Of all the improbable late-season matchups that nobody could have ever dreamed of in August, this is the top of this writer’s list. No question that Notre Dame having a single loss on the fourth Saturday in November was a possibility. But what about the Army at 9-0 for the first time in 75 years?
Plus, the Black Knights on the Hudson are still in contention if they win three more times and the American Conference title game for a berth into the first-ever college football tournament. The luckiest winner in all this is NBC who has the telecast.
Let’s take a look at the current betting odds at top sportsbooks and find our picks for this exciting game.
NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame -14.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Army Black Knights vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 7:00 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
We Start with a History Lesson About These Two Teams
The first game between these teams was played in 1913 and Notre Dame won 35-13 with a method that revolutionized the sport, the forward pass. Now moving ahead to the 1940s.
Back in those days, polls decided who won championships, and Army and Notre Dame dominated this decade, winning a combined six national championships, four by the Fighting Irish and two by the Cadets (their nickname at the time).
There were several legendary players, coaches, and elements associated with that era. We won’t bore you rehashing them but if you love the history of college football, you can Google it and be entertained.
Army Has to Play Their Game and Play Mistake-Free Football
Army (9-0, 7-1-1 ATS) has not beaten Notre Dame since 1958, which happened 16 meetings ago. There were a couple of close calls in 1995 (28-27) and 1998 (20-17), otherwise, the results are one-sided.
Often in the past, the Cadets/Black Knights wanted to play hard and do their best, but winning wasn’t the most important aspect. This time it is for the Army, as they have as many season dreams as their opponent.
In terms of talent, Notre Dame as a 14.5-point favorite tells the story of who the better team is on a neutral field. Though the Irish have faced three other ranked teams, none have the offensive precision as the No. 18 ranked Army.
The Black Knights have the #1 rushing offense in the country at 334.9 yards a game. (#2 UCF is better than 72 yards behind). This offense is expertly run by senior QB Bryson Daily who leads the team in rushing. The element of surprise still exists as seven of Daily’s 29 pass completions have resulted in touchdowns.
All credit goes to coach Jeff Monken, in his 11th season at West Point. The Army has not had a losing season in four years and only one since 2016. The academies have been known for triple-option football for years, but Monken and his staff have added so many variables that they are harder than ever to prepare for.
What separates this Army squad is their defense, #3 in stopping the run (82.6 YPG) and they’ve conceded just three rushing TDs.
Notre Dame Has to Make Their Strengths Work
The most notable part of this Notre Dame (9-1, 7-2-1 ATS) is its domineering defense. These teams don’t play regularly as Notre Dame does against Navy, but it’s been decades since the stakes for both were this high. The Irish are #5 in total defense, #3 in scoring defense, and #2 in pass defense.
Teams have moved the ball for a drive or two to start games, but once defensive coordinator Al Golden gets a beat on the opposing club’s offense, he turns it off like a faucet.
The Fighting Irish defense has NFL ability in the defense front and secondary. The benefit for them in this matchup, they have the pass defenders to contain what the Army wants to throw at them, which gives them more bodies to stop the Army run offense.
A big help for Marcus Freeman’s crew is having played Navy. While the two offenses are somewhat different, the principles are the same. The biggest piece of the puzzle to slow the option offense is defensive penetration, which pushes those teams behind the chains.
The Notre Dame offense revolves around QB Riley Leonard. The senior is a skilled runner who has escapability for being 6’4 and his long strides eat up yardage as runner. Since the Louisville game, Leonard started throwing passes more naturally and regained his confidence. That has opened up the pass offense as a weapon, especially in the other team’s territory, and specifically more in the red zone.
When Leonard’s throws are on target, that makes his club’s #12 run offense even stronger.
Who Is the Right Side for the Black Knights vs. Fighting Irish?
In spite of the Army’s amazing success, one cannot overlook the Black Knights’ strength of schedule. PhilSteele.com has the Black Knights playing the easiest slate in the country at #134 and ESPN has them as next to last at #133. That doesn’t take away one thing they’ve accomplished. Nonetheless, the Army now has to face what is regarded as one of the best six teams in the country.
Don’t look for Notre Dame to take the Army for granted which has occurred in the past, at least for a half. The Irish players and coaches have watched the film and understand Coach Monken’s squad has earned their perfect record. Yet, if both teams played their best, Notre Dame would have the bigger, stronger, and more physically gifted team.
The Notre Dame size and speed over 60 minutes is sure to wear Army down and if Coach Freeman’s club develops a working margin, and the Knights have to pass on third and long repeatedly, we witnessed what happened to the Navy in that circumstance.
That’s not to say this will be a blowout. The fact is oddsmakers made this a 17-point spread to start for a reason. Make it Notre Dame by 20.
NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame -14.5 (-110) at Caesars SportsbookÂ
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