While the 2025 NFL Draft is here, it would be a lie to say that anything is a given outside of maybe the top 3 picks (Cam Ward, Travis Hunter, and Abdul Carter). After months of experts agreeing this is a tricky class with a lot of players who are close in caliber in the top 50 prospects, you could see a lot of respectable names slip into the 2nd round.
The defensive line is considered the strongest part of this class with some experts believing 35 of those players (including edge rushers) could go in the top 100 picks. Does that make teams delay taking those players until the 2nd and 3rd rounds on Friday night, or do they still take those prospects in the 1st round? We’ll find out Thursday.
But in trying to find good betting value at Bet365 just hours before the draft, you can’t be afraid to think outside the box. Maybe nothing as nutty as Atlanta drafting Michael Penix Jr. No. 8 overall will happen this year, but there aren’t many dumb ideas to suggest right now given the makeup of this class.
The Picks
- To Be a 1st-Round Pick – James Pearce Jr. (-150)
- Number 8 Overall Pick – Jalon Walker (-120)
- Team to Draft Tyler Warren – Indianapolis Colts (+165)
- Exact Position of 1st Team Pick – Los Angeles Rams – Quarterback (+475)
- Exact Position of 1st Team Pick – Pittsburgh Steelers – Defensive Line/Edge (+145)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
To Be a 1st-Round Pick: James Pearce Jr.
At Bet365, James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee) has -150 odds to be a 1st-round pick. He’s one of the many edge rushers in this draft hoping to crack the 1st round, but he’s a better bet than most to do so.
Pearce Jr. was productive in college with 17.5 sacks in his last 2 seasons at Tennessee. He may be a little undersized for stopping the run, but he has an explosive pass-rushing ability (quick twitch) that NFL teams love to see on tape.
There is that dilemma of having too many pass rushers in this draft, which could delay teams taking them, but the smart teams picking late in the 1st round should know that you need pass rush to win championships.
That’s why teams like the Bills, Commanders, Ravens, Chiefs, Lions, and even the Eagles at No. 32 (lost Josh Sweat to Arizona) should all be considering Pearce Jr. late in the 1st round, where he will likely go.
And one of those teams will be better for making the pick.
The Pick: To Be a 1st-Round Pick – James Pearce Jr. (-150) at Bet365
Number 8 Overall Pick
At Bet365, the No. 8 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is currently held by the Carolina Panthers, and these are the players with the best odds to go there:
- LB Jalon Walker, Georgia (-120)
- Edge Mykel Williams, Georgia (+450)
- WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona (+600)
- DT Mason Graham, Michigan (+700)
This should be one of the best values in the top 8 picks this year. You have to figure by the time the Panthers are on the clock, the top offensive tackles (Will Campbell and Armand Membou) are off the board. Running back Ashton Jeanty is gone. Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter are long gone.
It’s possible wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan is already gone too if the Jets were to draft him at No. 7. But the Panthers also seem to be confident that Xavier Legette, their high pick last year, can develop into a WR1 for them.
But one thing the Panthers lost that they’ve seemingly always had since the team started in 1995 was a good middle linebacker. Someone who can play off the ball and make a lot of plays. They had Luke Kuechly for years, then it was still Shaq Thompson as their leader, but they released Thompson this offseason.
Jalon Walker is the top-ranked off-ball linebacker in this draft. He won a championship at Georgia and was the Dick Butkus Award winner (best linebacker in the nation) in 2023. He’s a great athlete and would fit in well for the Panthers.
It’s a chalk pick, but it feels like the right one for the Panthers here.
The Pick: Number 8 Overall Pick – Jalon Walker (-120) at Bet365
Team to Draft Tyler Warren
At Bet365, Penn State tight end Tyler Warren has the following odds to go to these teams (only top 5 listed):
- Indianapolis Colts (+165)
- New York Jets (+280)
- Chicago Bears (+300)
- New Orleans Saints (+650)
- San Francisco 49ers (+1500)
The 49ers still have George Kittle and this is way too much of a luxury pick for them. The Saints just paid Juwan Johnson a 3-year extension worth over $30 million, so this wouldn’t be a wise move for a team with more pressing needs.
A lot of people love the idea of Tyler Warren going to the Bears at No. 10. But let’s believe that Ben Johnson thinks Cole Kmet is good enough to play the role of Sam LaPorta in his offense, and they need offensive line help more before they start adding more skill players. Don’t forget why the 2024 Bears stunk. It was the offensive line.
