All of the No. 1 seeds made the Final Four for the first time in a decade. While there were no real Cinderellas in this year’s tournament, the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games were super exciting and close most of the time. Expect that in Saturday’s Final Four college basketball slate.
I asked the AI Model for its best bets on both games. Here’s what it came up with.
NCAAB Pick: Houston +4.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Check out another top pick for Saturday:
Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, April 05, 2025 – 08:49 PM EDT at Alamodome
Houston Is For Real!
The Houston Cougars are the least exciting team in the Final Four. They don’t have household names, but they’re an experienced bunch that has played together for more than just this season.
Houston is currently ranked as the No. 1 defense in the nation, according to KenPom. Meanwhile, the Duke Blue Devils are the No. 1 rated offense.
While Duke has shot 38.6% from deep and 58.5% from inside the arc, Houston has limited teams to 30.1% from three and 44.5% from inside the arc.
Anything Duke can do, Houston can stop. Even on the glass, Duke has tallied 34.1% of offensive rebounds, but the Cougars have limited teams to 28.7% of offensive rebounds.
This will easily be the most significant challenge for Duke on the offensive end. They haven’t had to face a defense like this all year long.
Does Duke Have The Answers?
The Duke Blue Devils have limited teams to an effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. They have also held teams to 30.8% from deep and 43.3% from inside the arc.
Ultimately, Duke makes offenses work, forcing teams to use 19 seconds per possession. But that’s no problem for Houston.
The Cougars are very efficient in the half-court and will enjoy Duke trying to play to their tempo.
Houston has drained nearly 40% from downtown and has added 36.8% of offensive rebounds with only 14.2% of turnovers. A slow style is exactly what Houston will want in this game.
The Pick
The Cougars can control the tempo and play their brand of basketball. Take Houston at +4.5.
NCAAB Pick: Houston +4.5 (-110) at Bet365
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