping this pick from happening is if owner Robert Kraft feels like there’s some déjà vu if they take J.J. McCarthy, another Michigan quarterback like Tom Brady was in 2000.
In fact, McCarthy has the 2nd-best odds (+250) to go to New England with the No. 3 pick. However, Maye is the favorite with -120 odds, and his skillset and situation may work better for what the Patriots need as they do not have the support system around their young quarterback that Michigan put around McCarthy.
Maye was more capable of having to carry a team, and his numbers did not decrease that much in 2023 after losing his top receivers to the NFL. We’ll stick with the chalk pick and for the Patriots to make Maye their next attempt at replacing Brady at the most important position.
NFL Pick: Number 3 Overall Pick – Drake Maye (-120) at Bet365
Arizona Cardinals – No. 4 Overall Pick
Here we have another pick where J.J. McCarthy (+350) has the 2nd-highest odds to go to. That does not mean the Cardinals are looking to replace Kyler Murray in this draft. This is more about a team like the Broncos or Vikings trading up to No. 4 to make sure they get their quarterback in McCarthy.
Maybe the Cardinals entertain that thought given how deep this class is at wide receiver, so they accept the trade and trade down to get a receiver later. They also pick 27th in the round, so those Texas wideouts (Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell) should be available to them.
However, we are going to stick with the Cardinals making this pick at No. 4, and Marvin Harrison Jr. makes the most sense as the most polished wideout in this draft. We know his father was a Hall of Famer with the Colts, and he has carried on the genes of having great hands and route-running skills. He is also 3 inches taller than his father was, but he still maintains excellent speed and is a consistent, big-time producer.
Some people may like Malik Nabers (LSU) or Rome Odunze (Washington) better at wide receiver, but Harrison Jr. is the consensus best wideout in this draft. He should be going No. 4 to an Arizona offense that lost Marquise Brown to the Chiefs.
NFL Pick: Number 4 Overall Pick – Marvin Harrison Jr. (-200) at Bet365
Los Angeles Chargers – No. 5 Overall Pick
This No. 5 pick feels like the big butterfly effect part of this draft where many different paths can be launched from what happens here. The top 4 picks should be fairly chalk with the trio of quarterbacks and Marvin Harrison Jr. going to the teams holding those picks.
Still, the Chargers are not a lock to just sit there and take a wide receiver, a position they have willingly let go this offseason with Mike Williams (Jets) and Keenan Allen (Bears) both gone. We know they want to run the ball more under the new coaching staff, and they may feel wide receiver is so deep that they don’t need to use a No. 5 pick on that position.
That is why we are calling this a trade, and the Vikings are the team that moves up ahead of the Giants at No. 6 to make sure they get their quarterback in J.J. McCarthy. He can be coached to fit Kevin O’Connell’s scheme, and they have an elite talent there to help him in Justin Jefferson, and last year’s pick Jordan Addison also looks like a weapon.
The Vikings need a quarterback after letting Kirk Cousins go to Atlanta, so they are not going to risk the Giants getting frisky with McCarthy as they look to possibly replace Daniel Jones. We’ll give McCarthy to the Vikings with the No. 5 pick, and it is worth pointing out that Bet365 also has a bet where McCarthy’s draft position is over/under 5.5, and under 5.5 has -200 odds.
Let’s get nuts and take a chance, Minnesota.
NFL Pick: Number 5 Overall Pick – J.J. McCarthy (+350) at Bet365
New York Giants – No. 6 Overall Pick
Sad that the top quarterbacks are gone, the Giants decide to get a top wide receiver, a position they have really stumbled over for years ever since Odell Beckham Jr.’s health went south.
The Giants should have their choice of Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, and this is a pretty close battle in the eyes of most experts. It’s not nearly the same consensus as those who have Marvin Harrison Jr. ranked No. 1 among the whole class of wideouts.
However, Nabers (+150) has the edge in odds over Odunze (+350), and we think they will go with the LSU prospect as that school has been crushing it lately with prospects like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase going to the NFL with great success.
Maybe Daniel Jones isn’t the long-term answer at quarterback in New York, but let’s make Nabers the long-term answer at wide receiver for the next quarterback.
