We get another exciting edition of Sunday Night Football when the Atlanta Falcons host the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. How will the new look Falcons compare against the NFL’s juggernaut?
Let’s dive in to find another winning NFL pick before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks.Â
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NFL Pick
- Under 46.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 22, 2024 – 08:20 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs
Once again, the Chiefs excelled in a pressure situation to sneak out a 26-25 win over their rival Cincinnati Bengals. The defense stepped up at the end and Patrick Mahomes was clutch to put the Chiefs in position for Harrison Butker to make a 51-yard field goal look routine.
This was the Chief’s second close win against the top AFC contender. The Chiefs have to feel good about their ability to win these close games. However, the win did come at a cost because it looks like the Chiefs will be without star running back Isaiah Pacheco for a serious amount of time due to an injury suffered during this game.
The Chiefs were hoping to come into this season with more offensive weapons but with the new receiver Hollywood Brown out for the season, it’s become the Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy show. Travis Kelce had another muted statistical output against the Bengals, and his regular season appears to be tepid like last year’s regular season. Will Kelce go the route of a star NBA player and save all his energy for the playoffs once again? It seems to this writer that that will be the case. That means more heavy doses of Rashee Rice as he is taking over the role of Patrick Mahomes primary target on key 3rd downs.
The Chiefs are now a defensive-oriented team. Even with the loss of cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the league and will rely on the defense. The Chiefs are a balanced team with the best quarterback. All in all, they still remain the proper favorite to win the Super Bowl once again.
Atlanta Falcons
New quarterback Kirk Cousins saved his reputation and his season with the late game-winning drive against the Philadelphia Eagles in prime time on Monday Night Football. After looking slow and hobbled in Week 1, Cousins had his work cut out for him and it seemed the Eagles were going to help drop the Falcons to 0-2.
However, Cousins ran the hurry up offense to perfection and a lackadaisical Eagles’ defense allowed him to drive down the field. This could be the turning point in the season as now the team has some positive momentum going into this week’s tough matchup against the Chiefs.
The Atlanta offensive line looked good against the Eagles defensive line this week. This is imperative because with Cousins’ lack of mobility, he’s going to need time in the pocket to make plays. When the line gave him that time, you can see the reason that the Falcons were willing to spend so much money to bring Cousins in to hopefully take this team to the next level. After a disappointing Week 1, his late game drive in Week 2 has reinstilled confidence in this team and now they feel like they are moving in the right direction.
Key Matchups
1. How will that Chiefs Run game look without Isaiah Pacheco?
The Chiefs have become a more balanced team recently, not relying on Patrick Mahomes to sling the ball all over the field. However, with the loss of Isaiah Pacheco, the Chiefs’ Run game could take a serious hit.
Failed first-round pick Clyde Edward Helaire doesn’t have the juice to be a top running back in the NFL and the Chiefs might rely on rookie fullback Carson Steele. Steele is nowhere near the runner and does not have the burst that Isaiah Pacheco has, meaning the Chiefs might have to take to the air more often.
However, the Chiefs were thriving with their new, balanced offensive attack and would like to be able to use the run game and not overly rely on the pass so early in the season.
2. Falcons Need Another Solid Game from their Offensive Line
Kirk Cousins shows with time that he can be the quarterback that they need. However, he’s going to be completely reliant on an offensive line that was able to do their job against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chiefs have a fearsome defensive line of their own and if the Chiefs are able to get pressure the same way the Steelers did, this offense will be easy to shut down.
This game will be won at the line of scrimmage and if the Falcons’ offensive line can’t hold up, the Chiefs will be in line for another easy victory.
The Pick
The Falcons’ resurgence against the Eagles surprised me as I thought that this team was going to have struggles against teams with a strong defensive line. However, the Falcons offensive line looks better than advertised.
That being said, I’m still looking towards the under in this game. Kansas City has not been elite in the Red Zone and have not put up big points on the road. In 2023, Kansas City road games averaged a total of 39 points. The Falcons are also 6-3 to the under at home since 2023 and their games have averaged 42 points.
Patrick Mahomes has gone under in five of his last seven games against the NFC.
I think both teams will struggle to score and this will be a hard-fought low scoring game. I’m not going to get involved on the side but the Under is the best play for this Sunday night showdown.
NFL Pick: Under 46.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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