For Georgia fans, it was like losing twice to Alabama, trailing 28-0 when the game seemed over, only to come back and take a miraculous 34-33 lead with just 2:31 remaining. Then, with just 13 seconds of game time elapsed the Crimson Tide scored on one play, a 75-yard catch and run, which sealed the Bulldogs’ fate at 41-34. Georgia now has to move on.
If you schedule five consecutive home games to start a season, you would probably think they would have a winning record before venturing out on the road. That has not happened for Auburn, who lost three of five at Jordan-Hare Stadium, and the Tiger faithful are restless.
NCAAF Pick: Georgia -24 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Auburn Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, October 05, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Sanford Stadium
Auburn Draws as Tough Assignment as Possible
At 2-3 (2-3 ATS), Auburn’s first away game is at Georgia who comes in off a loss.
For coach Hugh Freeze and company, everyone’s exasperated. While anyone can disagree with coach Freeze’s assessment the Tigers could be 5-0, that seems more like wishful thinking.
The truth is when you have committed a turnover in all five games and with two or more in four of your five contests and are -11 in turnover margin, it could be deemed a 1-4 record is not out of the question either.
Take away the 73 points against Alabama A&M and the 45 versus New Mexico, Auburn has totaled 49 points against better competition. That point total is not going to beat many power conference competitors.
The fact is Freeze has not the necessary production out of quarterbacks Payton Thorne or Hank Brown. Auburn is #23 in total offense thanks to their two blowouts. That’s not to say the Tigers haven’t moved the ball, with 342 yards against Arkansas and 482 facing Oklahoma, but their season average of 14.4 yards per point jumps to 18.4 when you eliminate their wins facing lesser teams.
Auburn’s an above-average #50 in yards given up and they’ve placed in some tough situations with their 15 offensive turnovers. What Freeze’s defense has not done is make big stops when the team needed it most in the fourth quarter.
All Not is Lost for Georgia
Though Georgia (3-1 & 1-3 ATS) was unquestionably dissatisfied losing to Alabama yet again, coach Kirby Smart can come away with several positives and numerous teaching points moving forward.
For the first time in years, Georgia didn’t look ready to match the opposing home team’s intensity. In truth, that also felt the same at Kentucky, but the Wildcats didn’t have Alabama’s offensive firepower.
The Crimson Tide exposed weaknesses in the Bulldogs’ secondary, especially with receivers with high-level speed.
Though Georgia was in position to win at Tuscaloosa, they lost the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball and are lacking in the usual depth with injuries on the offensive and defensive lines.
If the Bulldogs can return to health, despite a rugged slate ahead, the talent is still as good as anyone’s among the starters on offense and defense.
QB Carson Beck has the arm talent to play in the NFL. At the same time, he still needs to improve on looking off receivers and not staring down his main target, which has led to interceptions.
Georgia can still reach the playoffs, but they have to make progress to improve because they will not win on talent alone.
Who Is the Right Side for the Tigers vs. Bulldogs?
The rivalry between Auburn and Georgia is known as the “Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry”, which began in 1892. This is tied for the second-oldest rivalry in college football.
Georgia owns an 18-7 (16-9 ATS) mark in the past 25 battles and they have dominated most recently. The Bulldogs have chewed up the Tigers to the tune of 9-1 and 8-2 ATS in the past decade.
It almost goes without saying (though we still will), that Auburn cannot turn the ball over to stay even in this contest. No doubt Smart’s defense will be slapping at the pigskin when Auburn possesses it and they will try and lure the Tigers QBs into miscues to add to their nine picks. The Auburn offense has to score touchdowns when they reach the Georgia 30-yard line.
The Bulldogs’ offensive line has to help the offense and start opening more holes in the run game. Ranking #102 in rushing is very un-Georgia-like.
Expect Smart’s squad to bounce back from last week’s setback and back them at -110 NCAAF odds. Auburn comes in only 1-5 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards a play and falls by 27 or more points.
NCAAF Pick: Georgia -24 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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