Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.
Two games interest me as worth investing in:
- Padres vs. Rockies
- Red Sox vs. Mariners
For your top prop picks, I will recommend that you invest in a weak pitching performance from Colorado’s Austin Gomber and in strong pitching performances from Boston’s Nick Pivetta and Seattle’s George Kirby.
Picks Summary
- Austin Gomber Over 3.5 Earned Runs -120 at Bet365
- Nick Pivetta Under 2.5 Earned Runs -155 at Bet365
- George Kirby Under 2.5 Earned Runs -130 at Bet365
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Monday, July 31, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Austin Gomber (Colorado Rockies)Â
Austin Gomber starts for the Rockies today. His recent starts create a misleadingly positive impression of him.
In these starts, he has benefitted from facing soft tests, such as Washington’s lineup, and from yielding a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His low opposing BABIP in these starts has been fortunate given the extent to which he continues to allow hard contact.
Opponents are crushing his pitches – his last three opponents made hard contact on over 42 percent of his pitches.
Gomber’s ArsenalÂ
Primarily, Gomber throws a fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. The low quality of his pitches largely explains why opposing batters are so easily able to crush his pitches.
For example, his fastball places in the 15th percentile in velocity and in the 24th percentile in spin. These numbers suggest that batters have a rather easy time keeping up with and tracking the movement of their fastball. Yet he lacks alternative pitches: he is committed to throwing his weak fastball at a high rate in every game.
Besides lacking in velocity and spin, his pitches generally also lack impressive movement. These factors make it easy for batters to avoid chasing their pitches when they see them land outside the strike zone.
Batters can readily be selective and wait for Gomber to throw pitches in hittable locations.
Padres LineupÂ
San Diego’s hitting outlook is strong today because it ranks fourth with a .441 slugging rate against Gomber’s pitches from lefties.
This stat is particularly impressive because San Diego’s home ballpark, where it plays most of its games, is characteristically pitcher-friendly.
They will do great damage in Colorado’s mega-hitter-friendly ballpark. They’re already averaging over five runs in their last three games, which took place in San Diego.
MLB Prop Pick: Austin Gomber Over 3.5 Earned Runs -120 at Bet365
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, July 31, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Nick Pivetta (Boston Red Sox)
Boston starts Nick Pivetta tonight.
Pivetta enters tonight’s game in the strong form: he has not allowed a run in his last 12 innings of work. While those innings took place in relief, those strong innings justified his return to the rotation.
In terms of his career work, he is anyhow more used to being a starter. His current form is particularly impressive because he has sustained it against the toughest of challenges.
Most recently, he locked down the Braves, allowing zero runs to them in five innings.
Pivetta’s Arsenal
Primarily, Pivetta throws a fastball, curveball, and slider.
With these pitches, he has been throwing out more batters per nine innings than he ever had before in his career. The quality of his pitches allows him to throw them outside of the strike zone because he commonly induces batters to chase them.
He can also get away with throwing pitches in locations within the strike zone that are normally favorable to batters. For example, his fastball enjoys strong spin and vertical movement. Even more so, his curveball does the same, placing in the 85th percentile in spin rate.
Such spin and movement make it difficult for batters to follow and track the location of his fastball and curveball.
While the quality of his pitches gives him a greater margin of error, his command has improved. Evidence of his strong command is in the improved rate at which he concedes walks.
Nowadays, batters do not get cheap gifts when facing Pivetta.
Mariners BattersÂ
Pivetta has already proved his worth against several Seattle batters.
For example, Teoscar Hernandez is 3-for-21 with five strikeouts in his career facing Pivetta.
MLB Prop Pick: Nick Pivetta Under 2.5 Earned Runs -155 at Bet365
George Kirby (Seattle Mariners)Â
George Kirby starts for the Mariners today.
Kirby is in a must-back situation, a bounce-back spot. While bettors may be inclined to go against him in view of his last start, in which he allowed five earned runs, it should be the opposite.
Kirby has allowed five earned runs or more on three separate occasions already. Directly following each such start, he allowed zero earned runs while lasting at least six and as many as eight innings.
His last start was anyhow misleading. While he allowed a lot of runs, he suffered from yielding an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 2.78 FIP in that start reflects how well he actually performed individually. So, in addition to being in a bounce-back spot, he enjoys strong form.
Kirby’s form is also evident in the 19-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last two starts.
Kirby’s Arsenal
Primarily, Kirby throws a fastball, sinker, slider, and curveball.
These pitches combine to make up about 94 percent of his arsenal. It is intelligent of him to throw his fastball and sinker most often because they are his two most effective pitches.
While opponents slug .389 against his fastball, they slug .370 against his sinker. Both pitches enjoy strong velocity, the effect of which is maximized by the way he plays them off his other pitches.
For example, he is very comfortable throwing a curveball. This pitch averages 81.7 mph.
It is very difficult for batters to transition from facing Kirby’s slow curveball to trying to deal with his heater, especially when he throws the latter along a border of the strike zone, which heat maps show he is often able to do.
MLB Prop Pick: George Kirby Under 2.5 Earned Runs -130 at Bet365
