For Clemson, the pathway to the ACC championship is not closed if they keep winning and catch several breaks. Pittsburgh had to be kicking themselves as they allowed their first loss of the season to turn into two, upset at home by Virginia 24-19 as touchdown favorites last week after getting smashed at SMU the week prior.
The most realistic goal for both teams is to finish 10-2 and earn the best bowl berth possible. However, by Saturday afternoon only one club can still keep that hope alive.
Join us for a dive into this exciting game, plus our favorite pick with betting odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Clemson -10 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Clemson Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
The Tigers Have to Keep Winning and Hope Lady Luck Shines on Them
After the surprising home loss to Louisville, coach Dabo Swinney had to force his Clemson players to regroup. Reaching the ACC title game became unlikely, but finishing with a 10-2 season would be an upgrade after a 9-3 campaign.
Clemson (7-2, 5-4 ATS) responded with a 24-14 victory at Blacksburg against Virginia Tech and is ready to conclude their ACC campaign.
The Tigers offense has stalled the last two games, scoring 21 and 24 points after averaging better than 48 points a game in their prior half-dozen starts.
QB Cade Klubnik has faced more aggressive blitzing defenses in the last couple of weeks in Louisville and the Hokies. After being sacked just five in the first five contests, he’s been taken down six times in the past eight quarters and under far more pressure.
The offensive line has suffered injuries and with opponents having success pressuring Klubnik, the passing game has fallen off. This has also impacted the Tigers’ running game to a lesser degree and they have tried more rush attempts to slow the blitzing. Rest assured; Pittsburgh will use the same tactics.
The Clemson defense is in general decline for a program that was one of the best in the country, to among the best in the ACC. The Tigers are #43 in total defense and #50 in points given up. This unit still has good players, just fewer that make NFL rosters. To finish 11-2, the Clemson defense has to step.
Where is Pittsburgh Football at This Moment?
When Pittsburgh was 7-0, they received a fair amount of recognition, but not as much as one would expect like Miami, Iowa State, or BYU. There seemed to be a belief the Panthers (7-2, 6-3 ATS) were a good team that was exceeding expectations.
After being slammed by SMU and providing an uninspired showing at home versus Virginia, the skeptics have turned out to have a good pulse on coach Pat Narduzzi’s squad. So where does Pitt go from here?
The top question is the health of QB Eli Holstein, who was knocked out of the game in the third quarter with a head injury against the Cavaliers, and his status for this weekend appears to be somewhat in doubt.
If Holstein cannot go, junior Nate Yarnell steps in. Yarnell has played each of the last three seasons, has big-game experience, and doesn’t make many mistakes. He just doesn’t bring the big-play ability you get from Holstein.
What could make the situation better is if the offensive line could open more holes for RB Desmond Reid to take pressure off Yarnell and continually set up third and short for the Panthers. Clemson is only #75 in rush yards per attempt at 4.4, however, Pitt only averages 4.3 YPA.
Who Is the Right Side for the Tigers vs. Panthers?
For Pittsburgh to compete and have a shot at an upset, they have to run the ball efficiently and make enough big plays in the passing game, with whoever plays quarterback.
The Panthers’ defense is #5 in sacks per game and tackles for loss. If they can generate that pressure on the Tigers’ offense, they can get Clemson off-kilter.
To slow the Pitt defense down, this can be accomplished by using powerful RB Phil Mafah with quick-hitting run plays to leverage situations or draws. If Narduzzi’s defense has to worry about Mafah, that opens up the passing game to pass catchers Antonio Williams, Jake Briningstool, and T.J. Moore for Clemson.
One element can decide the outcome and who beats the number. That would be the signal caller for each team. Klubnik has shown a better ability to play under duress. From what he’s seen in the last two contests, he’ll be better prepared for blitzing and the Clemson offensive staff will help him find options.
While we have no problem with either Holstein or Yarnell for the Panthers, they don’t have the play-making ability of their counterpart.
One other aspect is how both teams responded after their recent setbacks. Clemson went on the road, won and covered and Pitt came home and faltered as a favorite.
Here is one last bit of intel; Underdogs like Pittsburgh of 3.5 to 10 points, off a loss against a conference rival, against an opponent off a double-digit road win are 15-41 ATS, losing by 12.5 points a game.
NCAAF Pick: Clemson -10 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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