The 2024 Olympics are finally here! While there is no competition on Friday, on Saturday we get a good slate of competition that begins in the early morning for Americans.
Three games, from soccer and basketball, interest me today: Iraq vs. Argentina, Brazil vs. France, and Greece vs. Canada.
Soccer Pick
- Iraq +1.5 (-117)
Basketball Picks
- Brazil-France Over 158.5 (-120)
- Greece-Canada Under 172.5 (-120)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Iraq vs. Argentina (Soccer)
Saturday, July 27, 2024 – 09:00 AM ET at Groupama Stadium
Iraq Can Score
Iraq is a heavy underdog to Argentina, and I think this is very wrong. Now, you can hardly blame the bookmakers for lining the game as they did. Argentina is a big name in the football world while Iraq, obviously, is not.
But we can find tremendous value in this game just by looking past the names. Just look at each team’s recent results.
On Iraq’s side, you’ll see a clear ability to score goals. Indeed, in its opening match, Iraq scored two goals in its victory over Ukraine. The Iraqis boast reliable goal-scorers, such as Aymen Hussein, who is one of the top goal-scorers in Iraq’s history. Thanks to the likes of Hussein, Iraq has scored three goals in three of its last five matches.
Argentina’s Poor Defense
Morocco in the opening match scored two goals against this Argentinian defense, with both of those goals coming fairly early in the match, so Morocco was able to gain a comfortable 2-0 lead before it held on.
Giving up goals is indeed a consistent problem for the Argentinians, who have given up a combined total of ten goals in their past five matches. They won just one of those matches.
This is clearly a vulnerable Argentinian side, and I find that Iraq is being underrated tremendously by oddsmakers.
Soccer Pick: Iraq +1.5 (-117) at Bet365
Brazil vs. France (Basketball)
Saturday, July 27, 2024 – 11:15 AM ET at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
Brazil’s Defense
During its bid to qualify for the Olympics, Brazil’s defense showed signs of being especially vulnerable on defense. For example, they gave up over 70 points to both Montenegro and Cameroon.
While giving up a point total in the 70s isn’t necessarily awful, it says a lot when the opponents are Montenegro and Cameroon.
Brazil is weak at stopping the basketball. Its rim protection is also poor. These are players who are mostly working on their game overseas – they are primarily not steeled by NBA-level competition.
France’s Offense
France is going to achieve a much higher point total against Brazil than the likes of Montenegro and Cameroon did. Powered by NBA players such as young sensation Victor Wembanyama, France has strong inside scoring that Brazil’s feeble rim protection won’t stop.
Its inside scoring talent is complemented by the shooting of guards like Evan Fournier, who currently plays for the Detroit Pistons.
Takeaway
Now, Brazil is going to score some points, too. The NBA experience that its players do have consists in guys who can be effective on the pick-and-roll, such as former Los Angeles Laker Marcelo Huertas, who can also shoot.
Brazil will score more than enough points to help the game go over.
Basketball Pick: Over 158.5 (-120) at Bet365
Greece vs. Canada (Basketball)
Saturday, July 27, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
Greece’s Issues on Offense
My main issue with Greece’s chances in this game is that its offensive is too easy to stop. Yes, Giannis is very good, but he’s only one player.
Serbia, for example, shut down the Greeks by double- or even triple-teaming Giannis. When Giannis gets this much defensive stress, he lacks teammates to bail him out. Kostas Sloukas, for example, is a big miss – his three-point shooting would have helped.
Canada’s Strong Defensive Unit
But Canada also has well-established perimeter defenders, tough-minded pests like Dillon Brooks and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who reliably receive All-NBA Defensive Team votes.
With Greece lacking NBA talent outside of Giannis, Canada’s perimeter defenders are going to lock down Giannis’ teammates without having to devote any significant attention to them.
My point here is that Canada can focus on stopping Giannis while the rest of its players, who are strong perimeter defenders, take care of Giannis’ low-talent teammates.
Giannis’ Defense
Giannis is also an annual candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. His length and athleticism especially make him an excellent help-side defender. His presence in the paint will help keep Canada from scoring too many points.
Basketball Pick: Under 172.5 (-120) at Bet365
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