Though the Tampa Bay Downs racetrack lacks the panache of neighboring Gulfstream Park, this track has stood the test of time and attracted excellent fields in March for the Tampa Bay Derby.
2024 Tampa Bay Derby Info
- Race Status: Grade 3
- Distance: Race 1 1/16 miles
- Conditions: Dirt
- Purse: $400,000
The first-ever Derby in these parts was run in 1981. The following year, the TB Derby champion – Reinvested – went on to finish third in the Kentucky Derby, which brought notoriety to the track and the event.
However, this race was given Grade 3 status in 2002 after Tampa Bay Derby runners-up Menifee (1999) and Impeachment (2000) went on to hit the board in Louisville, KY on the first Saturday of May.
Future Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher started bringing his top horses to this race and again was elevated to Grade 2 status in 2011 (now back to Grade 3). Pletcher’s horses won four of the five TB Derby from 2013 to 2017, but before that in 2010, Pletcher’s third-place finisher Super Saver, went on to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
As they say, the rest is history as we look toward this race and the Triple Crown for 2024. Here are our favorites and the morning-line odds you can expect to find at the top betting sites.
In some states, like Colorado Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review) has started offering fixed odds, so be sure to check your local provider to see if you have access to those as well.
2024 Tampa Bay Derby Picks
- Exacta Box: #5 Domestic Product & #7 No More Time
- Win/Place/Show: #1 Heartened
- Place/Show: #10 Sturdy
Tampa Bay Derby
Saturday, March 09, 2024 – Race 11 – Post Time 05:18 PM ET at Tampa Bay Downs
| Post Position | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | M/L |
| 1 | Heartened (KY) | Jose L. Ortiz | Todd A. Pletcher | 10/1 |
| 2 | Everdoit (FL) | Antonio A. Gallardo | Kevin Rice | 30/1 |
| 3 | Give Me Liberty (KY) | Pablo Morales | Robertino Diodoro | 30/1 |
| 4 | Good Money (KY) | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | Chad C. Brown | 15/1 |
| 5 | Domestic Product (KY) | Tyler Gaffalione | Chad C. Brown | 8/5 |
| 6 | Catire Vizcaya (KY) | Marcos Meneses | Juan Carlos Avila | 30/1 |
| 7 | No More Time (IA) | Javier Castellano | Jose Francisco D’Angelo | 7/5 |
| 8 | Crazy Mason (KY) | Mychel J. Sanchez | Gregory D. Sacco | 12/1 |
| 9 | Grand Mo the First (KY) | Samy Camacho | Victor Barboza, Jr. | 12/1 |
| 10 | Sturdy (KY) | Junior Alvarado | George Weaver | 8/1 |
This Feels Like a Two Horse Race
No More Time is the favorite at 7/5 odds. In four starts NMT has two wins and a place, with the most impressive when he won the Sam F. Davis a month ago as a 3/1 favorite. Trainer Jose D’Angelo seems to have developed a very specific plan for each start and is comfortable with No More Time development and is convinced he will continue to grow.
Expected to run right with the favorite is Domestic Product at 8/5 odds. DP has four starts, winning by 4 1/2 lengths going nine furlongs in October at Aqueduct. That was followed by a December dud at the Remsen. Trainer Chad Brown did not lose faith and Domestic Product came back with a strong 2nd place at the Holy Bull at Gulfstream and appears primed for another quality showing.
Given the overall speed in this field, it is hard to pick against either horse. Betting an exacta box provides coverage, though the payout would not amount to much.
Seeking Greater Value with Longer Odds
As is always the case in horse racing, the favorite wins about 30% of the time, and the second choice, depending on odds, comes in about 10% more of the time. This means 60% of races are won by someone other than those with the two best morning line odds.
For this race, Heartened (10-1) and Sturdy (8-1) appear as the horses that can upset the proverbial apple cart.
Heartened
Heartened is trainer Todd Pletcher’s lone entry, which could mean others are not ready at this time and this is his top choice for this week. As mentioned, Pletcher knows how to win, or at the very least cash at this event. Heartened has cashed in all four starts 1-1-2 and won in his last start against ordinary competition. However, this is not a stacked 10-horse race.
Sturdy
Sturdy makes debut in a Stakes race and is 0-1-2 in three shots. Sturdy has faced better competition than Heartened, which might place him in a better position, finishing 2nd to Domestic Product at this track in October and was 3rd at Saratoga before that, versus Derby quality combatants.
In seeking betting value, you could do worse than a Pletcher horse at this track to win and add Heartened with exotics. Sturdy might not be ready to win but could be a good candidate for Place and or Show and fits verticals behind the favorites.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
