The New York Yankees earned Game 1 of the ALCS last night, knocking off the Guardians 5-2 on their home field. After a big Game 1, the Yankees will look to drag that momentum into Game 2 and prevent the Guardians from gaining home-field advantage ahead of Game 3.
With the pitching matchup set, we looked to the AI Model for some direction before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert analyzed this game, offering some alternative betting strategies
Picks Summary
- Yankees ML (-170)
- Over 7 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
Tuesday, October 15, 2024 – 07:38 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
The AI Model likes the Yankees to earn a 5-3.8 victory at home tonight. With New York currently sitting at -170, the best bet would be to back the Yankees on the moneyline. Meanwhile, the AI Model also suggests this game will have 8.8 runs. Bet365 is only carrying a 7, so the Over is also a terrific play in tonight’s game.
The Lefties Have Potential For New York
The Cleveland Guardians will send out Tanner Bibee tonight. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has allowed a .103 ISO and wOBA of .279 over the last 30 days. However, he’s still given up a .175 ISO and wOBA of .381 to his previous 48 lefties. Additionally, lefties have hit a 53.3% hard contact rate over the last month and have added 33.3% of line drives.
Ultimately, Bibee has been fantastic against righties, but he’ll still have to take on more lefties than righties in New York’s lineup. Juan Soto and Jazz Chisholm are two lefties with much potential, too. Soto has added a .243 ISO and wOBA of .417 against his last 47 righties. Meanwhile, Jazz Chisholm has earned a .256 ISO and wOBA of .315 with only 21.7% of strikeouts against righties.
These two should set the tone for the Yankees tonight. Plus, you can never rule out Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Those two righties are massive power sluggers who always have potential despite the other pitcher’s actions.
Gerrit Cole’s Turn In The Rotation
After earning a Game 1 victory, the Yankees are set up perfectly with Gerrit Cole on the mound tonight. He has only added 19.8% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. However, he’s still held his last 101 batters to a .042 ISO and wOBA of .193 with only 4% of walks.
The type of contact Cole has allowed hasn’t been very pretty. After all, he’s allowed more than 27% of line drives and nearly 30% of fly balls over the last 30 days. He’s also induced just 36.4% of ground balls.
There’s room for the Guardians to attack.
The top of the Guardians’ lineup has done well against righties. Steven Kwan has added a .231 ISO and wOBA of .508 against righties, and Kyle Manzardo has launched a .265 ISO and wOBA of .356. Behind Manzardo, Jose Ramirez has added a .327 ISO and wOBA of .421. These three hitters should at least give the Guardians some production.
While it likely won’t be enough against the Yankees’ bats, the Guardians should still be able to contribute to the Over in this matchup.
The Pick
With the Yankees at home in the playoffs, you don’t want to bet against Gerrit Cole. Cole is a machine and is pitching off adrenaline with the home crowd. He’ll be really good.
Cole will have a lot of opportunities to mow hitters down toward the bottom of the lineup. Those Guardians at the bottom of the lineup will become rally killers and won’t be able to help the top of the order stay afloat. The Yankees aren’t so much better. But it’s more likely the lefties make good contact against Bibee. It’s also more likely they’ll see more of Cleveland’s bullpen tonight, even after seeing much of it yesterday.
That gives the Yankees the advantage. Let’s ride with the AI Model and back the Yankees on the moneyline and the Over 7. Thank the AI Model when both of these bets cash. You can even do a same-game parlay with both bets to boost the profits.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-170) at Bet365
MLB Pick: Over 7 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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