Top NFL Pick: New York Jets to Make Playoffs – Yes (-139) at BetMGM
Fourteen teams will make the playoffs this NFL season, and you can expect some turnover and new faces as not everyone is going to make it back from the 2022 season.
For instance, 2021-22 serves as the first 2-year sample of the era with 17-game schedules and 14 playoff teams. Only 3-of-7 AFC teams and 4-of-7 NFC teams from 2022 also made the tournament in 2021, so half of the playoff field was new.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are likely teams to return to the tournament after facing each other in the Super Bowl. But is it really that profitable to wager on a team at betting odds of -500 or -300 to make the playoffs?
Using the current playoff odds found at OddsTrader, we wanted to find some of the best value picks you can place right now for teams to make the 2023 playoffs.
New York Jets: End the Drought
The Jets have not been in the playoffs since the 2010 AFC Championship Game, which came two weeks before Aaron Rodgers won his only Super Bowl. That feels like eons ago, but now the two join forces in an unlikely pairing to try to end this 12-season playoff drought for the Jets.
Rodgers does turn 40 in December and is coming off arguably his worst season. Yet, he still found a way to lead the Packers to an 8-9 record, and the offense had better metrics than the lowly Jets finished with behind three different starting quarterbacks on their way to a 7-10 finish.
An Improved Lineup
This move is a gamble, but why wouldn’t the Jets take it after missing the playoffs for a dozen years? You rarely get a chance to add a future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback like this. The concern is Rodgers is past his prime and they are not going to see someone who can win his record-tying fifth MVP award. He will have to prove that, but the fact is Rodgers should have advantages around him he lacked in Green Bay.
First, he should have a No. 1 wide receiver again, as his worst seasons in Green Bay (2015 and 2022) came without one due to Jordy Nelson tearing his ACL in the preseason and last year’s trade of Davante Adams. In New York, Rodgers will have Garrett Wilson, who won the Offensive Rookie of the Year because of how well he played despite three lesser quarterbacks throwing him the ball.
Rodgers could also have a better running game than he is used to if Breece Hall can get back to playing like he was before his injury. If Hall stayed healthy, he might have won Rookie of the Year instead of Wilson.
Then there is the defense, which could quickly become Rodgers’ best friend. While it is hard to sustain defensive success in the NFL, the Jets have a chance to be the best defense Rodgers has had since his 2010 Super Bowl team. The Jets nailed last year’s draft class by adding Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner at corner. They need that type of player in a tough division race with Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle on the other side.
Familiar Faces
We have seen quarterback moves like this work out great right away in the past, including Brett Favre with the 2009 Vikings, Peyton Manning with the 2012 Broncos, Tom Brady with the 2020 Buccaneers, and Matthew Stafford with the 2021 Rams. The last two even won the Super Bowl in their first season with the team.
Granted, the 2022 season may cool the expectations a bit after how poorly things went for Matt Ryan in Indianapolis and Russell Wilson in Denver despite both having high expectations for at least making the playoffs.
But Rodgers may have a leg up here in that he is the better quarterback than those two were, and he is going to a team that should have weapons and a defense. He is also joining a team that brought him familiar weapons from Green Bay in Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, and the key factor could be the addition of offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who helped Rodgers win two more MVP awards in 2020-21. The learning curve should be lower for Rodgers in this offense than it was for Favre, Manning, or Brady in past experiments like this.
The AFC is a tough conference to win right now, and the AFC East is no doubt in the running for the most competitive division in the league. But Rodgers should be revitalized and ready to go, and as long as the team can get through a brutal early schedule before the Week 7 bye, they can get stronger in the second half and be a scary team come playoff time.
NFL Pick: New York Jets to Make Playoffs – Yes (-139) at BetMGM
Green Bay Packers: In LaFleur We Trust?
In the NFC, it is hard to have much faith in teams outside of the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers. They were the three best NFC teams last year and they have a solid shot of being the same this season as well.
There are going to be some openings in that playoff field, especially with Tom Brady retiring in Tampa Bay and leaving the NFC South up for grabs after the other teams all finished 7-10 last year.
The Vikings are a regression red alert after winning 13 games despite being outscored on the season. The Seahawks did not finish the season strong and barely made the playoffs in the first place. The Giants can say the same thing.
LaFleur’s Impact
There are going to be some openings, and why not fill it with a team who has a coach in Matt LaFleur who has won 71.2% of his regular-season games in four years with the Packers?
Even in Aaron Rodgers’ worst season, a 2022 campaign where the Packers had numerous wide receiver injuries in their attempt to get by without Davante Adams, the offense still finished above average at moving the ball. The team still finished 8-9, and they were a drive away from taking the final playoff spot before Rodgers threw an interception against Detroit in Week 18.
