The Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs in a must-win showdown on Sunday. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best NFL odds from the top sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: Chiefs +10 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Sunday, January 05, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High
Will Patrick Mahomes Play?
The Chiefs are riding high after Patrick Mahomes delivered a stellar performance, throwing for 320 yards and three touchdowns in a 29-10 victory over the Steelers on December 24.
The win locked up the AFC’s top seed, but it also introduced a unique dilemma for Kansas City heading into this game: play to win or rest key starters?
Mahomes completed 29 of 38 passes and spread the ball to eight different receivers, including Xavier Worthy, who recorded a career-best eight catches for 79 yards and a touchdown. Travis Kelce added eight catches for 84 yards and a score, while Hollywood Brown’s return added another dimension to the Chiefs’ offense.
The ground game, led by Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, was less effective, combining for just 38 yards on 15 carries, though Hunt managed to score.
On defense, Kansas City impressed even without Chris Jones, who missed the game with a calf injury. Despite playing their third game in 11 days, the Chiefs’ defense stifled Pittsburgh and showed why they remain a formidable playoff contender.
The Broncos Desperately Need the Win
The stakes couldn’t be higher for the Broncos. A win punches their ticket to the playoffs for the first time since their Super Bowl 50 triumph, but a loss likely extends their postseason drought to nine years.
Last week, Denver fell short in a 30-24 overtime loss to the Bengals. Bo Nix turned in an efficient performance, completing 24 of 31 passes for 219 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.
Jaleel McLaughlin contributed 69 rushing yards on just 10 carries, while Marvin Mims Jr. starred with eight catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns. Courtland Sutton also chipped in with five catches for 55 yards and a score.
Despite the loss, Denver showed they have the firepower to compete, but they’ll need to play cleaner football to overcome Kansas City and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Keys to the Game
With the AFC’s top seed secured, the Chiefs may rest Mahomes and start Carson Wentz.
If Wentz plays, Kansas City will likely focus on short, efficient passing and the run game to avoid turnovers.
Denver’s defense will look to exploit Wentz’s lack of recent game action, applying pressure and forcing quick decisions.
Wentz’s ability to stay composed will be critical for Kansas City to maintain its offensive rhythm.
Nix has shown poise, completing 77% of his passes last week. With Mims and Sutton leading the receiving corps, Denver has the tools to stretch Kansas City’s secondary.
The Chiefs’ defense has held its own without Jones, but Nix’s accuracy and Mims’ speed could create mismatches, especially if Kansas City can’t generate consistent pressure.
Kansas City’s rushing attack hasn’t been dominant, as Hunt and Pacheco combined for just 38 yards last week. However, they may be leaned on heavily with Wentz under center.
Denver’s defensive front has been stout against the run and will aim to force Kansas City into third-and-long situations, putting the game on Wentz’s shoulders.
McLaughlin has been a bright spot for Denver, with his efficiency last week showcasing the potential to move the chains on the ground.
Establishing the run will be crucial for Denver to set up play-action and take pressure off Nix. Kansas City’s linebackers will need to play disciplined and avoid giving up explosive plays.
In a game where one team is fighting for survival and the other may rest starters, turnovers, and field position will be pivotal.
Denver needs to capitalize on every opportunity, while Kansas City’s experience in avoiding costly mistakes could prove decisive.
NFL Pick
Denver will play with urgency, knowing their season is on the line, and the potential absence of Mahomes could make this a closer contest. If Wentz starts, the Chiefs’ offense may lack the explosiveness we’re used to, but their depth and playmakers like Worthy, Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins should be enough to edge out a win.
NFL Pick: Chiefs +10 (-110) at Bet365
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