We’re back with more College Football Bowl game picks! This time, we take a look at three more Bowl games: Gator Bowl, First Responder Bowl and Mayo Bowl! Let’s dive in.
Picks Summary
- Ole Miss -14.5 (-110)
- North Texas-Texas State Over 64 (-110)
- Minnesota -6.5 (-115)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Gator Bowl
Duke Blue Devils vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Thursday, January 02, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Blue Devils Had Excellent Season, But How Do They Score?
Coach Mike Elko did a fantastic job at Duke before leaving for Texas A&M. Though Manny Diaz was not thought of as a bad hire, he’d proven to be a better defense coordinator than a head coach.
But Diaz did an excellent job in his first year in Durham as Duke was 9-3 (7-3-2 ATS). However, Diaz was able to cover up the warts of the Blue Devils. Despite its fine record, Duke was actually -2.6 in yards gained vs. yards allowed. The Devils were #126 in rushing in the country and relied on an above-average passing game (245 YPG) and a defense that generated 26 turnovers.
The loss of starting QB Maalik Murphy to Oregon State and backup Grayson Loftis to the portal leaves Duke relying on Henry Belin IV, whose experience amounts to a single seven-yard pass.
Does Ole Miss Show Up Mentally?
Coach Lane Kiffin has spent the postseason whining that his 9-3 Rebels were better than Indiana and SMU. He’s probably right but when you lose to 4-6 Kentucky and Florida, that just means you underachieved in two winnable games that would have placed Mississippi in the playoffs.
Will Kiffin’s complaining rub his talented squad the wrong way or do they want to make one final statement that says, “We told you so!”?
Though the Rebels suffered more than enough portal losses, this is still a very talented roster on both sides of the ball and at this time they still have starting QB Jaxson Dart under center for an offense that averaged 34.6 points a contest.
What to Watch For
Ole Miss opened as a two-touchdown favorite and has hung around -14.5 to -15 since. Before the portal, Duke would be viewed as a play-on team, having the motivational edge. But as we have seen the last few seasons, if you don’t have your QB or are missing too many top players, it directly impacts the outcome.
As long as Kiffin’s club doesn’t turn the ball over and gives a 75 percent effort, they should win and cover the number against a third-string quarterback they should bottle up.
Predicted Score: Ole Miss 27 – 10 Duke
NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss -14.5 (-110) at Bet365
First Responder Bowl
North Texas Mean Green vs. Texas State Bobcats
Friday, January 03, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Make Extra Time for This Bowl Beauty
If you are doing some grocery store shopping to stock back up after Christmas and New Year’s, definitely grab extra snacks because the football bettor watching this Lone Star State clash won’t be going anywhere for a while.
North Texas (6-6 SU) averaged 34 PPG and Texas State (7-5 SU) came in at 37.1 PPG. The Bobcats by the numbers were better defensively in conceding 24.3 PPG compared to the Mean Green at 34.5 PPG. One aspect to remember, this is not like measuring a pound of brisket for each club.
North Texas moved to the American Conference which has better overall teams and players, compared to the Sun Belt. We definitely should see some points with the total at 64.
North Texas a Rising Underdog
The Mean Green opened as a 7.5-point underdog that frankly felt a bit high in spite of their defensive concerns. But when North Texas QB Chandler Morris hit the portal, that meant the Mean Green would turn to freshman Drew Mestemaker, who had thrown just four passes all year. That sent North Texas to -13.5-point underdogs.
What to Watch For
Texas State will have their signal caller in Jordan McCloud, who runs an explosive offense averaging 474 yards per game, #5 in the FBS that is perfectly positioned to exploit North Texas’ porous defense, which allows an FBS-worst 456 yards per contest.
Honestly, hard to imagine the Bobcats scoring less than 45 points, which means North Texas only has to contribute 20 to reach the OVER. The last 82 times a nonconference contest had a total between 63.5 and 70 and a club like North Texas was beaten by the spread by 21 or more points in their last three games, the average score of their next game was 72.2 total points.
Predicted Score: Texas State 48 – 24 North Texas
NCAAF Pick: Over 64 (-110) at Bet365
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Friday, January 03, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
What Might Have Been for Both Teams
Instead of seeing the winning coach slathered with Duke’s Mayo, each squad could have played in a bigger and better bowl.
Minnesota ended 7-5 SU but they lost second-half leads to North Carolina, Rutgers, and Penn State. Win two of those games and the Golden Gophers reach a high-profile bowl and matchup.
The same is true of 6-6 Virginia Tech. The Hokies lost their opener in OT to Vanderbilt, forced to a tie with under two minutes in regulation. They came back to tie Rutgers, but the defense did not hold and against then #7 Miami, VT failed to secure a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter and did the same against Syracuse, falling in OT.
Trending In Different Directions
Despite close losses to the Scarlet Knights and Nittany Lions, Minnesota closed 5-2 and 6-1 ATS. The Gophers will have senior QB Max Brosmer. Minnesota lacks an explosive offense at 26.3 PPG, but they control the clock with nearly 32 minutes of time of possession and the defense permits just 17.5 PPG.
Virginia Tech limped to the finish line 1-3 SU and ATS needed a final game win over Virginia to be bowl eligible.The Hokies lost their two top QBs and will go with freshman William Watson III who’s not seen a lot of action. They have losses in the offensive line and defense, leaving them with a depleted roster.
What to Watch For
With a stout defense and an offense that can control the clock, the Golden Gophers are set to methodically dismantle Virginia Tech. It also helps to have a coach who understands bowl preparation and P.J. Fleck is undefeated in bowl games at 5-0 in the maroon and gold.
Predicted Score: Minnesota 24 – 13 Virginia Tech
NCAAF Pick: Minnesota -6.5 (-115) at Bet365
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