NFL Pick: Number 6 Overall Pick – Malik Nabers (+150) at Bet365
Tennessee Titans – No. 7 Overall Pick
With the Titans, multiple positions are on the table. Still, you have to think wide receiver is not likely with the deal they gave to Calvin Ridley, prying him from the Jaguars after a year. They also spent big money on Kansas City corner L’Jarius Sneed, so they don’t need to go with a cornerback with this pick.
When you think of the Titans, you think of offensive linemen anyway like Mike Munchak, Bruce Matthews, Kevin Mawae, etc. Last year they used a high pick on guard Peter Skoronski.
There is a new coaching staff in town, and that includes head coach Brian Callahan, who was the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati. What was the common complaint in that offense? The line didn’t protect Joe Burrow well enough.
Look for the Titans to bolster the offensive line, keep building in the trenches and do whatever is necessary for quarterback Will Levis in his 2nd year. That means taking Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt, a team captain and the consensus-best tackle prospect in this class.
NFL Pick: Number 7 Overall Pick – Joe Alt (-120) at Bet365
Atlanta Falcons – No. 8 Overall Pick
The Falcons made a huge move in free agency by bringing in quarterback Kirk Cousins. He already has solid weapons at every level too. But what is something Cousins almost never has in his career? A defense, which you would know if you followed his career closely in Washington and Minnesota.
Cousins has been on that Matthew Stafford trajectory in his career, and maybe that’s a good thing he is going to the Falcons. Their new coaches, Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson come over from the Rams, who helped Stafford win a Super Bowl in 2021.
The Falcons need a young edge rusher, and the best one in this draft is Alabama’s Dallas Turner, the favorite to be the 1st defensive player taken. We’re already at the No. 8 pick, so it is time for a defender to finally go. The Falcons were led in sacks last year by players in their 30s who are not part of the long-term plan in Atlanta.
Turner would be that piece they have been looking for up front to help that pass rush.
NFL Pick: Number 8 Overall Pick – Dallas Turner (+200) at Bet365
Chicago Bears – No. 9 Overall Pick
The Bears are loaded with a pair of top 9 picks this year, and fans are going to be interested in adding another weapon for Caleb Williams, the team’s likely No. 1 pick. They could add another receiver in Rome Odunze or go for that top tight end in Brock Bowers.
It is understandable why fans would feel that way, but the Bears are looking good at those positions for a change. They still have D.J. Moore, and they traded for Keenan Allen to give them essentially a pair of No. 1 receivers. They also got a breakout year from Cole Kmet at tight end.
It’s not illegal to add on at those positions, and it’s not like those players are locked up for the long term in Chicago. But it would be a bit of overkill when there are other pressing needs available.
That’s why we are going with Jared Verse, the edge rusher from Florida State. It is not uncommon to see a run on a position in the draft, and we just had Dallas Turner go to Atlanta at No. 8. This is the run on edge rushers as Verse is the next-best option, and the Bears could use him as a bookend duo with Montez Sweat. They need defensive help more than offense right now.
NFL Pick: Number 9 Overall Pick – Jared Verse (+400) at Bet365
New York Jets – No. 10 Overall Pick
The odds-on favorite for the Jets at No. 10 is Georgia tight end Brock Bowers (+200). The move would certainly make sense as the Jets could stand an upgrade from Tyler Conklin at that position, and Bowers is easily the best tight end in the draft.
But historically, tight ends are overlooked in the draft. Even last year, Dalton Kincaid (Bills) went a solid 10 picks later than he was projected to by most people.
There’s also the fact that Aaron Rodgers is generally not a quarterback who loves to throw to the tight end position. He loves his wide receivers, and the Jets already upgraded there by bringing in Mike Williams from the Chargers, so the need to add Rome Odunze is not that high at all here.
However, this could be a spot where a team badly in need of Odunze would trade up with the Jets, who don’t have the greatest selection for their needs with this pick. But what kind of team would want to trade up to No. 10 for a top wide receiver? Buffalo immediately comes to mind after trading Stefon Diggs, but would the Jets actually make this trade to help a division rival? Not likely.
The Jets still feel like a team that will build through the trenches. They struggled on the offensive line last year, and while they did bring in veterans Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, those are not long-term moves at all.
It may not be the flashiest move to make with a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers in town, but let’s go with the Jets to take Penn State offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu, who has the 3rd-best odds to go to the No. 10 pick as the 2nd tackle off the board.
NFL Pick: Number 10 Overall Pick – Olumuyiwa Fashanu (+650) at Bet365
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