While no team will be sent home tonight, there are some massive games on the MLB playoffs slate. The Mets-Phillies series and Padres-Dodgers series are both tied at one in a best-of-five series. The winner of both of tonight’s games will have the advantage, needing one win in the next two games.
I asked the AI Model for its best bets for both games. Here’s what it gave us to consider at top-rated sportsbooks.
For more of today’s betting analysis, check out:
MLB Pick
- Padres ML (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, October 08, 2024 – 09:08 PM ET at Petco Park
The AI Model suggests the Padres will defeat the Dodgers, 3.8-3.6 at home. San Diego is a -155 favorite and should do enough to win this game per our AI Model.
Walker Buehler’s Struggles
The Los Angeles Dodgers will throw Walker Buehler tonight. The right-handed veteran pitcher has been poor since coming back from injury.
This season, Buehler has allowed a .221 ISO and wOBA of .376 to 345 batters. He’s also allowed 46.7% of hard contact and added 8.2% of swinging strikes with only 18% whiffs. Beyond that, he’s struck out only 18.6% of batters this season and has allowed 27.2% of line drive contact.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle a Padres lineup that has hit a .225 ISO and wOBA of .353 against righties over the last 30 days. The lineup has seven batters with a high ISO and six batters with a high wOBA over the last month against righties.
Buehler is in trouble.
Michael King Is Too Good
The Padres will counter with Michael King. The right-hander has struck out more than 29% of batters over the last month, allowing a .057 ISO and wOBA of .231. He’s become an elite starting pitcher that has blossomed as of late.
He might not recorded a super high strikeout rate against the Dodgers. After all, the Dodgers have struck out only 16.4% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. However, it’s still likely King limits power.
The Dodgers’ projected lineup has only hit a .180 ISO against righties over the last month. The lineup has five batters hitting an ISO of .150 or lower against righties. If King can induce weak hits, he’ll escape damage and potentially pitch longer for the Padres.
The Pick
I’ll side with the AI Model and back Michael King and the Padres at -155 at home.
MLB Pick: Padres ML (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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