The Kentucky Derby is on the clock for the 151st Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 3. Horse racing fans and bettors at the sportsbooks have begun or will soon start to learn useful information about which horses will finish where, each certain they will have the winning ticket.
Who will win the first leg of the Triple Crown in Louisville? Journalism is the 3-1 favorite, and he’s gone to the winner’s circle four times in four attempts. Are Sandman and Sovereignty the top challengers in the field? And now that we know the gate assignments, what longshots have a chance?
Top Contenders by the Odds
Journalism (3-1 odds)
Journalism is expected to win as he’s 4-for-4 on dirt tracks and 3-for-3 in stakes races. He has an impressive pedigree and the fastest and most dominant speed profile in the field. He received an ideal draw at #8, and trainer Michael McCarthy and jockey Umberto Rispoli are well-regarded to give their horse the best shot at winning. The one to beat.
Best Speed Rating: 108
Sovereignty (5-1)
Sovereignty has distinguished himself as a strong closer, with past wins at Churchill Downs as well as Gulfstream Park. The Bill Mott-trained colt has recent wins at Fountain of Youth and Street Sense, and runner-up finishes at the Florida Derby and MSW at Aqueduct. This is an elite dirt racer who can win.
Best Speed Rating: 98
Sandman (6-1)
Sandman has superb tactical speed, stamina, and graded-stakes form. Sandman enters the Derby in peak form, having recently captured the 1 1/8-mile at the Arkansas Derby. He’s known as a deep closer (often at the back of the pack at mid-race). Trainer and jockey Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado will have to determine what kind of pace they’ll see, because if it’s average to slow, that works against their horse.
Best Speed Rating: 95
Mid-Priced Contenders
Burnham Square (12-1)
Burnham Square is a flat-out closer. That’s how he won all three of his races for trainer Ian Wilkes, including the Blue Grass, coming off the pace from seventh to hit the finish line first. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. knows his horse and understands how closers work at Churchill, having ridden winner Mystik Dan last year.
Best Speed Rating: 96
Rodriguez (12-1)
It’s a Bob Baffert-trained horse, which is often enough for most bettors on the 1st Saturday in May with six Derby wins. Rodriguez benefited from being the lone speed in the Wood Memorial, as both his wins were produced when he raced right on the lead. The challenge in this field is similarity, with many others who like to jump out of the gate and more than enough finishers who could compromise his gate-to-wire hopes.
Best Speed Rating: 101
Luxor Cafe (15-1)
Luxor Cafe was sired by the 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and has raced exclusively six times in Japan. LC won four of those races and is well regarded for having a nice closing kick. This could fit him well in a field loaded with suspect gate speed. Japan-bred Forever Young finished 3rd in the Derby in 2024, otherwise, the biggest concern is the lack of top-end competition.
Best Speed Rating: NA
Baeza (12-1)
Note: As of Sunday, not in the field.
Baeza is more than qualified enough to be in this field, but since going to the points system 12 years ago with a limit of 20 horses, some horses don’t stand out as two-year-olds, or others from the same barn have looked stronger. Bazea was a strong second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. If he can make the field, even coming out of the #20 gate, he can be a factor.
Best Speed Rating: 101
Long Shot Contenders
Tiztastic (20-1)
Tiztastic has experienced some ups and downs throughout his eight career races, but he’s entering Derby weekend in solid form. With a win at Kentucky Downs in September and, most recently, the Louisiana Derby in March, Tiztastic could thrive in the lengthy dirt track of the Derby. At the very least, he’s a good trifecta or superfecta target.
Best Speed Rating: 95
Publisher (20-1)
Having yet to win in seven tries, Publisher won’t be on everyone’s radar. However, take note, Irad Ortiz Jr. will be in the irons and he’s not going to ride a slug horse. Trainer Steve Assmussen suited up Publisher with blinkers after a fourth in the Rebel and he came back with a second in the Arkansas Derby.
Best Speed Rating: 101
Coal Battle (30-1)
Coal Battle sure appears the best of the 30-1 shots entering Saturday. With five wins on dirt since last July and a strong third in the Arkansas Derby in late March, this horse has excellent acceleration out of the gate, impressive tactical versatility, and quality closing speed. Give Coal Battle a lengthy look.
Best Speed Rating: 95
Return here Thursday for our complete betting preview for the Kentucky Derby with our free picks.
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