The Miami Hurricanes look to make a statement when they host the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best college football odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Under 54.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Duke vs. Miami
Saturday, November 02, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Duke’s Heartbreaking Home Loss to SMU
In a dramatic finish, Duke gambled on a two-point conversion to win in overtime, but SMU’s defense held firm, handing the Blue Devils a narrow 28-27 loss on Saturday. Duke’s advantage in the turnover battle, 6-0, ultimately went unconverted into points, a key factor in the disappointing outcome.
Maalik Murphy was productive through the air for Duke, throwing for 295 yards on 27 of 48 passing with three touchdowns. Star Thomas contributed on the ground, adding 65 rushing yards and a touchdown. In the overtime period, SMU struck first with a 24-yard touchdown run by Smith. Duke responded as Murphy connected with Eli Pancol for a score, but on the decisive two-point attempt, Murphy’s pressured pass to Pancol fell incomplete.
Despite forcing three fumbles and three interceptions, Duke couldn’t capitalize on these chances, leaving them with missed opportunities that ultimately sealed the one-point loss.
Miami’s Decisive Win Over Florida State
Miami dominated Florida State with a 36-14 victory, remaining unbeaten. Cam Ward led the passing game with 208 yards and even caught a touchdown pass. Damien Martinez was a standout, rushing for 148 yards and two touchdowns, marking the second-highest rushing total in Miami’s rivalry with Florida State, just behind Stephen McGuire’s 176 yards in 1990.
Mark Fletcher Jr. added a rushing touchdown, while Andres Borregales kicked three field goals, helping Miami snap a three-game losing streak against their rival. Wide receiver Xavier Restrepo made history, surpassing Michael Irvin and Reggie Wayne on Miami’s career lists for receptions (174) and yards (2,427) with a key 13-yard catch.
Keys to the Game
Murphy has shown solid passing abilities for Duke, but his team’s struggles to convert turnovers into points remain an area of concern. Meanwhile, Miami’s balanced offense has shown both ground and air prowess, with Ward’s passing complementing Martinez’s strong rushing. This contest will likely hinge on who can execute in critical moments and whether Duke can capitalize on defensive stops.
Murphy demonstrated his skills last week with 295 passing yards and three touchdowns, but he’ll face a challenge against Miami’s disciplined secondary and effective pass rush. If Miami’s defense disrupts Murphy’s timing and forces him into pressured throws, Duke’s offense may struggle to find a consistent rhythm.
Martinez’s 148-yard, two-touchdown performance last week showcased Miami’s ground dominance. Duke’s defense, which excelled in creating turnovers against SMU, will need to bring the same intensity to slow Martinez. If they allow him to establish the run, it could open up Miami’s passing game, giving Ward multiple options to keep Duke’s defense off-balance.
Duke’s 6-0 turnover advantage last week failed to yield points, a vulnerability Miami will aim to exploit. Miami has proven efficient in turning drives into scores, with special teams also playing a key role. Should Duke force turnovers again, they’ll need to capitalize in the red zone, as field goals alone may not be enough to keep pace with Miami’s scoring capability.
Restrepo’s historic climb up Miami’s record books underscores his reliability in clutch situations. Duke’s secondary will need to closely monitor him to limit his impact, as he has the ability to open up the field for Miami’s other playmakers. Keeping Restrepo in check could push Miami to rely more on their ground game.
NCAAF Pick
This game could begin with a defensive feel as both teams test each other’s strengths. Miami’s offensive balance and Duke’s occasional struggles in the red zone point to a slight edge for the Hurricanes. If Duke can turn defensive stops into points, however, they have a chance to disrupt Miami’s rhythm.
In the end, Miami’s success with Martinez on the ground and Ward’s distribution in the passing game should allow them to pull away in the second half, as Duke’s missed opportunities could catch up to them.
NCAAF Pick: Under 54.5 (-110) at Bet365
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