It’s time once again to trot out the oldest of the old-school NFL parlays: the underdog and the Under. Individually, they’re the right sides for Saturday’s Wild Card tilt between Miami and Kansas City, but they work even better as a combo.
Picks Summary
- Dolphins +4 (-110)
- Under 44 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 13, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Fading the Public
Before we get to Saturday’s matchup, a quick hello to everyone who’s jumping into the NFL betting fray. It’s the start of the playoffs; business is about to pick up, with thousands of bettors entering the marketplace and laying down their money for the first time this year – maybe the first time ever.
Let’s go grab some of that cheddar. As a general rule, “casual” bettors put too much of their money on the favorite – especially when that favorite is the defending league champions, which would be Kansas City in this case. The betting public also loves to go ham with the Over – people bet on the things they want to see happen, and what people want to see is touchdowns. Lots of them.
As more of this public money comes into the marketplace, the NFL odds will change to compensate. Miami has already moved from +3.5 at the open to +4 at press time; Saturday’s total has also edged upwards a half-point from 43.5.
How high will these lines get? Back in the day, it was considered prudent to wait until closer to kick-off to see if you could get an even softer line on the underdogs, but those betting patterns are a bit harder to pin down now that the Monday-to-Friday work week is no longer sacrosanct. Maybe now’s the time to jump in and lock in these prices. Maybe.
Kansas City = Miami
It would be nice to see the Dolphins get some more points before the betting window closes. These are two evenly matched teams; each finished the regular season at 11-6 with 10.8 Pythagorean wins, Miami (10-7 ATS) putting up the better point differential at plus-105 to Kansas City (9-8 ATS) at plus-77.
They’ll be playing in K.C. this Sunday – the defending champs have home-field advantage after winning the AFC West, while the Fins lost the AFC East title to Buffalo in Week 17. Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today has home-field pegged at 2.14 points this year across the NFL. That didn’t leave much room to profit off Miami at +3.5, but they’re definitely looking tastier at +4.
Should recent results put us off the Fish this week? Getting smacked 56-19 by Baltimore (-3 at home) in Week 17 wasn’t pretty, and that 21-14 loss to the Bills (-2.5 away) won’t inspire much confidence. As for Kansas City, they’ve won back-to-back games over Cincinnati (+7 away) and the L.A. Chargers (-3 at home) to enter the postseason on a high note.
These results might actually help the Dolphins retain their betting value. They were one of the most impressive teams in the league until December rolled around; then again, maybe this warm-weather team just doesn’t have what it takes to beat the elements – and the mercury is supposed to climb no higher than 35 degrees this Saturday in Kansas City, with a light dusting of snow and enough wind chill to make it feel more like 20.
Ich Bien Ein Frankfurter
Fins supporters will also be concerned about that Week 9 game at Frankfurt Stadium in Germany, where Kansas City beat Miami 21-14 as 1-point underdogs. Don’t read too much into that result, though. It was a fairly even matchup, with each team holding the ball for 30 minutes and Miami winning the first-down battle 20-16.
The chaos of having to play across the pond also makes it harder to map the events of Week 9 onto Saturday’s contest. But where did all the touchdowns go? The fans in Germany were treated to some solid defense instead, and we might see more of the same this weekend on what should be a cold and blustery evening, kicking off at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Dolphins +4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NFL Pick: Under 44 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
