The top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Monday night’s game between the Bengals and Cowboys.
NFL Pick: Under 49.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys
Monday, December 09, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
The Over/Under
As of Wednesday morning, the posted total for this game is 49.5. This total is as high as it is largely because of how bad Cincinnati’s overall defensive numbers look.
Their defensive numbers are misleading, however. They are inflated by the good offenses that Cincinnati has faced.
Most recently, the Bengals conceded 44 points to the Steelers, 34 to the Chargers, and 35 to the Ravens. All three of those teams feature strong quarterback play. L.A.’s Justin Herbert is a well-reputed quarterback who has been a force in his team’s revamped offense since its bye week. Both Russell Wilson for the Steelers and Lamar Jackson for the Ravens rank top-five in passer rating.
Cincinnati’s Underrated Defense
Dallas’ offense, led as it is by Cooper Rush instead of Dak Prescott, belongs in an entirely different category than those three offenses. This category, as I will describe it, is one that Cincinnati’s defense reliably succeeds against, which proves that it is underrated in a sense.
Consider that Cincinnati gave up 24 points to the Raiders, with seven of those points coming in last-second garbage-time and seven coming off a pick-six. The Bengals, moreover, held the Browns to 14 points in Cleveland and the Giants to seven points in their venue.
My point here is that the total is too high because Dallas must be expected to struggle to reach a double-digit point total.
Cooper Rush
While Dak Prescott certainly does not deserve to be paid as highly as he is, Cooper Rush still represents a significant downgrade.
Rush does have a nice career-winning record, but Dallas had a much better defense in those days, which it was relying on to get those wins.
His arm talent, for example, is lacking. He musters all of 5.5 yards per attempt. In addition to lacking velocity, his throws lack accuracy especially downfield, where he completes 21.4 percent of his deep balls.
Rush’s inability to throw deep limits him severely as a passer, as it becomes easier for defenses to curtail his productivity.
Rush Lacks Support
Dallas’ offense also suffers from its lack of alternative means of being productive. It ranks 31st in rush offense and lacks a steady number-two wide receiver.
Tony Pollard is now one of Tennessee’s running backs. Brandin Cooks’ production has declined dramatically despite the attention that defenses are devoting to fellow wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.
While recent score lines might suggest that Dallas’ offense has actually been alright, three of their touchdowns in their last two games came through defense or special teams.
When facing the Cowboys, opposing defenses simply don’t have much to worry about.
Dallas’ Run Defense
This game will stay “under” also because of Dallas’ improved run defense.
A healthy Micah Parsons is making a big difference. He is not only getting stops and amassing sacks and pressures. He is also demanding attention from offenses, which is allowing his teammates to be more productive.
With other players getting healthier and the defense as a whole strengthening its understanding of its coordinator’s scheme, Dallas is doing a much better job of limiting the opposing offense’s productivity.
Especially its run defense is better, although you wouldn’t be able to tell if you looked at its run defense stats. Dallas’ run defense stats don’t look attractive, however, purely because it has struggled to contain the running of opposing quarterbacks.
Cincinnati’s quarterback is not likely to run much, though — he typically rushes for just a few yards per game.
However, the Bengals’ running back group will struggle against a defense that has recently held Washington’s Brian Robinson Jr. to 13 rushing yards on five carries and New York’s Tyrone Tracy Jr. to 32 rushing yards on 3.6 YPC. Cincinnati also has the worst run-block win rate.
Dallas’ Pass Rush
For the Bengals, quarterback Joe Burrow will have to contend with pressure, especially from Parsons.
The Bengals have a terrible offensive line, which ranks 26th in pass-block win rate.
Largely thanks to Parsons, Dallas ranks fourth in sack rate and can therefore disrupt Burrow’s rhythm.
While Burrow-led Cincinnati still scored 27 points against the Chargers, most of those points came when the Chargers were playing with a big lead and were therefore soft defensively.
The Chargers, in any case, do not rank quite as highly in sack rate as the Cowboys do. The point holds that Cincinnati’s offense won’t be as productive in the face of a solid pass rush that can really take advantage of its weakness in pass protection.
Looking For an Extra Bet
While I like the “under” for the above reasons, I do think that it is almost trivially true to say that Burrow will make more great plays than Rush.
Cincinnati’s massive advantage at quarterback can hardly be overstated. Burrow ranks fourth in passer rating and leads the NFL in passing yards.
Given his superiority and the fact that Cincinnati’s defense can finally put together another strong performance, the Bengals should win, just as they beat the Giants, Browns, and Raiders teams whose offenses they limited.
It would make sense, therefore, to parlay the Bengals ML with the “under.”
However, given what Dallas’ pass rush can do to Burrow, I am very confident only in the under. If you do play the above parlay, be sure to also play the “under” straight-up.
NFL Pick: Under 49.5 (-110) at Bet365
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
