The Buffalo Bills continue their quest for a Super Bowl with another playoff opportunity, this time against the Denver Broncos. The Buffalo Bills have been here many times before, yet have fallen short.
The Buffalo Bills hope to improve this season and make their first Super Bowl in over 20 years. The Denver Broncos haven’t been in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl in 2015 and this will be their first appearance since raising the trophy.
The Broncos are essentially playing with house money and they have nothing to lose. Can the Broncos be the fresh-faced upstart that upsets the Bills? Or will Buffalo show that playoff experience matters and get an easy win? Who should you back at the top-rated sportsbooks to make a winning NFL pick?
NFL Pick
- Broncos/Bills Over 47.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Broncos’ Surprising Rise
The Denver Broncos came into the year with a regular season win total of only 5.5 games.
The Broncos were known to be starting a rookie quarterback who many scouts had mocked as a second round player. Yet Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton claimed that he had found his man in quarterback Bo Nix and Payton ended up being the one getting the last laugh.
With Nix steadily improving throughout the season, the Broncos have become more and more fearsome. Now the Broncos get to continue their fun ride this year with a matchup against the Buffalo Bills.
Defense Steals the Show
Although Bo Nix has been a great story, the key to the Denver Broncos’ success this season has been the excellent play of their defense. The Broncos are:
- 3rd in points allowed this year at 18.3 points per game.
- 3rd in rushing yards allowed at 96.4 yards per game.
- 7th in overall yards allowed at 317 yards per game.
This is in stark contrast to the Buffalo Bills, who are 17th in defense averaging 341.5 yards per game allowed. However, the Broncos will have to continue their defensive success against Josh Allen, who is one of the most electric players in the league. Allen can defeat even the best defensive schemes.
Although the Broncos were 19th overall on offense with 324.6 yards per game, they were 10th in scoring averaging 25 points per game. So the Broncos were effective when given the opportunity, and their elite defense gave them plenty of short fields.
The Broncos will be counting on their defense to put their offense in an advantageous position in this wild-card showdown.
Buffalo’s Window
The Bills are at a time in their development where all that matters is the playoff success.
The Bills have won their division for five seasons in a row. Their fans are now accustomed to regular-season success and have their eyes on a Super Bowl appearance. The Bills have put up valiant efforts but have come up short each year. Will this be the year that the Bills finally turn things around and make it to a Super Bowl?
The Bills are second in the league in points scored, averaging 30.9 points per game. They are a tough team to stop on third down because even if you play excellent coverage, QB Josh Allen can tuck the ball and run for the first down. Allen’s dual-threat ability makes stopping the Bills a tough task even with a strong game plan.
The Bills weakness this season was considered to be their defense. However, the defense has come through when needed. The Bills will need that defense to play well this week to avoid a shootout with Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos.
Key Matchup: Denver Wide Receivers vs. Buffalo Secondary
If the Broncos are going to keep this close, they’re going to need good production on the offensive end.
As good as the Broncos’ defense is, they are not going to be able to shut down Josh Allen, just hopefully slow him down. In that case, they’re going to need a strong performance from their offense, especially through the air, if they’re going to want to keep this game close.
If the Broncos are able to move the ball through the air, they will be able to keep this game close enough to cover the spread. If the Bills are able to shut down the Broncos’ passing attack, we could be in for a blowout and an easy Bills victory.
The Pick
I like the over in this game.
I do believe the Broncos will be able to find some success through the air and even the top defenses in the league can’t shut down the Bills and Josh Allen. Denver has scored over 27 points in six of their last seven games. When Josh Allen started at quarterback, his games have gone over in seven of their 10 playoff games. The Bills have gone over in eight of their last 11 games. The Bills are also 6-2 to the over at home.
In what should be a fun contest between an established veteran team and an up-and-coming team, I expect to see plenty of points. In this wild card showdown, take the over.
NFL Pick: Broncos/Bills Over 47.5 (-110) at Bet365
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