Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Monday night’s game between Cleveland and Denver. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Broncos.
NFL Pick
- Broncos -5.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos
Monday, December 2, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High
Key Trend
Under Kevin Stefanski, who has been their head coach since 2021, the Browns are winless in games against opponents outside of their division that followed one in which they defeated a team inside their division. This year, their second-to-worst loss came in this very sort of let-down situation.
After they upset AFC North rival Baltimore, they lost by 17 points at home to the Chargers. The most plausible explanation for this trend is that they invest a lot of emotion in their matchups against division rivals.
It is a classic rule of thumb for bettors to bet against teams that are coming off an emotional victory because they are primed to suffer a letdown in their following game.
Some coaches prepare their teams better for this sort of situation, so some do a good job of avoiding the letdown. Cleveland’s coach is evidently not one of those coaches.
Cleveland’s Defense on the Road
Last year, the Browns’ defense was extremely unusual. It allowed the fewest points per game at home but the most points per game on the road. Cleveland was the only team to allow more than 30 points per road game. This tremendous disparity, because it is so unique, must remain meaningful even though this season is a new season.
This season, Cleveland has a measurably worse defense overall. It still has pass rusher Myles Garrett, so its secondary is clearly the reason for its decline in pass defense. The Browns are also significantly worse against the run.
One might, therefore, find it confusing that they are allowing fewer points on the road than they did last year. But a look at their schedule provides an explanation.
Defensive Cracks Show
This season, their road games have been particularly easy. Whereas they have had to face the Bengals, Ravens and Chargers at home, they got to face the lowly Jaguars and Raiders on the road.
While their defense limited the Eagles to 20 points in Philadelphia, the Eagles had no trouble amassing yards. They finished the game on Cleveland’s twelve yard-line and had a field goal attempt blocked.
In the Browns’ other road game, they allowed 34 points to Washington. A strong offense, therefore, has a particularly strong outlook when its team gets to play the Browns at home.
The Rise of Bo Nix
Whereas the Browns’ defense could, on the road, handle Jacksonville with its inept offensive coordinator and Vegas with its backup-caliber quarterbacks, Denver’s offense is looking extremely dangerous, as it is well-coached and led by a solid quarterback.
Denver’s quarterback Bo Nix is enjoying a tremendous development in his rookie season. Long gone are the days where Nix’s head coach would protect him by having him play conservatively.
Whereas Nix averaged 4.8 YPA in September, he is averaging 7.4 YPA in November. He is comfortable throwing to several different targets, but he has established a rapport, especially with Courtland Sutton, who, among other things, is a great end zone target with his height of 6-4.
Hot Hands in Denver
Sutton enters Monday’s game having accumulated 70 or more receiving yards in each of his last five games. Fellow wide receiver Devaughn Vele, for his current progression, is also worth highlighting.
Their quarterback has been especially hot in his last three games in which he was a blocked field goal attempt away from upsetting the then-undefeated Chiefs in Kansas City and in which he subsequently led his team to double-digit wins over the Falcons and Raiders, respectively.
Denver has, in its last two games, scored 38 points against Atlanta and 29 points in Las Vegas, where the Broncos have struggled historically.
Denver’s Elite Defense
Whereas Nix-led Denver, especially at home, should be expected to score a lot of points, Cleveland’s offense is going to struggle.
Yes, Jameis Winston represents an upgrade at quarterback over the anemic Deshaun Watson. But that isn’t saying much. Winston looked great against what has been an awful Ravens secondary that was very banged-up and against New Orleans’ 30th-ranked pass defense.
However, his passer rating was abysmal against tough competition: it was 50.5 against the Chargers and 76 against the Steelers. Whereas the Steelers rank 17th in pass defense and the Chargers rank tenth in the category, Denver’s pass defense ranks ninth.
The Broncos feature lockdown cornerback Patrick Surtain, who should add to his ninth-best interception total against interception-prone Winston.
Led by Nik Bonitto’s ten sacks, Denver also has one of the best pass rushes, one that has a terrific outlook against a Cleveland team that allows the most sacks per game.
Takeaway
Denver’s offense will thrive at home against Cleveland’s declined defense, which is struggling both against the run and the pass, as evident in its last road game, when it gave up 35 points to a Saints team that was missing its top two wide receivers.
Meanwhile, the Browns will be held back by Jameis Winston, who struggles against good defenses, and by their weak rush attack, which is limited by Nick Chubb’s continued post-injury poor form — Chubb is averaging three YPC.
Cleveland, on the road and following its win over a division rival, is in a terrible spot, whereas Denver head coach Sean Payton’s teams have always been solid in primetime games and the Broncos match up excellently against the Browns.
NFL Pick: Broncos -5.5 (-110) at Bet365
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