Today we take a look at the NFL odds for Monday night’s game between the Bears and Vikings to find our best bets for this game. Check it out!
NFL Pick: Vikings -7 (+100) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Monday, December 16, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
The Angle
It’s never a good idea to simply bet in accordance with what transpired the week before, because things often change from week to week. But just because things often change doesn’t mean that they never remain the same.
There’s a good reason why the Bears got blown out last week that explains why it’ll happen again. Head coach Matt Eberflus was fired, creating a ripple effect of negative consequences.
On defense, the unit is worse because Eberflus is known as a defensive mastermind and is no longer available to help. Chicago’s offense is likewise worse because its coordinator has been promoted to interim head coach, making him unable to help the offense because he now has to worry about the entire team.
With Chicago’s coaching situation remaining dire, we can only expect results like last week’s to continue. The slumping 49ers woke up to blow out Chicago 38-13.
Quarterback Caleb Williams regressed, throwing for all of 134 yards, and the defense allowed a San Francisco team missing its key offensive lineman and its top two running backs to attain a season-high point total. San Francisco went up 21-0 in the first half of the second quarter and was able to coast to a big win.
Road Struggles
Chicago struggled last week also because the game took place in San Francisco.
Playing on the road has been difficult for the Bears all season, where they remain winless on the year.
Outlook for Caleb Williams
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams’ completion percentage is almost ten points lower on the road than it is at home. His passer rating is likewise almost 20 points lower in away games than in home games. Minnesota, led by defensive mastermind Brian Flores, has a very tough pass defense.
The Vikings are difficult for quarterbacks to navigate. They tend to succumb to pressure before they figure out Minnesota’s coverage. Among other specific things, Flores employs variations of Quarters whereby the opposing quarterback struggles to know who is covering whom and who will be open.
Flores’ difficult pass defense ranks third at limiting opposing passer rating and will have a uniquely soft challenge because of Chicago’s lack of coaching competence.
Chicago Can’t Run Well, Either
Minnesota has the second-best run defense and has a soft test on Monday.
Chicago’s starting running back D’Andre Swift is averaging all of 3.4 YPC since November.
Defenses have been able to stop him this entire year without often devoting eight or more defenders to the box. They can more easily focus on stopping Chicago’s pass attack thanks to Swift’s struggles to be effective.
Aaron Jones and Cam Akers
Conversely, Minnesota’s top two running backs have both been very efficient. Most recently, Aaron Jones and Cam Akers ran for 5.6 YPC and 7.4 YPC, respectively, against Atlanta’s 17th-ranked run defense. For comparison’s sake, Chicago’s run defense ranks 26th.
The Bears just struggled against San Francisco’s third-string running back, allowing Isaac Guerendo to achieve 5.2 YPC and two rushing touchdowns.
Their run defense is getting worse not only because of the aforementioned coaching changes, but also because their defensive line lacks depth. Defensive tackle Andrew Billings is on IR, and his team lacks alternatives.
Sam Darnold and Weapons
Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold enters Monday’s game having exceeded 110 in his passer rating in each of his last three games.
Darnold has been highly efficient and productive, amassing a combined total of eleven touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last four games, with his victims including Tennessee’s number-one ranked pass defense.
Last week against the Bears, San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy exceeded 300 passing yards without the services of one injured wide receiver and with another key wide receiver barely doing anything as part of a prolonged slump.
Minnesota’s pass-catching crew is healthy and stacked, with one of the best wide receivers in Justin Jefferson plus other weapons, such as Jordan Addison, who has really been coming alive in recent weeks with a combined total of well over 300 receiving yards in his past three games. Former Pro Bowl selection T.J. Hockenson at tight end has also found his groove.
Chicago’s top cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, has been relatively poor for a while, such as when he allowed 102 receiving yards to Green Bay wide receiver Christian Watson in Week 11, and yet Chicago doesn’t have better options at cornerback than Johnson.
The Takeaway
When these two teams met, Minnesota did not play four quarters. The game went into overtime because the Vikings allowed the Bears to rally.
Rest assured that, given the fact that they almost blew the first meeting, the Vikings will take the Bears seriously for all four quarters.
In this rematch, Chicago suffers from debilitating coaching- and matchup-related disadvantages that will result in a Minnesota blowout win.
NFL Pick: Vikings -7 (+100) at Bet365Â
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