The fifth Wild Card game is set for NBC Sunday night with #6 Washington traveling to #3 Tampa Bay. This is Washington’s first postseason game since 2020 when ironically, they faced the Bucs, losing 31-23 as 10-point road underdogs. The former Redskins/Football Team have lost four playoff games in a row.
This is the Buccaneers’ fifth consecutive playoff appearance and in three of the four years, they played at least two games in January. Can Tampa Bay win again? Let’s give it a thought before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.Â
NCAAF Pick
- Buccaneers -3 (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook (visit our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
The Quarterbacks
Being the No. 1 pick in this year’s NFL Draft, it was surmised Jaylen Daniels would be a good, possibly quite a good quarterback. It turned out Daniels has been far better than anyone could have imagined as a rookie with 31 total touchdowns (25 passing) and just nine interceptions.
His demeanor never changes, other than to smile more when his team is winning, as they did in posting a 12-5 (10-7 ATS) mark. The most noticeable aspect of his play is uncanny composure for a first-year player and not visibly taking wins too joyously or losses too dejectedly. Daniels’s veteran teammates know they finally have a franchise quarterback and they have elevated their play accordingly.
After probably being more well-known to many people as Baker Mayfield’s House when in Cleveland for Progressive Insurance, the former Brown is making a name for himself as a quarterback and an awfully good one.
Tampa Bay reaching the playoffs at 9-8 and winning a terrible NFC South last year did nothing for the Bucs and Mayfield, with most believing it was fluky. Many expected the Buccaneers to finish third in their division, but Mayfield is an all-out performer and he tossed 41 TD passes (T2nd) and was 3rd in passing yards in the NFL in leading his club to a 10-7 SU and ATS record and another division crown.
There is a very good chance whoever plays better Sunday night will play next week.
Washington’s Keys to Moving On
As good as Daniels is, coach Dan Quinn and his offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury understood what would set up their rookie QB for success: a consistent running game. Washington did that expertly, also using the talents of their multi-talented young star as part of the run offense and they finished #3 this season.
This will be extremely important to establish against Tampa Bay to take the crowd out of the game and open up the pass offense to Terry McLaurin and TE Zach Ertz in particular.
This year anyway, team defense did not mean what it did in prior years as four of the Top 8 defenses in yards allowed didn’t even make the postseason. Washington was #13 in total defense, yet, was #30 stopping the run and that could be a conundrum with Tampa Bay right behind the Commanders in running the ball at #4.
If Washington is to win and cover, they will have to win half the first and second downs against the Bucs and force Mayfield to throw into tight coverages as he was tied for the lead for the most interceptions with 16, seven coming in the last six contests.
Tampa Bay’s Keys to Moving On
With a three-point loss to San Francisco at home on Nov.10, the Buccaneers’ fourth setback in a row, that left them at 4-6. They had a bye the following week and figured out the offense was good enough to win and with those injured coming back, the defense had to improve. The 49ers saw Tampa Bay only concede 75 yards rushing which set off a terrific stretch. Since that 49ers’ loss, the Bucs’ defense has only given up 60.7 YPG on the ground over their last eight games.
If nose tackle anchor Vita Vea and the front seven can control the Washington run game, they can generate pressure on Daniels.
Mission #1 for Mayfield and the offense line is getting that undisciplined Commanders defense blocked to run with the intent of averaging five yards on first down. Mayfield’s biggest strength as a passer is in play-action and with Mike Evans fully healthy and the development of rookie receiver Jalen McMillan, to go along with the screen passing offense, that could spell trouble for the visitor.
Who Is the Right Side for the Commanders vs. Buccaneers?
These teams met in Week 1 with the Bucs winning at home 37-20. That was so long ago that contest means nothing. What does matter is Tampa Bay’s defense is vastly improved and is more than capable of slowing elements of Washington’s offense.
There is a school of thought the Commanders have not a care in the world and won’t play tight because they have nothing to lose. Playoff experience usually has an impact, that either shows up early or when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter.
We’ll say that is important as a road team after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, winning 60% to 75% of the time, playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), after 8+ games, are measly 4-24 ATS, losing by 10 PPG. The Bucs advance.
NCAAF Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook
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