Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Monday night’s game between Tampa Bay and Kansas City. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Chiefs.
NFL Pick
- Chiefs -9 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, November 04, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium
Tampa Bay’s Scoring Defense
In its last four games, Tampa Bay has allowed:
- 36 points to Atlanta.
- 27 points to injury-ridden New Orleans.
- 41 points to Baltimore.
- 31 points to Atlanta.
It is difficult to conclude whether the Buccaneers’ defense has been figured out or whether it had merely benefitted, in its first four games, from facing soft challenges in the form of a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut, then another rookie quarterback, a slow-starting Detroit, and a Philadelphia offense debilitated by the absence of its star wide receiver.
In any case, Kansas City’s offense poses anything but a soft challenge to a Tampa Bay defense that is proving extremely porous. The spread might seem large, but, as I will argue, it is easy for a team to cover such a spread when its offense is capable of putting up so many points and when its defense is also so good.
I imagine the Chiefs prolonging Tampa Bay’s tendency to give up over 30 points while maintaining their own ability to hold teams to fewer than 18 points per game — they allow an average of 17.6 points per game.
Why Tampa Bay’s Defense Is So Bad
Competent quarterbacks love facing Tampa Bay’s defense.
Just ask Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins, who, without a single elite pass-catcher to throw to, has amassed a combined total of close to 800 passing yards and eight touchdowns while converting over 70 percent of his pass attempts in his two games this season against the Bucs. In Tampa Bay’s defense, linebackers don’t disrupt opposing routes.
Cornerbacks also play soft. Consequently, opposing pass-catchers have plenty of room to get open and to accrue YAC (yards after catch). Quarterbacks easily find their target. This is especially the case since Tampa Bay had traded away their top-man coverage defender, Carlton Davis, without replacing him.
Davis’ departure left depth at the cornerback thin. Now starter Jamel Dean is also injured, along with a backup cornerback. Tampa Bay’s nickelback might likewise miss this game due to injury.
Lack of talent at the edge positions emaciates Tampa Bay’s pass rush. It blitzes a lot but without helping the Bucs rank better than 20th in sack rate. Pass rushers can only do so much when a soft zone coverage is being played behind them that quarterbacks easily navigate.
Patrick Mahomes
Commonly regarded as one of the best quarterbacks if not the best right now, Kansas City’s quarterback is equipped to shred Tampa Bay’s defense. PFF numbers over time show Patrick Mahomes as being one of the best specifically against the blitz.
He won’t be fazed by Tampa Bay’s pressure. Mahomes has plenty of targets. Last week, for example, nine different teammates of his caught at least one pass. His favorite target in this game will probably be his long-time trusted tight end, Travis Kelce. Tampa Bay allows the third-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Play-Action Passes
In addition to thriving by dropping back to pass, Mahomes will find great success with play-action passes.
Play-action works effectively by inducing the defense to respect the threat posed by the opposing offense’s rush attack. As measured by YPC, Tampa Bay has one of the worst run defenses. So, the Chiefs will be able to run the ball and then execute play-action passes with a quarterback who is completing 75% of his play-action passes.
Tampa Bay’s Offense Is Overrated
With the Chiefs primed to amass over 30 points, Tampa Bay will need to score over 20 points in order to cover the spread. If you look at Tampa Bay’s latest games, then you might think that the Bucs are capable of doing this. However, let’s consider who they’ve been playing.
All season, the Bucs have faced seven teams that rank outside the top ten in total defense. Those are the teams that they’ve been scoring a lot against.
They faced one team that ranks top-ten in total defense. That team was Denver, and they scored seven points in that game. Like Denver, Kansas City ranks top-ten. Both defenses rank in the top five, in fact. Tampa Bay’s offense is overrated because it hasn’t proven itself against tough defenses.
Further Issues
In fact, Tampa Bay’s offense is in a worse position now than it was when it scored seven points against Denver. Currently, its top wide receiver Chris Godwin is injured. Godwin was one of the NFL leaders in receiving yards, so his absence takes away a crucial weapon for quarterback Baker Mayfield. In addition to Godwin, Mayfield’s second-best wide receiver, Mike Evans, is injured.
Moreover, Mayfield has thrown at least two interceptions in each of his last three games. He presses when he has to play from behind. This tendency will cause Kansas City’s lead — which it will inevitably procure with its elite defense and with Tampa Bay’s porous defense — to widen in Monday’s game.
Especially against the Chiefs, he will lack places to go with the ball. In Trent McDuffie, Kansas City has the best cornerback at preventing opposing pass-catchers from gaining separation — this is a statistically measured fact.
Takeaway
Kansas City has the best defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo’s defenses are known for starting a season slow, but the current top-five ranking of his defense shows that it is rounding into form.
This game boils down to Kansas City’s ability to get stops and Tampa Bay’s inability to do the same.
Mahomes will have a tremendous day by dropping back and throwing or by executing play-action passes while facing negligible resistance from the Bucs’ porous defense. Especially without his top two wide receivers, Mayfield-led Tampa Bay will struggle against another elite defense.
I am seeing a 34-14 Chiefs win here.
NFL Pick: Chiefs -9 (-110) at Bet365
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