There are 20 horses that have qualified for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Already we have seen two drop out. As of April 15, Heart of Honor and River Thames have decided not to run, which moves up those who had not qualified by the point system closer to getting a chance to run.
This situation will continue to be fluid until at least Churchill Downs, the home of the Derby, posts its morning line odds after the draw occurs, and we know what horses will be in which gates. Online sportsbooks like Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review) have posted odds with the horses that are listed or could be, and we’ve taken a close look at sleepers (by odds) that could be lively on race day, May 3.
Journalism looks like the likely post-time favorite, sitting around +330 in early markets. With back-to-back speed figures of 102 and 108, he’s earned that respect. But the Derby is 10 furlongs, 20 horses deep, and more often than not, it’s the right trip —not just raw talent— that cashes the ticket.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Winner Odds
| The Elite | The Contenders | The Longshots |
|---|---|---|
| Journalism (+333) | Sandman (+1200) | Rodriguez (+1400) |
| Sovereignty (+600) | Tappan Street (+1200) | Baeza (+2000) |
| Luxor Cafe (+1000) | Burnham Square (+1400) | Citizen Bull (+2000) |
Burnham Square (+1400)
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
This colt started his campaign with a smart win in the Holy Bull but was a disappointing 4th in the Fountain of Youth. He rebounded, hitting the line first in the Keeneland Stakes, though the pace was dawdling, which helped him.
Burnham Square is a bit pace-dependent, so if the Derby unfolds with a sluggish pace up front, he might not be the choice guy. (Look for more info closer to race day.) But if the front-runners go moderate or there’s traffic trouble for others, he’s got enough tactical speed to stay close and finish. He needs a “Goldilocks trip”, just the right amount. But the talent is there.
Rodriguez (+1400)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Rodriguez comes in as a classic Baffert play, improving at the right time.
After a modest third in the San Felipe, Baffert made key changes: shipped to Aqueduct, took off the blinkers and the result was a sharp win in the Wood Memorial with a 101-speed figure. He broke clean, tracked a moderate pace and kicked when in the clear. In essence, a textbook Baffert Derby prep performance from a horse that could be ready.
Trip-wise, Rodriquez will need another clean break and forward position. If he draws inside, that could help him secure the spot just off the leaders. At a slower pace, he could control the race early. On a fast one, he’ll need to rate and finish. Either way, his progression puts him on the radar.
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Tiztastic (+2000)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Initially pegged as a turf horse, Tiztastic has reinvented himself on dirt, winning the Louisiana Derby with a strong late move. That effort showed off his stamina and turn of foot, two things you need at Churchill going a mile and a quarter.
He’s going to be a deep closer, so it all comes down to the setup. You’re betting on pace here. If the Derby gets a hot early pace, and it often does, Tiztastic could be the one mowing them down in the final eighth of a mile. Plus, Asmussen knows how to get one peaking at the right time.
Citizen Bull (+2000)
Trainer: John Sadler
For Citizen Bull, the Santa Anita Derby was perceived as your classic “forgive the last race” play. Citizen Bull was the Juvenile champ, stamped as the top 2-year-old after last fall’s Breeders Cup. But his SoCal race was a clunker 87 fig, way off his earlier 98-96 speed numbers.
Still, it’s not uncommon for two-year-old winners to regress slightly early at 3. He may have needed the race or just didn’t fire that day. If he draws a post in the 4-12 range and avoids traffic into the first turn, he has every right to be on the pace.
With his foundation and class, a clean trip could land him right in the mix.
Baeza (+2000)
Trainer: Richard Mandella
Not in the field yet, but close with the two dropouts we mentioned. If there are two more scratches, Baeza is next in line to draw in. And if he does? He might be the sleeper value of the race for a short period.
He was second to highly-touted Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, running a 101 fig and showing he can sit close and finish. He’s versatile, and that’s huge in the Derby chaos. If he sneaks into the starting gate, this might be the one to watch, figuring he’ll outrun his current +2000 odds.
Final Thought
The Derby is all about projecting the trip and finding horses in peak form, not just latching onto the fastest ride. These five horses offer a blend of improving form, right connections and the tools to capitalize if things go their way.
If you’re looking to beat the favorite or spice up your trifecta, these are your potential keys.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
