Top sportsbooks have released their odds for Wednesday morning’s super early game between the Dodgers and Cubs. This is the series finale in Japan following yesterday’s 4-1 Dodgers victory.
For your best bet, I will recommend investing in the Cubs. Be sure to place your bets before you go to bed tonight. And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice.
MLB Pick: Cubs ML (+130) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Wednesday, March 19, 2025 – 06:10 AM EDT at Tokyo Dome
Chicago’s Starter
The Cubs will start Justin Steele for this game. My betting angle is that we are getting a solid, proven pitcher at plus money.
Unlike Steele’s counterpart, Chicago’s starter has established himself in the MLB.
Steele is coming off a season in which he yielded a 3.07 ERA and 3.23 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding). He would have surely been even better if he had not battled difficult injuries at different points throughout the season, but he is obviously healthy now.
He has been approximately this good in each of his last three seasons, which followed his much less stellar rookie year.
Steele’s Pitch Selection
Whereas his counterpart has to make adjustments to his pitch selection and usage as a Japanese pitcher now competing against MLB pitchers, Steele is eminently comfortable with his repertoire.
He relies primarily on a fastball-slider combo. Last year, these two pitches yielded a .392 slugging rate and a .243 slugging rate, respectively.
While two pitches aren’t a lot for a starting pitcher to rely on, Steele makes them feel like more pitches.
Because he makes them move differently, batters feel like they are seeing different pitches.
His pitches, indeed, often get classified differently. For example, his fastball is sometimes labeled as a cutter.
Steele vs. Dodgers Batters
Steele won’t have to face former MLB selection Mookie Betts, who didn’t travel with his team to Japan due to illness.
But Steele might not have to face fellow elite slugger Freddie Freeman, either.
Freeman was sidelined yesterday due to a rib injury. He reportedly has a 75-percent chance of making his regular season debut tomorrow.
His outlook, if he plays, is negative against Steele. In his career, he is 0-for-5 when facing Steele.
Steele’s overall history against the Dodgers is good. His career ERA against them is 3.00.
In his last start against them, he allowed two runs in seven innings in Dodger Stadium.
This start, which took place in April of 2023, aligns with his ongoing tendency to thrive early in a given season.
His career-long ERA in March/April is 2.52.
Why The Cubs Can Hit Sasaki
The Dodgers start Roki Sasaki for this game. Sasaki will be making his MLB debut.
Other Japanese pitchers have learned and understood that pitching against MLB batters is different than pitching against Japanese ones.
Making this transition to the MLB requires adjustments, as Imanaga made them by learning to elevate his fastballs.
One adjustment that Sasaki will need to make is to his pitching arsenal.
Sasaki relies heavily on his fastball and splitter. He needs to replicate Steele’s ability to make his pitches feel like multiple different ones. In creating and amplifying a sense of variety in his pitch usage, Steele keeps batters from locking in on a single pitch.
Now, Sasaki’s splitter movement is the subject of a lot of talk. Batters can see it now via videos of Spring Training.
They can follow a simple and good strategy by recognizing the splitter when he releases it, by laying off of it, and by focusing instead on hitting his fastball.
By focusing on hitting Sasaki’s fastball, opposing batters are able to lock in on his offerings, punishing him for relying so strongly on two pitches.
As measured by slugging rate, the Cubs were the third-best team against the high-velo (97 mph or faster) fastball from righties last year. They had and have the personnel to hit Sasaki’s fastball, with Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson being two examples.
Dodgers’ Bullpen Problem
The Dodgers’ bullpen deployed four different relievers to pitch a combined total of four innings in Game 1.
This level of reliance on their relievers is problematic given the number of injuries in their bullpen: they have four different relievers on IL.
With batters having an easier time against Sasaki with his limited pitch selection, Sasaki won’t survive long enough in this game to spare his team’s burdened bullpen a significant amount of strain.
MLB Pick: Cubs ML (+130) at Bet365
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