We’ve got 18 games on the MLB odds boards today! It’s going to be an insane day of baseball. With so many opportunities on the board, I narrowed my selections to my top three player prop bets. Which bets will you be tailing?
Picks Summary
- Braxton Garrett Under 4.5 K’s (+125) at BetRivers
- Spencer Strider Over 8.5 K’s (-164) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Billy McKinney Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) at Bet365
Miami Marlins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, July 15, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Braxton Garrett will take the hill for the Marlins tonight. He’s struck out 26.7% of batters this season and 29.1% over the last 30 days. However, he’s only struck 27.4% of righties compared to 34.6% of strikeouts against lefties.
He’ll likely face at least eight right-handed batters tonight as a left-handed pitcher. Therefore, Garrett’s strikeouts will likely stay low. Against righties, Garrett has also allowed a .175 ISO and wOBA of .318 this season. Righties have even hit a 24.6% line drive percentage against Garrett during the previous 30 days.
In the Orioles lineup, the righties have only struck out 16.9% of the time against lefties in the last month. Baltimore has also hit a .411 wOBA against lefties in the last month with their projected lineup. They’ve walked 9.1% of the time and have some guys that will drag the counts out and make Garrett work.
The Orioles will likely score some runs and push Garrett out of the game in five innings.
MLB Pick: Braxton Garrett Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125) at BetRivers
Chicago White Sox vs. Atlanta Braves
Saturday, July 15, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
Spencer Strider has an awesome matchup tonight. The Chicago White Sox have struck out 27.1% of the time against righties over the last 30 days.
Charlie Morton couldn’t get high strikeouts against the White Sox last night, but Strider should be able to reach double-digits in strikeouts tonight. Strider has struck out 37.5% of batters over the last month. He’s also struck out 38.9% of batters this season. He’s striking out more than one better per every three batters that he sees.
The right-hander has kept walks down and has allowed a .061 ISO and wOBA of .238 over the last month. So there’s a good chance he can earn a shutout against the White Sox, just like Morton did last night.
The White Sox have seven batters striking out at least 23.6% of the time against righties in the last month and six batters striking out more than 25% against righties in the last 30 days. Chicago’s offense has also hit a below-average .152 ISO and wOBA of .307 against righties in that time using their projected lineup. On top of that, the White Sox have earned only 5.6% of walks with that lineup against righties.
Strider has earned a high whiff and swinging strike percentage against both sides of the plate over the last month. He’s racked up a 35% whiff percentage and 18.8% swinging strike percentage. Meanwhile, he’s allowed just a 5.1% barrel percentage in the last month. Lefties have been lucky against Strider lately, earning a .406 BABIP. But that won’t last, especially if he continues getting high-ground and limiting fly balls.
Take Strider to go Over 8.5 strikeouts.
MLB Pick: Spencer Strider Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-164) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Yankees vs. Colorado Rockies
Saturday, July 15, 2023 – 8:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
The Yankees are now tied for last place in the AL East, despite having a winning record. Standards are high for the Yankees, though. That’s just how it goes. I like New York to get back on track tonight.
The Yankees are facing Connor Seabold of the Rockies, and he’s struggled badly against both sides of the plate. Over the last month, he’s faced 82 batters and has allowed a .453 ISO and wOBA of .512 to those 82 batters. Lefties have hit a .500 ISO and wOBA of .633 in their last 42 plate appearances against Seabold.
While the Yankees haven’t been the best offense in the MLB, they’ve got some guys hitting at a high rate against righties. Billy McKinney has hit a .200 ISO in the last month. He’s also struck out 18.8% of the time against righties in the previous month. McKinney has smacked 38.9% of hard contact against righties and has one of the highest barrel percentages on the Yankees against righties with an 8.3%.
The Yankees haven’t had much to cheer about with their offense since Aaron Judge left. But Seabold has earned 25.7% of ground balls, 40% of fly balls, and 28.6% of line drives over the last month against lefties.
Billy McKinney has a great matchup, and I will exploit it. Take McKinney to earn at least two total bases tonight.
MLB Pick: Billy McKinney Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) at Bet365
