There are tons of exciting college basketball games on tonight’s slate. Here are three bets to consider straight from our computers.
Picks Summary
- Wisconsin-Michigan State Over 131 (-110)at BetRivers
- Kansas State +3 (-110) at BetRivers
- UConn -5.5 (-110) at Bet365
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan State Spartans
Tuesday, December 05, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Breslin Center
Our AI Model believes Wisconsin and Michigan State will combine for 150 points. However, the total for this game is only 131. There’s major value in this game between two premier Big Ten opponents.
Michigan State has a win over Butler at home. But they’ve also got losses to James Madison, Duke, and Arizona. They’re not winning big games to start the season.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin started slow but just earned a 75-64 win over Marquette. They also earned a win over Virginia and are now on a five-game winning streak.
Expect a Defensive Clash
Both defenses have been impressive. There’s no doubt about it. However, the line for this game is starting to get too low. The Badgers are still a top-20 team in adjusted efficiency offensively. Michigan State has still shot nearly 53% from inside the arc.
The Spartans will face a Wisconsin defense that has allowed 33.8% from deep and 51% from inside the arc. Wisconsin has also fouled at a high rate and is giving up a 50.9% effective field goal percentage.
Meanwhile, Michigan State’s defense has been much better. But they’ve also fouled at a very high rate. Both teams will be shooting many shots from the foul line with the time stopped.
That favors the Over.
NCAAB Pick: Over 131 (-110) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
Villanova Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Tuesday, December 05, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Bramlage Coliseum
Our AI Model believes Kansas State and Villanova will tie at 78. No basketball can end in a tie. However, with Kansas State earning 3 points against the spread, Kansas State is the better play.
Recent Performance
The Villanova Wildcats have lost two consecutive games to Saint Joseph’s and Drexel. But now they’re favorites against Kansas State, thanks to wins over North Carolina, Texas Tech, and Memphis on neutral courts earlier this year. Meanwhile, Kansas State’s only big win was against Providence this season. They lost multiple games against top 50 opponents, including USC and Miami, earlier this season.
Villanova will earn points at the foul line consistently. They’ve shot 82.4% from the foul line this season. However, Kansas State doesn’t send teams to the foul line at a very high rate.
Kansas State has instead struggled to defend the three. Villanova will shoot a lot of three-point balls. However, they’ve hit them just 31.8% of the time.
On the other hand, Kansas State’s turnovers can get high. They’ve also shot poorly from deep. However, Villanova has been worse than Kansas State at defending the three, allowing teams to shoot over 36% from downtown this season.
Offensive Dynamics and Home Advantage
Kansas State is more efficient on the offensive glass and scoring inside at a higher rate. Kansas State doesn’t always make the best decisions. The turnovers will be higher for Kansas State. However, the shot-making will be better with Kansas State.
With Kansas State at home, I’ll back them as three-point underdogs.
NCAAB Pick: Kansas State +3 (-110) at BetRivers
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. UConn Huskies
Tuesday, December 05, 2023 – 09:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
The AI Model suggests UConn will earn an 84-77 win over the Tar Heels. With UConn at -5.5, the Huskies have the advantage against the spread tonight.
The UConn Huskies must respond after a tough loss to the Kansas Jayhawks earlier this month. UConn lost to Kansas, 69-65, in a very close matchup. The schedule isn’t getting any easier.
The Huskies have to face North Carolina on a neutral court after a road game against Kansas.
UConn has one of the best offenses in the nation. They’ve shot a 57% effective field goal percentage and have earned over 40% of offensive rebounds this season. The Huskies are even shooting 63.6% from inside the arc. However, the Huskies could be better from three-point land. They’ve shot only 32% from long range to begin the year.
Three-Point Shooting Concerns
Don’t expect UConn to get to the foul line very often. They’re also not going to have their way on the glass against a very experienced frontcourt that the Tar Heels have. However, the Huskies will likely do a good job of limiting turnovers. That should at least help them get shots up.
On the other hand, the Huskies haven’t defended the three well. But they’ve also allowed only 21.4% of offensive rebounds this year. Teams have shot just 40.5% from inside the arc against UConn.
With North Carolina taking a below-average amount of threes, the Huskies’ three-point defense won’t look as bad as it has in other games.
Let’s take the Huskies at -5.5.
NCAAB Pick: UConn -5.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
