The sportsbooks have made a lot of Super Bowl LIX player props available to choose from for bettors.
Below are my favorite player props that you can and should target right now for your best bets.
Picks Summary
- Patrick Mahomes Over 6.5 Rush Attempts (+120) at Bet365
- Patrick Mahomes Under 250.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Bet365
- Dallas Goedert Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-105) at Bet365
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 09, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Patrick Mahomes’ Rush Attempt Total
Philadelphia’s defense is structured in a way that makes it appear inviting for opposing quarterbacks to run.
Coordinator Vic Fangio believes in having his defenders attack downhill.
Whereas he employs two deep safeties, his defense features light boxes, which makes it seem to opposing quarterbacks like they enjoy a numerical advantage — in terms of number of proximate blockers versus number of proximate defenders — when deciding to run.
In addition to light boxes, Philadelphia’s strong coverage abilities invite opposing quarterbacks to run.
They often lack the ability to find an open wide receiver against a secondary that includes former All-Pro selection at cornerback Darius Slay and NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year cornerback Cooper DeJean.
In Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels’ three games against the Eagles, he has averaged just over seven rush attempts despite facing significant deficits in all three games.
Mahomes’ Situation
One must expect Mahomes, though, not to face a large deficit — the Chiefs are the two-time defending champs for good reason.
Without facing a large deficit, Mahomes won’t have to force passes. He’ll be able to run when he thinks that it is worth doing.
He is, through two playoff games, averaging nine rush attempts per game. Asking him to run the ball seven times is a very fair ask, especially given the price.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 6.5 Rush Attempts (+120) at Bet365
Patrick Mahomes’ Passing Yards
This bet follows from the last one — it is good prop betting strategy to connect bets in a way that is logical.
Mahomes is going to struggle against Philadelphia’s strong coverage, its second-ranked pass defense. There is a precedent for this: the one Super Bowl that Mahomes lost, in 2021 to Tampa Bay, which was also one of the worst losses of his entire career.
Tampa Bay did two key things that Philadelphia’s defense will do in order to limit Mahomes as a passer. One, Tampa Bay employed a ton of two-high safety looks. This shell defense kept Mahomes from connecting over the top of Tampa Bay’s defense with any of his pass-catchers. Two, the Buccaneers did not need to expend extra resources in order to pressure Mahomes.
Philadelphia’s characteristic focus on employing two-high looks will make it very difficult for Mahomes to connect productively with his wide receivers. He’ll fail to make big plays against this defense that specializes at preventing them.Â
Mahomes will also struggle to find time to pass against a stacked Philadelphia pass rush. Again, the last bet is connected with this one. Mahomes will be on the run — running the ball and hence accumulating rush attempts instead of pass attempts — against an Eagles pass rush that features highly-graded studs like Jalen Carter.
A Tough Ask
251 passing yards is a tall ask for a quarterback who will struggle as much as Mahomes will. He hasn’t even thrown for more than 245 yards in a playoff game this year.
Kansas City is determined to run the ball — we saw this determination last week against the Bills even though Mahomes was frequently carving up Buffalo’s defense and even though the Chiefs on the ground failed to reach four YPC.
The Chiefs also play great defense, as they are led by the NFL’s best defensive mind in Steve Spagnuolo, which will make it easier for the Chiefs’ offense to remain at least within striking range of Philadelphia.
Mahomes will complete short passes especially to Travis Kelce, but, in sum, he won’t need to do much, and his opportunities to do much will be limited by Fangio’s scheme and Philadelphia’s excellent coverage and pass-rushing personnel.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 250.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Bet365
Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards
The “over” on receiving yards for Philadelphia’s tight end is one of the most popular bets. In this case, it is worth siding with what the sportsbooks need.
Goedert seems to be an easy choice because Kansas City has struggled to cover tight ends. He faced a Tampa Bay defense that has struggled against tight ends to a similar extent. While he accumulated seven catches for 62 yards against the Bucs, he also benefited from Jalen Hurts missing his top two wide receivers.
When he faced a Rams defense on November 24 that struggles against tight ends, he mustered all of 19 receiving yards on four receptions.
While Goedert got more receiving yards in the playoff rematch against the Rams, Brown was hurt. Brown was limited by his struggle to deal with his knee injury.
Goedert’s Limited RoleÂ
As long as Brown is healthy, which he is now, Goedert simply doesn’t have much of a role in Philadelphia’s offense.
Saquon Barkley, moreover, being the elite, 2000-yard rusher that he is, is the centerpiece of Philadelphia’s offense, whereas Hurts has primarily served as a conservative game manager.
Opposing running backs are thriving every game against Kansas City’s defense, so the Eagles will be able to lean on Barkley.
There are not enough yards out there for Goedert to get, as he’ll take a back seat at the very least behind Barkley, Brown, and DeVonta Smith and also maybe even behind Hurts as a runner.
NFL Pick: Dallas Goedert Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-105) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
