There have been many blowouts to begin the NBA Playoffs. However, tonight’s two games should be a lot tighter according to our AI Model. Therefore, I reviewed all of its projections and wrote about the two best player props on the slate below. Let’s have a night!
The Picks
- Mikal Bridges Under 1.5 Threes (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- James Harden Over 23.5 Points (-108) at Bet365
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks
Monday, April 21, 2025 – 7:30 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden
The AI Model believes Mikal Bridges will earn .904 threes tonight against the Pistons. Yet, his three-point prop is currently at 1.5, with the Under at -115. That’s a big play for tonight.
Mikal Bridges Isn’t Playing His Best!
The Knicks aren’t getting the best out of Mikal Bridges right now. As a matter of fact, he’s delivered no threes in each of his last two games, including Game 1 against the Pistons.
He even saw his minutes diminish against the Pistons after Cameron Payne proved to be more valuable on the floor than Bridges in Game 1.
Ultimately, Bridges has attempted 3.4 threes per game over the last ten games. Yet, he’s only hit 1.2 threes per game. He’s shot just above 30% from downtown over that ten-game span and has shot worse than 35% in four of his last five games from three.
Clearly, the Knicks aren’t playing games. If something isn’t working, they’re willing to make a fix and keep their prized small forward off the floor for an extended period of time. Bridges hasn’t made the impact offensively that the Knicks hoped. He’s also not asserting himself as a playmaker.
Meanwhile, the Pistons rank 10th in the NBA in points allowed to small forwards. The Pistons also rank 10th in three-point attempts allowed to small forwards this season. Ultimately, the Pistons defend the small forward the best out of any position. That’s going to affect Bridges and his ability to hit shots consistently.
Let’s side with the AI Model and take Bridges to go Under 1.5 threes at -115.
NBA Pick: Mikal Bridges Under 1.5 Threes (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Monday, April 21, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT Ball Arena
Our AI Model suggests James Harden will score 27.703 points tonight against the Nuggets. Meanwhile, his consensus line is just at 23.5, with the over at -108. It’s in your best interest to roll with Harden’s point total tonight.
Will James Harden Stay Hot?
The Los Angeles Clippers point guard scored 32 points against the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of the series. He’s added at least 32 points in three of his last four games and has totaled at least 24 points in 60% of his last 20 games.
Harden still has an ideal matchup against the Nuggets. The Nuggets already rank 18th in points allowed to point guards this season. However, they also rank 25th in three-pointers made, 26th in three-pointers attempted, and 27th in three-point field goal percentage from point guards this season.
Additionally, the Nuggets rank 24th in field goal percentage allowed to point guards.
On the other hand, James Harden has a usage of nearly 29% over the last ten games. He’s also attempted 17.6% of shots per game in the previous ten games and has shot 48.3% from the field.
Furthermore, Harden has delivered 35.2% from downtown over the last ten games and has added at least four threes in three of his previous four games. In Game 1 of this series, Harden drained four of nine from downtown and shot 50% from the field on 22 shots in the game.
He should be able to sustain that kind of production against the Nuggets moving forward.
Take James Harden to go Over 23.5 points using the AI Model.
NBA Pick: James Harden Over 23.5 Points (-108) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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