NFL Pick: Chargers + 4 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
We have a fun AFC West showdown on tap when the Kansas City Chiefs host the up-and-coming Los Angeles Chargers for this week’s edition of Sunday Night Football.
The AFC West’s best teams in the division will take the field and this is a great measuring stick for the Chargers on how much they have improved. The Chiefs have been the class of the league for the last 5 years.
Can the Chargers make a statement that they are ready to go to the top echelon of the sport? Or will the Chiefs once again reassert their dominance in a division that they’ve owned for years? Who should you back to make a winning NFL pick?
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, December 8, 2024 – 08:20 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Clash of Styles
The Chargers and Chiefs bring two contrasting approaches to football. One leans on discipline and physicality; the other thrives on late-game magic. Who will prevail?
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers are the blueprint as to why coaching is so important in the NFL. The Chargers were known for stumbling around and always losing in close games. The Chargers have not turned over much of their roster but have added a new coach, Jim Harbaugh. Under Harbaugh, the Chargers are buttoned up and they are now winning the close games that they used to lose. This was evident last week when they beat the Atlanta Falcons 17-13.
Old-School Football
The Chargers play in an old-school style of football. Analytics and EPA will tell you that it is best to have your quarterback and drop back as many times as possible for maximum efficiency. Even though Jim Harbaugh was a quarterback when he played in the NFL, he does not base his offense around giving the quarterback a ton of opportunities to throw. Instead, Harbaugh prefers to control the clock and limit the amount of punishment that his quarterback takes. Harbaugh prefers to have his offensive line moving forward and attacking defensive linemen rather than keeping his linemen on their heels.
An example of Harbaugh’s philosophy was this year during the draft when the Chargers drafted number five overall. After losing their two top wide receivers in free agency, many thought that the Chargers would go after a wide receiver to replace the lost players. Instead, they drafted Joe Alt, a punishing tackle out of Notre Dame. When asked why they did not draft a weapon (basically a wide receiver), Harbaugh replied, “I consider an offensive tackle to be a weapon.”
The Chargers have the 14th-ranked overall defense while the Chiefs have the 15th-rated overall offense. This should be a great matchup between two of the AFC’s top teams.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off another close win, this time against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders had a chance to win the game with a field goal, but a fumbled snap ruined the opportunity and the Chiefs once again took advantage. There are two ways to look at this. One is that the Chiefs keep getting lucky and winning all these close games. The opposite idea is that the Chiefs’ Championship experience and ability to stay poised under pressure allows them to execute when the pressure is on.
This writer thinks it’s a little of both, but you have to give the Chiefs credit for always being able to win in these close games. And in the playoffs, you will not see many blowouts, so the fact that the Chiefs are consistently playing in close games should help them when the pressure of the playoffs arrives.
The Chiefs’ poise will not help if they do not address the situation at left tackle though. Wanya Morris was benched after being absolutely destroyed by the Raiders defensive line. The Chiefs brought in veteran offensive tackle DJ Humphries, and he will most likely get the start. If the Chiefs cannot get this offensive line issue figured out, this will be the weakness that causes them to fall short in their quest for a third straight Super Bowl.
Key Matchup: LA Defensive Line vs. KC Offensive Line
Will the Chiefs be able to make the necessary adjustments in order to give their elite quarterback Patrick Mahomes time? Will newcomer DJ Humphries be able to make a statement in his first game? If the Chargers are able to pressure the Chiefs the way the Raiders did, they will not give away the game under the leadership of Jim Harbaugh.
The Chiefs got lucky with their opponent’s mistakes last week, but against the Chargers, they will not have that luxury. If the Chiefs offensive line looks decent they have a great chance to get the cover. If the Chiefs offensive line is suspect once again, this could be the time for the Chargers to make a statement.
The Pick
I like the Chargers to keep it close here. Adding an offensive tackle off the street is not what you want to be doing in Week 14 of an NFL season, especially a season in which you have championship hopes.
The Chargers play an aggressive pass rush and can bring pressure from both sides of the line. The Chargers will keep this game low-scoring, in which case, the points will become even more valuable. The Chief will probably win another close game, but not by the margin of the point spread. Take the Los Angeles Chargers +4 and -110 NFL odds.
NFL Pick: Chargers + 4 (-110) at Bet365
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