Also, Warren has -225 odds at Bet365 for his draft position to be over 9.5, so that’s not a good sign for the Jets (No. 7 pick) to take him. The Jets have Justin Fields, someone who doesn’t throw the ball a lot but does hold it a lot. That’s why offensive tackles have been most commonly mocked to them as they try to get their running game going stronger for Fields.
Other Teams Unlikely to Target a Tight End
Maybe the Bears pull it off, but if they decline, then the 49ers, Cowboys, and Dolphins are not teams who should be targeting a tight end. Miami kind of fell in love with Jonnu Smith late last season, and the Cowboys need a wide receiver way more than they need another tight end with Jake Ferguson in town.
That’s why things set up perfectly for the Colts at No. 14, a team that basically hasn’t had a reliable tight end since Dallas Clark in the 2000s. Warren even has drawn comparisons to Clark and wears his jersey number. It might be the kind of security blanket receiver with a good catch radius that can help Anthony Richardson on those errant throws.
Let’s send Warren to the Colts and Shane Steichen’s offense.
The Pick: Team to Draft Tyler Warren – Indianapolis Colts (+165) at Bet365
Exact Position of 1st Team Pick – Los Angeles Rams
At Bet365, you can bet on which position a team will use its 1st draft pick on. These are the positions with the highest odds (top 6 only) for the Los Angeles Rams’ 1st pick (No. 26) in the draft:
- Cornerback (+240)
- Offensive Lineman (+290)
- Quarterback (+475)
- Tight End (+650)
- Defensive Lineman/Edge (+700)
- Wide Receiver (+900)
The Rams have added Davante Adams to go along with Puka Nacua, so they are set at wide receiver with those guys commanding many targets. They have also been drafting great defensive linemen ever since Aaron Donald retired, and they already added Jared Verse last year before he won Defensive Rookie of the Year. They should be set there.
The best tight ends may already be gone by the time the Rams make their pick, but it’s also not a huge part of Sean McVay’s offense.
You can never have enough good offensive linemen and corners in the NFL, and you could make the case that the Rams are built to win now with an old quarterback in Matthew Stafford (37).
But that’s also exactly what makes them poised to be a team that drafts their next quarterback now. Whether it’s Jaxson Dart or ending a free-fall night for Shedeur Sanders, the Rams could be in a prime position at No. 26 to nab McVay’s quarterback for life after Stafford. It’s the kind of bold move you only get away with as a successful coach.
The Pick: Exact Position of 1st Team Pick – Los Angeles Rams – Quarterback (+475) at Bet365
Exact Position of 1st Team Pick – Pittsburgh Steelers
At Bet365, you can bet on which position a team will use its 1st draft pick on. These are the positions with the highest odds (top 5 only) for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 1st pick (No. 21) in the draft:
- Defensive Lineman/Edge (+145)
- Quarterback (+190)
- Running Back (+750)
- Cornerback (+900)
- Offensive Lineman (+900)
Everyone thinks the Steelers have pinned themselves into a corner where they have to draft a quarterback after letting go of Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Kyle Allen. That’s true, but it does not necessarily have to be a 1st-round pick on Thursday night.
A lot of people are expecting the Steelers to take Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, as he’s experiencing a slide in his odds across all sportsbooks. But if Sanders falls to No. 21, the Steelers need to recognize that’s a red flag when 20 teams looked at the supposed QB2 in this draft and declined.
It’s the same logic from 2022 when the Steelers should have realized no one biting on the quarterbacks was valuable information before they wasted the No. 20 pick on Kenny Pickett.
Questionable Fit in Pittsburgh
Sanders comes with red flags and is a questionable fit. He takes too many sacks, he doesn’t have quick-hitting wide receivers in this offense to help him get in a rhythm, and yes, it’s valid to point out his overbearing father (Deion Sanders) has been his only head coach since college. It’s just not a great fit.
The Steelers could always use Friday night to take a quarterback, preferably Alabama’s Jalen Milroe if they go that route. But the Aaron Rodgers decision should have no bearing on this pick. He’s not the quarterback of the future either even if he eventually signs with the team.
But if these quarterbacks aren’t the real deal, then they shouldn’t settle. In fact, they should do what they often do under Mike Tomlin and replenish the front 7 with a talented player. That’s why the No. 21 pick would likely be better served taking Oregon’s Derrick Harmon as someone who can learn from Cam Heyward before he replaces him.
Harmon or someone else, the Steelers should go defensive line/edge with their 1st pick in this draft. The quarterbacks are just not it this year.
The Pick: Exact Position of 1st Team Pick – Pittsburgh Steelers – Defensive Line/Edge (+145) at Bet365
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