Although it’s Saturday, most games will still be played at night in the MLB. That gives us plenty of options for the late slate. Here are three player props I’ll be on for tonight.
Picks Summary
- Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at Bet365
- Justin Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) at Bet365
- Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 Total Bases (-103) at BetRivers
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, July 29, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Taj Bradley will get the start for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. Bradley has allowed a .253 ISO and wOBA of .393 to his last 85 batters. He’s also giving up a .343 ISO and wOBA of .444 to his last 39 righties.
Bradley is typically a high-strikeout pitcher,but he’s only struck out 15.4% of righties over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, the Astros have just two batters striking out more than 17% of the time against righties in the last month. Bradley won’t earn many strikeouts and will struggle to get out.
He’ll face Jose Altuve, who just returned to the lineup. Altuve has hit a .300 ISO and wOBA of .364 against his last 12 righties. He’ll likely get three at-bats against Bradley, and with Bradley struggling against righties right now, Altuve is in a great position to earn two base hits or one extra-base hit tonight.
Bradley has allowed nearly 38% of fly balls and 31% of line drives from righties over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, he’s only induced 24.1% of ground balls against righties in that span. He also earns 11.2% of swinging strikes and 20.3% of whiffs against righties. Altuve has hit 37.5% of fly balls and line drives against his last 12 righties.
Let’s back Altuve to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s game at +120 betting odds.
MLB Pick: Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at Bet365
Boston Red Sox vs. San Francisco Giants
Saturday, July 29, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Although the Giants are starting Ryan Walker, Anthony DeSclafani will pitch the bulk of tonight’s game for the Giants. DeSclafani has allowed a .488 ISO and wOBA of .522 against his last 45 batters.
You can pick your poison when it comes to the Red Sox bats. Boston’s lineup has combined to hit a .268 ISO and wOBA of .398 against righties over the last month. DeSclafani has only struck out 15% of righties compared to 28% of lefties over the last 30 days. There’s a higher probability that a right-hander puts the ball in play against DeSclafani.
DeSclafani has allowed 46.7% of line drives from righties and has earned only 13.3% of ground balls. He’s also allowed 40% of hard contact and a 20% barrel percentage against righties.
The hottest righty in the Red Sox lineup is Justin Turner. Turner has slugged a .314 ISO and wOBA of .403 against his last 58 righties. He’s also limited strikeouts to under 20% in that time against righties and has hit over 37% of fly balls and line drives. Let’s take a chance with Justin Turner to earn at least two base hits tonight.
MLB Pick: Justin Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) at Bet365
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, July 29, 2023 – 7:15 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
The Orioles are seeing some regression out of Tyler Wells recently. He had a terrific first half for the Orioles on the mound, but he’s struggled in the second half. Wells has watched his last 59 righties hit a .286 ISO and wOBA of 378 and he has only struck out 13.6% of those righties and has rarely induced any ground balls over the entire season.
Instead, Wells has given up 24.4% of line drives and 31.7% of fly balls to righties over the last 30 days. He’s also watched righties hit a 58.5% hard contact rate against him throughout the last 30 days. Wells isn’t fooling anyone right now.
Gleyber Torres will likely lead off for the Yankees tonight. Against his last 64 righties, Torres has hit a .186 ISO and wOBA of .379 with only 12.5% of strikeouts. Torres has consistently hit the ball hard and has hit over 24% of line drives against righties. At the top of the lineup, he’ll potentially get five opportunities to hit a couple of base hits or earn one extra-base hit.
If he puts the ball in play five times, I’d like to think he’ll get two base hits or find the hole in the gap at least once. Let’s take Torres to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s game against Wells and the Orioles.
MLB Pick: Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 Total Bases (-103) at BetRivers
