The highly anticipated rematch is set—Canada and USA will clash Thursday night at TD Garden in Boston with the 4 Nations Face-Off title on the line.
In their first meeting, USA stunned Canada with a 3-1 victory, snapping the Canadians’ 17-game best-on-best international streak. Now, with the championship at stake, Canada has a shot at redemption. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best NHL odds from the top sportsbooks.
4 Nations Face-Off Pick: Over 5.5 (+105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Canada vs. USA
Thursday, February 20, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at TD Garden
The Road So Far
USA enters the game with momentum, powered by the stellar goaltending of Connor Hellebuyck, who has been the tournament’s standout netminder with a .957 save percentage. Canada, meanwhile, secured its spot in the championship with a 5-3 win over Finland on Monday, led by its star duo of Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon.
On Saturday, USA delivered a statement 3-1 victory in front of a pro-Canada crowd of 21,105 at Bell Centre. Jake Guentzel netted two goals, while Dylan Larkin chipped in with a goal and an assist, guiding USA to their first win over Canada in a best-on-best tournament since the 2010 Vancouver Olympics. Hellebuyck was a fortress in net, stopping 25 shots to preserve the victory.
As we just mentioned, Canada clinched its place in the Championship Game by eliminating both Finland and Sweden. McDavid and MacKinnon set the tone against Finland, scoring 46 seconds apart in the opening period before Brayden Point extended the lead.
MacKinnon later added a second goal, but Finland made a late push, cutting the deficit to 4-3 with under two minutes left. Sidney Crosby’s empty-net goal in the final minute sealed the 5-3 victory. Now, the rematch is set, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Keys to the Game
Canada’s offensive firepower has overwhelmed opponents all tournament, but no one has cracked Hellebuyck yet. The USA goalie has been a wall, allowing just two goals in two starts. If Canada wants to flip the script, they’ll need to create chaos in front of him—screening, crashing for rebounds, and generating second-chance opportunities. If Hellebuyck sees the puck cleanly, he’s shown he can shut down even the best scorers.
Guentzel and Larkin have been the driving forces behind USA’s attack, using speed and creativity to exploit defensive gaps. In the first meeting, Canada struggled with defensive zone coverage and transition defense, leading to high-quality scoring chances for USA. If USA can capitalize on counterattacks again, they’ll put pressure on Canada to play from behind—something the Canadians would rather avoid.
The last time these teams met, the game opened with three fights in the first nine seconds. Canada thrives on high-energy, physical play, but USA managed to stay composed and avoid undisciplined penalties. That will be even more crucial in the final. If USA lets their emotions get the best of them, Canada’s power play could tilt the game.
Power plays could be the deciding factor. USA’s penalty kill has been strong, but giving Canada too many chances is playing with fire. On the flip side, if USA can draw penalties, they have the talent to capitalize. The team that wins the special teams battle could ultimately win the game.
Prediction
Canada is expected to come out flying, feeding off the energy of the crowd and looking to set the tone early. If they score first, it could put USA on its heels. However, if Hellebuyck continues his dominance and USA gets an early lead, they’ll look to slow the game down and frustrate Canada.
Expect a tight, physical battle that goes down to the wire. In the end, Canada’s relentless pressure and ability to generate traffic in front of Hellebuyck could be the difference in what promises to be a high-scoring game.
4 Nations Face-Off Pick: Over 5.5 (+105) at Bet365
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