The Final Four was absolutely electric. All No. 1 seeds deserved an opportunity to play in the National Championship. However, we’re left with Florida and Houston. Both teams have been super clutch all season long. Now, the championship will come down to one game.
The Gators beat Auburn for the second consecutive game, but this time, the win meant a little more. After that win, the Gators had a chance to win a national championship. On the other hand, Houston stormed back after many fans pleaded on social media that the game was over. Houston never gave up and found a way to win.
The Big 12 probably didn’t get enough credit heading into the NCAA Tournament. But Houston’s battles with those teams in the Big 12 allowed them to respond against a Duke team that never really endured that kind of comeback.
Let’s break down the National Championship game using the AI Model with all that out of the way. I’ve got the best bets for this game and shared them below.
NCAAB Pick
- Houston +1.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Florida Gators vs. Houston Cougars
Monday, April 07, 2025 – 08:50 PM EDT at Alamodome
The AI Model thinks the Gators will earn a 1-point win over Houston, 71-70. However, the Cougars are +1.5 at the top-rated sportsbooks. Houston would cover in this scenario.
Who Has The Edge?
It’s very hard to find any edge for either team entering this game. Florida is the No. 2 offense per Kenpom. However, Houston is rated as the No. 1 defense in the nation.
Ultimately, Florida should get to the foul line consistently. Yet, the Gators have only hit 72.6% from the foul line, which isn’t terrific. Meanwhile, the Gators have also added 38.8% of offensive rebounds per game. But it’s unlikely Florida dominates the glass against a Cougars defense that has allowed below 29% of offensive rebounds.
Beyond that, Houston has limited teams to 30.3% from deep and 44.3% from inside the arc. Finding good shots against Houston is difficult. When Houston needed to tighten up defensively against Duke, the Cougars stifled the Blue Devils in the final 12 minutes of the game.
Duke couldn’t find many open looks and settled for jumpers instead of attacking the rim. That’s what Houston’s defense will do to you. However, Houston’s aggressive defense will result in fouls. Again, this season, Florida isn’t the most efficient from the foul line.
Plus, the Cougars have added 20.9% of turnovers per game. Houston will likely win the turnover battle. After all, Florida has gained just 16.7% of turnovers per game.
Will Florida Do The Little Things Well Enough?
The Florida Gators have limited teams to a 45.6% effective field goal percentage. Opponents have hit only 29.5% from deep and 46.4% from inside the arc.
Houston has a bunch of elite shooters from three. However, the Cougars haven’t been very effective inside, shooting only 48% from two-point range this season. In addition, Houston isn’t aggressive on offense. They’re a half-court team that doesn’t bang get to the foul line all that much. Still, the Cougars have grabbed 37% of offensive rebounds and have limited turnovers to 14.2%.
Again, Houston should easily win the turnover battle and add more possessions that way. I’d also like to imagine Houston will at least add the same amount of second chances as Florida and could even get to the foul line more against a Gators team that still ranked 177th in FTA/FGA ratio this season.
The Pick
Many people will harp on the fact that the Cougars didn’t deserve to win because the refs gave them a call towards the end on an over-the-back call. Maybe that specific call didn’t need to be made. However, the Cougars still absolutely dominated the final 12 minutes of that game and put themselves in a position to earn that call and win the game.
Houston’s play won them that game, which will likely win them the NCAA Championship. Let’s back the Houston Cougars at +1.5. Using the AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: Houston +1.5 (-110) at Bet365
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