After a hard-fought regular season, everything is on the line when the remaining NFL teams take the field for the playoffs.
In this wild card round, many talented teams will give their all in order to advance and possibly win an NFL Championship. The Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans will take the field in Houston to determine who will advance to the NFL divisional round playoff.
When these two up-and-coming franchises face off, who should you back to make a winning NFL pick at the top-rated sportsbooks?
NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-110) at Bet365 (visit our Bet365 Review)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans
Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 04:30 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Riding Momentum
Led by new head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Los Angeles Chargers turned things around this season finishing 11-6. The Chargers finished the regular season on a three-game winning streak. To surge into the playoffs, the Chargers defeated:
- The Denver Broncos.
- The New England Patriots.
- The Las Vegas Raiders.
The Chargers are a well-coached, hard-nosed football team. They have an excellent defense and they have a good balance between pass rush and run stoppers. Their defense will definitely present a tough test for the Houston Texans.
Can McConkey and Johnston Deliver?
When analyzing the Los Angeles Chargers, their biggest weakness is their lack of explosive skill players.
They have rookie Ladd McConkey as their top wide receiver. He is a solid player, but he is not a game-breaker such as the Texans have in wide receiver Nico Collins. The Chargers are welcoming JK Dobbins back into the fold at running back. Dobbins was playing well and then was hurt. The team is lucky to have him back because their run game is much more impressive when Dobbins is carrying the ball.
The Chargers will hope for another big game from second-year wide receiver Quinton Johnston. Despite being widely considered a bust, he has made some steps under Harbaugh, including 14 catches for 186 yards in the win over the Raiders to end the season. If Johnston can be a weapon in this game, it’ll make the Chargers offense much more potent.
The Chargers will play a conservative offense that relies on ball control. This style of complementary football helps Jim Harbaugh hide the flaws of the Chargers on defense. Expect the Chargers to be conservative in this playoff game and to prefer the run over the pass.
Texans Tumble
After a strong season last year where the Texans went from worst to first in their division, the Houston Texans did not meet the high expectations that their fans had created for them.
After having one of the best rookie seasons of all time, quarterback C.J. Stroud definitely had a sophomore slump and his statistics were not nearly as good as they were the year before. Houston has also struggled with injuries on the offense, losing wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell during the season.
The Houston Texans will be heavily reliant on Nico Collins to have a big game with Stroud missing his other two top receivers.
The Texans also play a defensive-first strategy under head coach DeMeco Ryans. The Texans finished 10-7 this season. They are sixth in the league in overall yards allowed, only giving up 315 yards per game. They will be counting on another strong performance on the defensive side of the ball in what should be a close, hard-fought game.
Key Matchup: Chargers Defensive Line vs. Texans Offensive Line
One of the problems the Houston Texans had this season was the play of the offensive line in the middle. The Texans have two strong tackles but their play at guard and center leaves much to be desired. Teams are getting plenty of rush up the middle, which has been tough for quarterback CJ Stroud, as he cannot step up in the pocket, rather he has to roll out and limit himself to one side of the field.
It also has affected running back Joe Mixon, who has not always been able to get the proper amount of options when looking at running through the holes that his offensive line creates.
The Chargers have a nice pass rush and if they’re able to get a lot of pressure on Stroud, they can make this game very low-scoring. If the Houston offensive line is able to hold up against the Chargers, they should be able to move the ball through the air and put up points.
Whoever wins this battle in the trenches will win the game.
The Pick
The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is 12-4 ATS in his last 16 games as a favorite on the road. The Houston Texans were only 3-5 ATS at home this season.
The Chargers like to play a lot of Cover 2 defense, and Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud has not done well against this coverage.
As fine as the Texans season has been, it looks like they will need to go back to the drawing board after this game. I expect the Chargers to put forth a strong performance and win the battle on the line of scrimmage. The dream season for the Chargers will continue as Jim Harbaugh will lead them to a playoff victory. Take the Chargers -2.5.
NFL Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-110) at Bet365
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