We’re headed to the Final Four. To the public, it looks like the UConn Huskies are the team to beat. Let’s see if our computers agree!
Picks Summary
- UConn -12 (-110)
- Under 161.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. UConn Huskies
Saturday, April 06, 2024 – 08:49 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
The AI Model likes UConn to add a 12-point win over Alabama in the second Final Four matchup on Saturday. The Huskies continue to blowout competition and Alabama will likely be the next culprit.
The Alabama Crimson Tide began the NCAA Tournament as a No. 4 seed. Despite being a No. 4 seed, the Crimson Tide are in the Final Four after wins against Charleston, Grand Canyon, North Carolina and Clemson. The only upset and surprise win by Alabama was against North Carolina. In the other games, Alabama was projected to win.
That said, Alabama lost its first SEC Tournament game and finished the regular season 1-2 with losses to Tennessee and Florida. Alabama even almost lost to Arkansas but escaped with a four-point home victory in overtime.
UConn’s Dominance
They’re nothing like UConn. The Huskies have the nation’s longest winning streak at 11. They’ve also won every game but one since December 20.
In the NCAA Tournament, UConn has earned 25-point victories or more in three of four games. They’ve also been tested more than Alabama, having to face Northwestern, San Diego State, and Illinois.
The Huskies just go on runs that can’t be stopped. The playmaking ability and IQ of the team is like no other.
That’s why the Huskies rank No. 1 in offensive efficiency per KenPom. UConn has shot 35.8% from deep and 59.1% from inside the arc. The Huskies have also turned the ball over just 14.7% of the time and have added 36.6% of offensive rebounds.
This is all significant. While Alabama has played better defensively overall, the Crimson Tide has not been a consistent defense this season. Alabama has earned just 15.4% of turnovers and has allowed 30.9% of offensive rebounds. The Crimson Tide have also fouled at a very high rate and have given up 50.7% from inside the arc.
UConn has hit 59.1% from inside the arc and should be able to find their way around the rim against the Crimson Tide. It’s up to UConn to stop Alabama’s shot-making. Alabama has nailed 37.1% from deep and 57.1% from inside the arc. They’re just as good offensively but don’t have the defense that the Huskies have.
Siding with The Huskies
UConn has held opponents to 30.9% from deep and 43% from inside the arc. With that kind of defense around the rim, Alabama will be forced to take many three-point shots.
They’re used to doing that. It’s just unlikely Alabama hits at a super high percentage with UConn’s defense being one of the elite defenses in the nation.
UConn is better on the defensive glass and doesn’t foul nearly as much. When the Huskies earn a higher rate of foul shots, shoot a better percentage from the field and win the rebounding battle, UConn should be able to cover the 12-point spread at -110 betting odds.
I’m with the AI Model. The Huskies at -12 is valuable, after all.
NCAAB Pick: UConn -12 (-110) at Bet365
The Total Pick
Alabama has played in a lot of high-scoring games this season. However, the Huskies have one of the best defenses in the nation and typically use 18.5 seconds per play on the offensive end.
That should slow the tempo of the game down. While the Huskies are super efficient on offense, you can expect Alabama’s efficiency to weaken against the Huskies.
Points Projection
With a total of 161.5, it takes two to tango. If each team scores 80 points, that still wouldn’t be enough to hit the Over.
UConn should limit Alabama at the foul line and will likely hold Alabama to a lower shooting percentage. Both teams are good from the foul line, but only UConn will see the charity stripe at a higher rate.
Meanwhile there likely won’t be a high rate of turnovers in this game. That means not as many fastbreak points or easy buckets. While there will be long rebounds and easy outlet passes for fastbreak points, it’ll still be limited based on the fact that both teams are good at handling the ball under pressure.
Therefore, we’ll back the Under 161.5 via Bet365, one of our top sportsbooks. The AI Model has this game reaching 157 points. So there’s plenty of value on the Under here.
NCAAB Pick: Under 161.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
