The NCAA Tournament starts on Tuesday, not Thursday! However, the First Four already have four games scheduled on Tuesday and Wednesday. Therefore, I went to the AI Model to see some of its predictions for these games.
Here are three best bets you should consider at the top-rated sportsbooks. And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert covered the St. Francis PA vs. Alabama State and North Carolina vs. San Diego State games!
Picks Summary
- Mount St. Mary’s/American University Under 131.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review
- Xavier -2.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers vs. American University Eagles
Wednesday, March 19, 2025 – 06:40 PM ET at UD Arena
The Turnover Margin Will Be High!
The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers have given up 21.7% of turnovers on offense. They’ve also earned just 15.9% of turnovers on defense. Meanwhile, American University has an above-average turnover differential and has added 17.6% of turnovers on defense while limiting turnovers to only 16.8% on the offensive end.
Ultimately, Mount St. Mary’s should find success inside the arc. It’s just the fact that the Mountaineers could lose a possession every four or five trips. That’s really bad. Also, the American doesn’t allow a high rate of offensive rebounds.
Off misses, the American should be disciplined and able to defend the glass.
American University Doesn’t Do The Little Things
American might earn a high rate of turnovers, but the Eagles have consistently struggled to land offensive rebounds and foul shots this season. That’s not ideal, primarily since the Mountaineers have held teams to 28.3% of offensive rebounds and a very low FTA/FGA ratio.
In addition, the Mountaineers have limited teams to 31.4% from deep and 48.7% from inside the arc. Nothing will come easy for American University.
The Pick
Think about taking the Under 131.5 in this game.
NCAAB Pick: Mount St. Mary’s/American University Under 131.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Xavier Musketeers vs. Texas Longhorns
Wednesday, March 19, 2025 – 09:10 PM ET at UD Arena
Xavier Plays Together!
The Xavier Musketeers have shot a 53.9% effective field goal percentage. In addition, Xavier has turned the ball over only 16% of the time and has shot 79.4% from the foul line. Xavier ranks 4th in college basketball in assists to field goals made.
The Musketeers share the ball and play very efficiently. They’re just unable to add a high rate of offensive rebounds. That said, Xavier should still be able to consistently get to the foul line, especially since Texas has allowed teams to earn nearly 30% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
Where Can Texas Take Advantage?
The Texas Longhorns have shot a weaker effective field goal percentage but played in a more difficult conference in the SEC. That said. Texas has added 29.8% of offensive rebounds and likely won’t earn as many second chances as Xavier.
The Longhorns have also made fewer threes and will likely not get to the foul line as often as Xavier. After all, Xavier has allowed a 28.1 FTA/FGA ratio, which is way lower than Texas’ 39.3 ratio on defense. Xavier’s defense ranks 44th nationally, per Kenpom. There is no area where Xavier is poor.
Overall, they’re a much better defense, and it should show on Wednesday.
The Pick
Let’s back Xavier at -2.5 against the spread.
NCAAB Pick: Xavier -2.5 (-110) at Bet365
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