Let’s take a look at the current betting odds for next week’s college football bowl games!
For the games from December 17 to December 19, three in particular interest me as worth investing in: Memphis vs. West Virginia, Cal vs. UNLV, and Western Kentucky vs. James Madison.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice, including the Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt and Syracuse vs. Washington State Bowl games!
Picks Summary
- West Virginia +3 (-110)
- James Madison -7.5 (-110)
- California -4.5 (-110)Â
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Frisco Bowl
Memphis Tigers vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Toyota Stadium
 The Odds
Sports betting sites opened West Virginia as 4.5-point favorites. The Mountaineers are now three-point underdogs.
This is a drastic shift in the odds, but let’s note two things. One, it becomes extra tempting in bowl games to bet on the favored team because the favored team is generally the one that is perceived to be in a better situation than the underdog in terms of coaching changes and opt-outs. Two, it is trivially true that not all of the favorites are going to hit.
So, we need to ascertain whether we should assign credence to the implicit suggestion, conveyed by the odds change, that Memphis’ outlook for this bowl game is stronger than West Virginia’s.
West Virginia Is Just Fine
Yes, West Virginia is undergoing a greater upheaval than Memphis, but this doesn’t entail that the Tigers are worth investing in.
Taking a look at the Mountaineers’ transfers, they are mostly depth pieces. While a few absences appear significant, this is nothing more than you’ll see on a game-to-game basis.
Chad Scott will serve as the team’s interim head coach. He has been with the team for a solid six years, most recently serving as its offensive coordinator for the last two years after he was promoted from running backs coach.
I wouldn’t like this situation if Scott were still just a position coach, but he was already high in the coaching staff hierarchy.
Key Matchup Factor
Bowl games won’t just be decided by opt-outs and coaching changes. We still need to think about matchups.
The key player in this game is going to be West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene. Greene is a dual-threat quarterback. In addition to being the team’s leading passer, he is also the Mountaineers’ second-leading rusher. His outlook is great against a Memphis defense that really struggles with mobile quarterbacks.
When Memphis lost to UTSA 44-36, UTSA’s quarterback was its leading rusher. Likewise, when Memphis gave up 44 points to North Texas, North Texas’ quarterback amassed 71 rushing yards on 7.1 YPC.
An effective mobile quarterback will facilitate a high point total for an offense facing Memphis.
Memphis’ Let-Down Spot
I foresee the entire Memphis team being down in this matchup.
The Tigers are 10-2 and finished the season with a tremendous win over Tulane.
Getting a 6-6 team, West Virginia, must feel like a significant let-down for them. Getting such a team must feel like a drastic disappointment for them.
Our Pick
Even if I hated West Virginia’s defense, its offense will put up a lot of points, and so its offense alone positions the Mountaineers to be a live dog.
The shift in odds is tremendous and absurd. West Virginia’s coaching and personnel changes won’t be significant. It’s rather Memphis that is in a bad spot in terms of motivation.
Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan has played poorly before against a low-ranking defense, but the whole team will underperform in this game.
NCAAF Pick: West Virginia +3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Boca Raton Bowl
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. James Madison Dukes
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 – 05:30 PM ET at FAU Stadium
The Odds
As of Wednesday morning, James Madison is favored by over a touchdown.
I believe that James Madison is not favored heavily enough in this matchup because the Dukes will score at will whereas the Hilltoppers will struggle to move the ball at all.
Western Kentucky’s Run Defense
One key reason why Western Kentucky is worth fading is that it’s hard to overstate just how bad its run defense is. Most recently, when the Hilltoppers lost to Jacksonville State 52-12, the latter amassed 386 rushing yards on 6.9 YPC.
This debacle is not anomalous, either. On the season, Western Kentucky ranks 128th in run defense. The Hilltoppers are allowing 224.6 rushing yards per game. Only six teams allow more rushing yards per game than Western Kentucky does.
James Madison’s Ground Game
James Madison’s ground game will be of critical importance in this matchup, given what we know about Western Kentucky’s run defense.
The Dukes are rather run-heavy. They primarily want to run the ball, and they will be able to run the ball at will in this game. They feature a mobile quarterback as well as three running backs who average at least 5.9 YPC.
Clearly, they possess the personnel to exploit Western Kentucky’s massive weakness.
Western Kentucky Can’t Keep Pace
The Hilltoppers will need to score a lot of points in order to cover the spread, but their outlook is terrible as a consequence of their opt-out situation.
Neither their starting or their backup quarterback will play in this game. Those are the only two quarterbacks who have thrown a pass for them this year.
Our Pick
James Madison will relentlessly run the ball in order to amass a high-scoring total, while the Hilltoppers are doomed to fail to sustain drives because their top two quarterbacks will be absent.
NCAAF Pick: James Madison -7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
LA Bowl
California Golden Bears vs. UNLV Rebels
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
The Odds
Cal opened as a small favorite in this matchup, and the odds have shifted a couple of points in its favor. I contend that this shift in the odds is not large enough.
UNLV Lacks a Competent Coach
UNLV’s head coach is abandoning ship. It looks like the team’s offensive coordinator will also abandon ship, which is crucial because he’s been a big factor in his offense’s success.
While an interim head coach has been decided upon, I hate the fact that it is a position coach. Position coaches rank below offensive and defensive coordinators, so this is a ridiculous step up for Del Alexander, the team’s wide receivers coach. Alexander has never in his coaching career managed to be an offensive coordinator.
With Cal still retaining head coach Justin Wilcox, there will be a decisive coaching mismatch in this game.
Another ACC Opponent
When UNLV lost its one game against an ACC opponent this year, at home to Syracuse, the Rebels gave up 38 points in regulation largely due to its pass defense.
Their pass defense ranks 95th on the season and will be exploited by Cal’s Fernando Mendoza, who has had a very productive and efficient season as a passer.
NCAAF Pick: California -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
