As the college football bowl season heats up, we’re treated to plenty of exciting matchups. Let’s take a look at our top picks for the weekend, with the best NCAAF odds available at top sportsbooks.
And as always, don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice, featuring the Iowa State vs. Miami and BYU vs. Colorado Bowl games!
Picks Summary
- Navy +6.5 (-115)
- Louisiana-TCU Over 58 (-110)
- BYU-Colorado Over 54.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Armed Forces Bowl
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Navy Midshipmen
Friday, December 27, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium
Oklahoma Looks to Avoid Losing Season
Oklahoma boosters expected to continue to win after Lincoln Riley left for the sunshine of L.A. and brought in highly successful defensive coordinator Brent Venables. After a 10-3 season in his second year, Venables and the Sooners were considered playoff contenders in joining the SEC.
Instead, Oklahoma was 6-6 (matching ATS record) this season. The upset of Alabama in Norman felt good, but being whipped by Texas, South Carolina, and LSU did not.
Venables was supposed to be a defensive guru and ranking #20 in total defense isn’t bad but Oklahoma was no match for some of the elite teams on the schedule.
The Sooners’ offense was laughable at #121 in total yards with a passing offense that matched their ineptness. Venables messed around with the quarterbacks and nothing worked all year.
Navy Tries to Sail to Double Digit Wins Season
There were few expectations for the Midshipmen with their preseason win total 5.5. This Navy team had other plans with an option offense that was similar in look, yet had far more variables.
Navy started 6-0 before being blasted by a superior Notre Dame squad and finished 9-3 (8-4 ATS), with a great closing act in ambushing the Army 31-13. The Middies finished #7 in rushing at 249 yards a game. What made this year special was coach Brian Newberry reformulated the defense and they only allowed 22.3 PPG being sound at all three levels.
What to Watch For
While many will say the Sooners should be motivated to prevent a second losing season in three years, this program isn’t used to playing in bowls like this. The Navy’s frustrating run offense can give Oklahoma fits and the Midshipmen’s disciplined approach has helped them win five of their last six bowls. Take the points with the Navy, you might not need them.
Predicted Score: Navy 24 – 20 Oklahoma
NCAAF Pick:Â Navy +6.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
New Mexico Bowl
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 02:15 PM ET at University Stadium
Louisiana Hopes to Have One of Top Two QBs Ready
The Ragin’ Cajuns looked primed to win the Sun Belt, off a 10-2 (7-5 ATS) campaign, hosting Marshall at home for the championship. Backup QB Chandler Fields looked very good when regular starter Ben Wooldridge was injured. However, Fields hurt his non-throwing shoulder when tackled and when the third-stringer came in, after two passes it was obvious Louisiana would send the home folks unhappy in their 31-3 drubbing.
The hope is one or both signal callers will be ready for Albuquerque and if so, the Cajuns averaged 33.2 PPG this season. The Louisiana defense can be run on when facing potent offenses. They depend more on negative plays, hoping for third and longs because they have a good secondary that was #30 in yards allowed.
TCU Tries to Stay Hot
After a 3-3 start, with ugly losses to UCF, SMU, and Houston, the wolves were howling for coach Sonny Dykes, less than two full years after playing for the national championship.
Dykes and his staff tightened the defense from allowing as many big plays and TCU found a running game that was useful compared to useless which helped an already potent pass offense that finished #7 nationally.
The Horned Frogs hopped to five wins in their last six tries and look forward to ending their season on a winning note.
What to Watch For
The best team Louisiana faced was Tulane. They lost 41-33 having a balanced offense to stay in the contest, but the Green Wave ran the ball for 272 yards. We’re not expecting TCU to have that kind of success, but if they can average 5.0 yards a carry, their skilled receivers and QB Josh Hoover will reach the 30s with relative ease.
As long as Louisiana has either top QB, and expectations are they will according to team websites, the Cajuns will reach 30 points or very close to it. With the total at 58, we’ll call for an outcome in the 60s.
Predicted Score: TCU 37 – 29 Louisiana
NCAAF Pick:Â Over 58 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Alamo Bowl
BYU Cougars vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Alamodome
If you exclude the college football playoff games, there are only three other matchups involving ranked teams and the Alamo is one such bowl with #19 BYU (10-2, 7-5 ATS) facing #23 Colorado (9-3 SU & ATS). With oversized conferences, it makes perfect sense to have a couple of conference opponents face off if they didn’t meet in the regular season.
Why BYU Scores OVER 26.5 Points (Expected Team Total)
The Cougars averaged 30.8 PPG on the season. After a scintillating 8-0 start, BYU closed 2-2 and their offense dipped to 22 PPG in this contest. After averaging one turnover a game in their initial nine starts, BYU had eight in the last 12 quarters. This robbed them of scoring more points.
In watching the Cougars play a Big 12 schedule compared to being in the independent role, they appeared to wear down. Having a full month off should revitalize the Cougs offense and help signal caller Jake Retzlaff, who had 20 TD passes and reached the endzone six other times rushing.
Why Colorado Scores OVER 28.5 Points (Expected Team Total)
The Buffs arrive in San Antonio posting 34.5 PPG. QB Shedeur Sanders is in charge of the #4 passing attack in the land having great targets like Heisman winner Travis Hunter, along with LaJohntay Wester and Will Sheppard.
What’s amazing is Colorado accomplishes this with no running game to speak of, averaging just over 70 YPG which is last in the FBS. If you toss away the Army and Navy because they have the surprise element when throwing, the Buffalos are #15 in yards per pass attempt and have more speed than the BYU secondary can cover.
What to Watch For
BYU was #20 in total defense, however, they could be had by passing QBs and were burned three times for 247 passing yards or more. Colorado averaged 327 passing yards.
Coach Deon Sanders defense made huge strides in permitting 22 PPG. Nonetheless, in the three offenses that were multiple and skilled at running and passing like BYU, (Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas) they conceded 33 PPG. With that let’s take the Over 54.5.
Predicted Score: Colorado 33 – 27 TCU
NCAAF Pick: Over 54.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
