The MLB AI Computer Model is back in action to help us find some value on this crowded but valuable Sunday slate!
According to our AI Model, the Mariners are expected to defeat the Diamondbacks, 4-3, in today’s West Coast matchup. With the Mariners currently -135 favorites at the top betting sites, the value isn’t on the moneyline. Instead, it’s on the Under 7.5, with the projected score hitting just seven runs.
Let’s break down the MLB odds for this matchup
For more of today’s betting analysis, check out:
MLB Computer Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, April 28, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
Logan Gilbert’s Stunning Start
The Mariners have an amazing pitching staff. But it starts with Logan Gilbert, who is already 2-0 with a 1.87 ERA, despite facing 126 batters already.
Gilbert has held teams to a .136 ISO and wOBA of .228 and has even limited line drives to below 23%.
Meanwhile, he’s in line to face an Arizona lineup that has struggled recently. The Diamondbacks, who played in the World Series, are just 12-16 on the season, and that’s a result of the lackluster offense.
Why You Can Trust Brandon Pfaadt
Gilbert won’t have the easiest matchup with Brandon Pfaadt on the mound. The Arizona Diamondbacks starter has held righties to a .131 ISO and wOBA of .284, with 24.6% strikeouts and 4.6% walks.
He’ll duel a Mariners lineup that has more righties than lefties. But those righties combined have struck out 27.5% of the time against righties since last season while hitting a .321 wOBA, which is about average.
Since last year, the entire Mariners lineup has struck out more than 27% of the time against righties, and Pfaadt added nearly 24% of strikeouts in his rookie year.
MLB Computer Pick
I’ll back the Under 7.5 between the Mariners and Diamondbacks. I love the pitching matchup here, and apparently, the model does too!
MLB Computer Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
