We’ve got an exciting slate of games tonight in the MLB. I’ve got three player props that I’m hoping to profit on with tonight’s slate. Will you join me?
Picks Summary
- Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) at Bet365
- Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases(-108) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Johan Oviedo Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, July 6, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The Yankees will pitch Luis Severino tonight, who’s had a rough go since coming off the injured list. He’s allowed 190 batters to hit a .235 ISO and wOBA of .384. Lefties have smacked a .235 ISO and wOBA of .384, while righties have hit a .250 ISO and wOBA of .397.
It’s been even worse over the last month too. He’s allowed his previous 125 batters to smash a .241 ISO and wOBA of .411. He’s been awful against both sides of the plate but has worse strikeout numbers against lefties as a right-handed batter.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on a Baltimore Orioles lineup that has hit a .176 ISO and wOBA of .324 over the last month against righties. The projected lineup has also struck out under 20% of the time against righties.
The Orioles should have at least seven lefties in the lineup tonight, including Gunnar Henderson, who has smashed a .304 ISO and wOBA of .396 against his last 73 righties.
Henderson has hit 68.2% of hard contact and over 27% of line drives against righties. Severino has given up 30% of line drives in the last month to lefties and will likely struggle against Henderson, who will bat at the top of the order.
Let’s back Henderson to earn at least two total bases tonight.
MLB Pick: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) at Bet365
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Thursday, July 6, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Jordan Lyles will take the mound for one of the worst teams in baseball. The Kansas City Royals aren’t close to the playoffs this year. They’re at the bottom of the standings in the American League.
Jordan Lyles hasn’t been much help to the Royals as a starter. He’s struck out only 10.6% of batters in the last month and has watched 393 batters smack a .238 ISO and wOBA of .340 against him this season.
That’s a massive sample size for Lyles. We’re almost at the All-Star break, and he’s been awful. Against his last 45 lefties, Lyles has allowed a .214 ISO and wOBA of .422. He’s also struck out under 7% of left-handed batters in the previous month.
On the other hand, Jose Ramirez is a switch-hitter who will bat from the left side against Lyles. He’s smacked a .288 ISO and wOBA of .469 over the last month against righties.
Ramirez has struck out only 10.3% of the time. He’s also hit 38.3% of line drives and fly balls against righties in the last 30 days. On top of that, Ramirez has minimized ground balls and has hit 48.3% of hard contact against righties in the previous month.
Lyles won’t earn many whiffs or swinging strikes. He’s also giving up a 10.3% barrel percentage, above average. Lefties have hit a .351 BABIP in the last month, up from .254 throughout the season.
All of the hard contact and line drives are finally getting to Lyles. Take Ramirez to record a hit.
MLB Pick: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases(-108) at Caesars Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, July 6, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Johan Oviedo will get the start for the Pirates tonight. He’s only struck out 18.5% of batters in the last month and has watched his last 124 batters hit a .168 ISO and wOBA of .340. He’s been better against righties, limiting the extra-base hits. But lefties have hit a .189 ISO and wOBA of .322 over the last month against him.
The Dodgers have combined to hit a .347 wOBA against righties in the last month with their projected lineup. They’ve got more lefties than righties in their lineup and have struck out just 22.1% of the time against righties in the last 30 days.
The Dodgers have three batters striking out over 31% of the time. But they’ve got six other batters striking out 21.4% or fewer against righties.
Oviedo isn’t earning a high whiff or swinging percentage against either side of the plate. He’s also allowed a high barrel percentage and is giving up close to 46% of hard contact. I’ll root for the Dodgers and take Oviedo to go Under his strikeout total of 4.5 at -105 betting odds.
MLB Pick: Johan Oviedo Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
