NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech to Win Big 12 Conference (+1200) at Caesars Sportsbook
The Big 12 has been wild over the last couple of years. We’ve had sleeper teams earn Big 12 Championships in back-to-back seasons. Will the expanded Big 12 add another sleeper champion in 2023? Let’s break down the future odds at the top online sportsbooks.
The Big 12 Conference
The Big 12 finally earned some respect last season. And it wasn’t because of Texas or Oklahoma. TCU was in the College Football Playoff and National Championship after going 9-0 in conference play.
The Horned Frogs had yet to pick them to finish at the league’s top. Most had this team potentially missing a bowl game.
Heading into the 2023 season, many different changes are taking place.
BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF are now members of the Big 12. Meanwhile, Texas and Oklahoma will stick around for one more year. The Longhorns and Sooners are slated to go to the SEC next season.
Let’s look at the odds of each team in the Big 12 Conference this season, via Caesars Sportsbook, as of August 4, 2023:
The Big 12 Odds
- Texas +100
- Oklahoma +340
- Kansas State +500
- Texas Tech +1200
- TCU +1600
- Baylor +1800
- UCF +3500
- Kansas +3500
- Oklahoma State +4000
- Iowa State +8000
- BYU +8000
- Cincinnati +12000
- West Virginia +15000
- Houston +20000
Texas Longhorns
The Texas Longhorns are the favorites to win the Big 12 this season. They’ll return a large number of starters, including quarterback Quinn Ewers. He’s got one of the best offensive lines in the nation and a solid receiving core that should help Ewers shine in Texas.
They’ve got a matchup against Alabama in Week 2. Texas barely lost to Alabama last year and will likely be competitive against the Crimson Tide this year. Texas has high expectations but hasn’t done anything to excite people.
The roster is good. But the execution hasn’t been there for Texas in quite some time.
There’s no value here at +100 to win the Big 12 Championship. Remember, TCU won the Championship after pre-season polls had them finishing seventh in the conference.
Oklahoma Sooners
In Brent Venables’ first season as head coach, he brought Oklahoma to a 6-7 overall record. Expectations were high, but the reality was that Oklahoma lost a lot of talent once Lincoln Riley left for USC.
Oklahoma might still be in that rebuilding phase. However, oddsmakers aren’t buying it.
In Oklahoma’s defense, the Big 12 had eight teams make a bowl game. Only two were left out of a bowl game from last year’s conference. It was an elite conference with challenging games every single weekend.
With the new additions, Oklahoma might have it more manageable throughout the schedule. But the Big 12 also proved they will still be a powerhouse conference, even with Oklahoma and Texas leaving.
The Sooners still have Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. He added 25 touchdowns and six interceptions last year. He was injured for a bit last year. But Oklahoma won’t dwell with Jackson Arnold as the backup.
Proven Replacements
Marvin Mims is also gone. But Jalil Farooq and Drake Stoops should put up solid numbers at the receiver position. The ground game should also do wonders with Eric Gray, who already had over 1,300 yards last season with 11 touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the defense was terrible last season for Oklahoma. That happened, even with Brent Venables as head coach. Venables has always been known for his defensive mind. The defense will likely improve in Venables’ second year.
But with that said, taking Oklahoma to win the Big 12 after earning six games last year would be ridiculous.
Sleeper Pick: Texas Tech
At +1200, Texas Tech might be the bet to make.
The Red Raiders won their final four games last year and finished with an overall record of 8-5. Texas Tech knocked off Texas and Oklahoma and finished with an above .500 record against Big 12 opponents last year.
In the last two seasons, the Big 12 has had a team begin the season outside the preseason Top 25 and then win the league.
Returning Starters
Texas Tech will have 14 starters return to this year’s team. That includes Tyler Shough, who came from Oregon last year. He has missed a lot of time due to injury. But he was the main guy who helped push Texas Tech in the season’s final month.
He dominated Oklahoma with 436 yards and two touchdowns and added 353 yards of total offense against Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl.
If Shough stays healthy, Texas Tech has a real shot at earning a Big 12 Championship. Plus, the defense improved a year ago. The Red Raiders didn’t allow 30 or more points per game for the first time since 2009.
With Shough increasing the offense and the defense improving, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are my best bet to win the Big 12.
NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech to Win Big 12 Conference (+1200) at Caesars Sportsbook
