We’ve got more player props with tonight’s slate of games. I’m feeling confident that we’ll earn some profit tonight. If you are, too, ride these MLB player props with me!
Picks Summary
- Merrill Kelly Over 6.5 K’s (+110) at BetMGM
- Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140) at Bet365
- Michael Wacha Over 4.5 K’s (-143) at BetMGM
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, June 19, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Merrill Kelly has been excellent this season. He’s struck out over 30% of batters in the last month while limiting walks to just 7.4%. He’s also held teams to a .143 ISO and wOBA of .249 and has earned 50% of ground balls in the last 30 days.
Not only has he earned a high rate of strikeouts, but he’s done so well that he’s likely to stick around in tonight’s game, potentially beyond six innings. Kelly has limited fly balls to 22.4% and has allowed under 20% of line drives in the last month. He’s also earning a high whiff percentage and allowing a BABIP of just .222 in the last month.
Tonight, he’ll take on a Brewers lineup that has struck out 27.7% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. Milwaukee only has two batters striking out fewer than 26.5% of the time against righties. Kelly has seven legitimate targets in this Milwaukee lineup and would need seven strikeouts total after going through the lineup multiple times.
The Brewers have also hit a .283 wOBA against righties in the last month. So there’s a high probability Kelly goes deep and earns a high rate of strikeouts.
MLB Prop Pick: Merrill Kelly Over 6.5 K’s (+110) at BetMGM
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
Monday, June 19, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
There aren’t many areas to look at in this game. Hunter Brown and Max Scherzer have both been pretty dominant analytically.
However, there’s one thing I can point out. Hunter Brown has allowed a .209 ISO to his last 47 lefties. The right-hander has been worse against lefties in the last month and throughout the year. He’s allowing a high hard-hit percentage and giving up a 16.7% barrel percentage against lefties in the last month.
He’s also allowed a BABIP of .364 to his last 47 lefties, meaning he’s struggling to get more outs against lefties when balls are in play.
Brandon Nimmo will lead things off for the Mets. He’ll get more chances to earn base hits or extra-base hits. Nimmo has smacked a .239 ISO and wOBA of .367 against his last 82 righties faced. He’s also limited ground balls to 31.9% and has hit 66% of hard contact against righties in that same time frame.
Nimmo has the potential to rake against Brown tonight.
MLB Prop Pick: Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140) at Bet365
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, June 19, 2023 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Michael Wacha has revamped his career in San Diego. He’s struck out 29.8% of batters in the last month for San Diego. Wacha has also walked just 7% of batters and has limited teams to a .087 ISO and woBA of .213 in their last 114 plate appearances. Wacha will still allow high-line drives and high-fly balls and won’t earn a ton of ground balls. He might even let up a couple of runs to a hot San Francisco offense.
That’s OK. Wacha has also earned a 30.6% CSWhiff percentage, a 27.9% Whiff percentage, and a 14.3% swinging strike percentage over the last 30 days. On top of that, when balls are put in play, he’s been a little lucky, which would also be helpful tonight. Wacha has allowed a .206 BABIP, which has allowed him to stick around in games.
The Giants have a lineup with five batters striking out at least 25.4% of the time against righties. Wacha would only need five strikeouts to reach his strikeout prop tonight. Six batters have struck out at least 21.7% of the time against righties in the last month. Wacha doesn’t have the most incredible stuff, but he’s a veteran that knows when to make pitches and what to look for against each hitter.
It’s showing. He’s struck out 30.8% of righties and 29% of lefties in the last month. There are no discrepancies. He’s striking out each side of the plate at a high rate and keeping walks down against both sides.
Let’s ride Wacha to at least five strikeouts.
MLB Prop Pick: Michael Wacha Over 4.5 K’s (-143) at BetMGM