Can Jordan Love Fill In Rodger’s Shoes?
The Lions sitting as favorites in the NFC North just does not feel right, but even the wild card options should still be there for Green Bay too. Much of this obviously depends on how well Jordan Love does in replacing Rodgers. In limited action so far, he has been interesting and looked solid against the Eagles in the fourth quarter last season. But it is a really small sample size, and we are just going by the fact that LaFleur did help Rodgers to a career resurgence after some down years to end the Mike McCarthy era.
But the Packers should have better receiver health this year, and Christian Watson looked like a stud down the stretch of his rookie year. The Packers also might be a little better defensively this season. They only allowed more than 28 points once last year in that wild game against the Eagles.
The other thing that should help Green Bay is the schedule, as this team may not face a legitimate 10-win team in 2023 until the Chiefs in Week 13. In fact, that might be the only tough team they face unless the Lions are indeed the real deal or if the Chargers take a step forward.
Gambling on the Packers is gambling on Love in 2023, but with such an unimpressive conference and seven playoff spots that must be filled, the Packers present good value at this stage.
NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers to Make Playoffs – Yes (+165) at BetMGM
Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Ball?
Again, the NFC is a lot easier to crack than the AFC, and the Falcons have a shot at a division title thanks to playing in the NFC South, 2022’s worst division. With Tom Brady gone, it is easy to slide the Buccaneers to the bottom. Carolina may also struggle with Frank Reich trying to coach No. 1 pick Bryce Young in a limited offense.
Arthur Smith’s Falcons have gone 7-10 in both of his seasons, but you could say he’s overachieved a little. The first 7-10 record in 2021 came despite Atlanta being outscored by 146 points that year. In 2022, the team ran the ball more than anyone to hide Marcus Mariota’s flaws, but the Falcons were 4-4 and scoring efficiently before things fell apart a bit.
However, the Falcons drafted Texas running back Bijan Robinson in the first round. It may not be an exceptional draft value, but it is one heck of a player to fit into an offense that wants to run the ball with Desmond Ridder at quarterback. Robinson should be a favorite for Rookie of the Year, and he improves a backfield that still has talent in Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson.
If Ridder can grow with his young playmakers in Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, and tight end Kyle Pitts, then Smith can run an offense that finishes the season strong and gives the Falcons a real shot at the division title.
Defensive Upgrades and Favorable Schedule
Defensively, the Falcons are no strangers to struggling, but they were able to add several veterans in Calais Campbell and David Onyemata on the defensive line, edge rusher Bud Dupree, and safety Jessie Bates.
Again, the schedule is a huge difference-maker as well. The Falcons get six games against the NFC South, four games against the soft AFC South, four games against an NFC North that looks up for grabs, and they get to play teams like the Commanders and Cardinals instead of the Eagles and 49ers.
It would not be that hard for Atlanta to finish with a 9-8 record this year, which should be at least enough for a wild card one year after 8-9 was enough to win the division title.
NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons to Make Playoffs – Yes (+120) at BetMGM
Baltimore Ravens: New Offense
Repeating the playoffs in the AFC figures to be hard, but coach John Harbaugh has been .500 or better in 13-of-15 seasons on the job. The only times he finished with a losing record were in 2015 (5-11) when Joe Flacco tore his ACL and in 2021 (8-9) when Lamar Jackson was injured after an 8-4 start and never played again.
It really is as simple as keeping Jackson upright. It happened again last year when he was injured in December and never played again. Still, the Ravens nearly beat the Bengals in the playoffs with Tyler Huntley fumbling a quarterback sneak that was returned for a 99-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Improved Skill Players
This team is still good and well-coached, and the change at offensive coordinator could make them look different in 2023. Greg Roman is out and Todd Monken is in. Given his background, there should be more passing in Baltimore, which means less of Jackson running, which he can still do as well as about any quarterback not named Justin Fields.
Jackson also should have his best set of skill players barring people stay healthy after a couple of rough seasons in that department. With Mark Andrews, J.K. Dobbins, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Gus Edwards, and newcomers Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers added to the mix, this should be Jackson’s most complete group of weapons.
Nelson Agholor might be the No. 5 wide receiver in this offense, which is pretty solid depth.
Divisional Challenges
The Ravens also had the best defense in the division last year, and we know that side of the ball is usually consistent in Baltimore. The division games are always dogfights, but the Ravens have the talent on both sides of the ball and the coaching experience to navigate another season deep into January.
A division title is also possible as Cincinnati will attempt to win for the third year in a row. But the Ravens’ No. 1 job is to make sure Jackson stays healthy for a full season. If he did in 2021-22, we might be talking about the Ravens aiming for a 3rd-straight AFC North title.
NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens to Make Playoffs – Yes (-152) at BetMGM
