The first college football 12-team playoffs start Friday, December 20. There are four games over roughly 28 hours and the winners will advance to quarterfinals.
Here is a preview of all four matchups and our free picks, with the best betting odds from top sportsbooks. Enjoy.
Picks Summary
- Notre Dame -7.5 (-110)Â
- Penn State -8.5 (-110)Â
- Clemson +11 (-110)Â
- Ohio State-Tennessee Under 47 (-108)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Friday, December 20, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Notre Dame Stadium
The Hoosier State will be bursting with pride with Indiana traveling to South Bend to face Notre Dame. The Hoosiers enjoyed a season for the ages at 11-1 (9-3 ATS), setting numerous school records.
The Indiana offense averaged 44.3 points a game (2nd nationally) and is #24 in total offense at over 438 yards per game. The Hoosiers are led by QB Kurtis Rourke, who was a perfect fit for first-year head coach Curt Cignetti’s offense.
Notre Dame’s Dominant Run Game
As good as Indiana’s defense has been, Notre Dame (11-1, 8-2-2 ATS) is #3 in scoring at 39.3 PPG. The Irish play power football, #10 in rushing behind an offense line that kept improving all year. Notre Dame RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are both quick to the hole with explosive speed. QB Riley Leonard is a versatile runner and they were part of a running offense that scored a school-record 40 rushing touchdowns.
Both defenses were in the Top 6 in the fewest points allowed (Ind. 14.6 PPG vs N.D. 13.5 PPG). It should be strength vs strength with the Fighting Irish’s powerful #10 rush offense going against the best in the country in Indiana. The Hoosiers boast the #29 pass offense with the Domers #3 in pass defense.
Look for the Notre Dame crowd to rattle Indiana like what happened in Columbus and the home team’s more physical defensive front to handle a solid but not spectacular Indy offensive line.
NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame -7.5 (-110) at Bet365
SMU Mustangs vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, December 21, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Beaver Stadium
Penn State bettors probably feel pretty good about this matchup just not for the reason you think. SMU is seeded/ranked #11, so outside the Top 10 is where the Nittany Lions have suffered so many problems under coach James Franklin.
Both Penn State (11-2, 6-7 ATS) and SMU (11-2, 8-5 ATS) lost in their respective college championship games and one will advance to face #1 Oregon. The key for Penn State is getting consistent play out of quarterback Drew Allar. Against Oregon, Allar was less reliant on doing everything tight end Tyler Warren, and the Lions offense was more productive and efficient.
Defensively, Penn State is the better unit in this conflict, permitting 4.4 PPG less and just over 43 fewer YPG.
SMU’s Explosive Offense
SMU won the last two conference record season titles in the American and now the ACC, and it took the longest field goal in ACC title game history to beat them after a rousing comeback. The Mustangs offense is built around speed and coming up with chunk plays. QB Kevin Jennings can deliver those plays passing or running and has ample talent around him to score quickly.
Where the Nittany Lions have an edge is their size in the trenches. SMU has done remarkably well being undersized, which they will fix in the coming years. Take note that road underdogs after scoring 31 points or more in five straight games, against an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half of the last game, are 14-41 ATS.
NCAAF Pick: Penn State -8.5 (-110) at Bet365
Clemson Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns Showdown
Saturday, December 21, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Texas (11-2, 7-6 ATS) has nobody to blame but themselves for playing this week, even if they have a home game. The Longhorns were not as mentally tough as Georgia, losing ultimately by first-half failures in each contest, which set them up for both losses.
Redemption on the Line for Texas
Nevertheless, Steve Sarkisian’s team can still earn redemption and be national champions. The first order of business for Sark is he needs QB Quinn Ewers to play like a champion. One can make the case Ewers has not improved this season. The Texas offense has scored 20 or fewer points in three of the last four contests. To win and cover against Clemson (10-3, 6-7 ATS), the Longhorns need touchdowns, not field goals.
The Texas defense is third nationally but faces a Clemson offense that has a punch.
Clemson’s Offensive Spark
The Tigers QB Cade Klubnik had an excellent season after throwing for just 142 yards in the opening game loss to Georgia. Klubnik’s team finished #17 in passing yards at just under 275 YPG. When opposing teams ganged up to stop RB Phil Mafah, he stepped up and filled the void.
We won’t call for the upset because this is not the Clemson defense of the championship years. Both defenses will force turnovers and on the season, Texas has nine games with at least two miscues while the Tigers have nine turnovers in 2024. Clemson covers.
NCAAF Pick: Clemson +11 (-110) at Bet365
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Saturday, December 21, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Ohio Stadium
There is no way around it, the pressure on Ohio State is the 800-pound gorilla at Ohio Stadium. More than one college football talking head has suggested the Buckeyes might be better suited to play away from home.
It is imperative Ohio State (10-2, 6-6 ATS) starts fast because if they don’t, Buckeye fans will feel like it’s the Michigan game all over again and go quiet. Coach Ryan Day can take confidence the Tennessee colors don’t have navy and yellow. Day has an important job to restore QB Will Howard’s confidence after his dismal performance against the Wolverines. Howard’s M.O. both in the Scarlet and Gray and at Kansas State was not coming through in the biggest moments.
Defensive Showdown
Tennessee (10-2, 7-5 ATS) is #4 in total defense, #4 in points allowed, and can match Ohio State’s stop troops that are #1 in those two categories.
Vols QB Nico Iamaleava had trouble after a hot start and coach Josh Heupel turned to his offensive line and RB Dylan Sampson to take the pressure off his first-year signal caller.
Unless turnovers lead directly to points, with these defenses, a lower score looks like the right play. Tennessee is 6-0 UNDER away after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games and the Buckeyes are 5-0 Under when the total is between 42.5 and 49.
NCAAF Pick: Under 47 (-108) at Bet365
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