Taking a look at the betting odds for today’s college basketball action, I’ve found three games that interest me: Canisius vs. Syracuse, Florida Atlantic vs. Loyola Chicago, and Arizona State vs. Mississippi State.
For your best bets, I will recommend wagering on Canisius and Florida Atlantic to cover the spread and on the Arizona State-Mississippi State game to go “over.”
My recommendations are backed by OddsTrader’s computer AI and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
- Canisius +13.5 (-110)
- Florida Atlantic -6.5 (-110)
- Arizona State-Mississippi State Over 130.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Canisius Golden Griffins vs. Syracuse Orange
Wednesday, November 8, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at JMA Wireless Dome
Our computers indicate that tonight’s game will be a very tight one, one that Syracuse escapes with a two-point victory. Because Canisius is a double-digit underdog, there is a ton of room for both Syracuse to win and Canisius to cover the spread.
In accordance with the computer projection, I recommend that you wager on Canisius.
The New-Look Orange
When Syracuse played New Hampshire on Monday, we got to see the new-look Orange under former long-time head coach Jim Boeheim’s successor, Adrian Autry.
While New Hampshire’s abysmal shooting efficiency allowed Syracuse to come out with an eleven-point win, which on the surface looks like a comfortable margin of victory, a closer examination of the game indicates that the Orange are facing a difficult reality. They are trying to make primarily two changes to their gameplay that they will have to adapt to.
Their difficulty making these two adaptations will help their early opponents, including Canisius tonight, succeed.
This is important to talk about because oddsmakers don’t account for things like the need to adjust to a new style of play. They can’t quantify something like that. So, there is automatically going to be betting value in Canisius tonight.
Stepping Up the Pace
One detail about the new-look Orange is that they want to play faster.
Whereas they ranked 170th nationally in adjusted tempo last season, they currently rank 62nd in the category. Their current ranking is actually deflated because the Orange had to slow things down toward the end of their season opener in order to help out their struggling defense.
With this new pace, Syracuse’s offense looks rather new.
One problem that will be relevant to tonight’s game script is that the Orange have to learn how to hold leads. When they led against New Hampshire, they often rushed three-pointers, which is a terrible method of protecting a lead.
Bricked three-pointers from the Orange helped facilitate New Hampshire’s comeback bid.
New Defense
Under Jim Boeheim, the Orange were famous for their 2-3 zone. Now, the new-look Orange are trying to employ man-to-man, which is something that Boeheim’s former players have to grow more comfortable with.
As a team concept, their defensive plan is very much new. On Monday, Syracuse struggled with various things defensively, such as guarding their man, ball pressure, and so on.
The Same Old Canisius
I like Canisius because it won’t share Syracuse’s problems with adapting to new styles of play. seeing as they return nine players. Especially early in the season, a large number of returning players is what you want to see in a team that you bet on.
Canisius will have critical advantages in terms of teamwork and chemistry that oddsmakers are not accounting for.
NCAAB Pick: Canisius +13.5 (-110) at Bet365
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Wednesday, November 8, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Wintrust Arena
Our computers project a strong Florida Atlantic victory, and I agree; you should wager on the Owls to cover the spread.
Remembering Last Year’s Florida Atlantic
Last year, Florida Atlantic shocked the nation by making it all the way to the Final Four in last year’s NCAA Tournament.
The Owls were no fluke. They beat the likes of Tennessee by seven before defeating a very difficult Kansas State team. Their Final Four loss came by a point against a strong San Diego State defense.
This Year’s Florida Atlantic
The Owls are generally worth having confidence in this year because their run last year is something that they have the quality on their team this year to repeat. All five of their starters from last year are back.
The Owls like to field a guard-heavy lineup that is strong on both offense and defense. Bryan Greenlee is known for his perimeter defense and three-point shooting, Nick Boyd for his three-point shooting, Johnell Davis for his steals on defense and his dribble-drive prowess, and Alijah Martin for the scoring that he adds especially from behind the arc. Inside, Vlad Goldin is efficient at the basket and a highly effective rebounder.
Loyola Chicago’s Talent Level
Florida Atlantic is going to win by a lot because it clearly has the talent to compete with the best teams in the nation.
Whereas FAU is a verifiable Final Four squad, it’s uncertain whether Loyola Chicago is a legitimate A-10 team – the Atlantic 10 just incorporated the Ramblers into its conference.
Uncertain guys include Trey Lewis, who did not play at all last season, Jalen Quinn, who mustered a few points per game, and Jayden Dawson, who must be rusty after missing most of last season with an injury.
NCAAB Pick: Florida Atlantic -6.5 (-110) at Bet365
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Wednesday, November 8, 2023 – 09:30 PM ET at Wintrust Arena
Our computers project a high-scoring game, and I agree. Accordingly, you should bet the “over.”
Arizona State’s Rebuild
The Sun Devils are returning one starter and two other players who contributed meaningful minutes last year. Meanwhile, they are incorporating ten new players.
This overhaul will have a negative effect, especially on the defense, because a good defense has guys who communicate well with each other. This need for good communication is especially important when defending ball screens, which is a common part of any basketball game.
Scoring Potential
While Arizona State’s defenders will be miscommunicating and failing to show chemistry on defense, they will still be flexing their scoring potential on offense.
Their new bag of talent includes multiple players who averaged double-digit scoring last season at the likes of LSU and Tulsa.
Mississippi State’s New Talent
The Bulldogs’ offense has been held back by poor three-point shooting. An offense’s scoring potential is obviously lower when it has to settle for twos rather than threes.
But this year’s group of Bulldogs includes new players who can shoot and who therefore will increase Mississippi State’s three-point shooting output. Andrew Taylor, for example, was an efficient three-point shooter in his career at Marshall.
Josh Hubbard is another new add who is known for his shooting, for which reason he was the top basketball recruit in Mississippi.
Oddsmakers are not accounting for this added shooting ability that will create a high-scoring total tonight.
NCAAB Pick: Over 130.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
