It’s like the pandemic never happened. The Chiefs and 49ers are back in the Super Bowl, giving us a somewhat unexpected Big Game rematch from four years ago – just before everything got shut down. If only we could go back in time and do something to fix that mess.
It’s never too late to protect your future. Did you have either K.C. or San Fran in your NFL futures bets this year? Congratulations: You’re about to make some money. The AFC champions were available at +1000 on the preseason Super Bowl odds board, while the NFC champs were a tasty +1600.
Only one team can win Super Bowl LVIII, mind you. But if you want to lock in some profits – or at least limit your losses – a clever hedge bet or two will ensure that you get something out of this year’s Big Game, no matter what happens on Sunday, February 11 when the final gun goes off at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.
What Is a Hedge Bet?
Every time you bet on the NFL at the top sportsbooks, you’re entering a world of risk vs. reward. If you bet on Team A, you assume a certain amount of risk (the size of your wager), and if they come through, you receive your reward (the size of your profit).
But what if you also bet a little sumpin’-sumpin’ on Team B? This will reduce your overall risk since one of the two teams has to cash in – barring a push, of course. It will also reduce your overall reward since one of the two teams also has to lose.
Win-Win Situation?
Betting both sides makes sense sometimes.
Every once in a while, you can make an “arbitrage” play if there’s enough of a difference in the NFL odds between two sportsbooks; if you grabbed the defending champs when they opened at +120 for Super Bowl LVIII, and you’re able to bet the Niners at +121 or longer by kick-off once the lines move, you’re automatically in the black no matter who wins the Big Game.
This arbitrage play is a textbook example of a hedge bet. But there are other wagers you can make if you want to protect your Super Bowl futures now that they’ve made it this far. Let’s take a closer look at your options for betting both sides.
Hedging Kansas City Futures
So let’s say you’ve already got $100 down on Patrick Mahomes and Co. at +1000 to win Super Bowl LVIII. That’s a potential profit of $1000 – and a potential loss of $100. What you need here for a hedge is a bet that will do the following if Kansas City loses:
- Cash in
- Cover your initial $100 stake
At the same time, your hedge bet has to be small enough so that you won’t eat into that entire $1000 profit should Kansas City win. The Niners are still the -110 moneyline favorites at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review) as we go to press; if you use an online arbitrage calculator as your guide, you’ll find that betting about $575 on San Fran to win Super Bowl LVIII will lock in about $420 in profit, no matter who comes out on top. Nice.
Hedging San Francisco Futures
Now let’s say you’ve already got $100 on the Niners at +1600 to correct their mistakes from four years ago. That’s $1600 in profit if they do – but how do you cover your assets in case Kansas City pulls another rabbit out of their collective hat?
In this case, the defending champs are even money at press time to win the Super Bowl. Now the math works out perfectly; betting exactly $850 on K.C. will lock in a profit of $750, win or lose. That’s a spicy meatball.
Before you get your hedge on, remember that you’re willingly giving up potential profit with this play in order to minimize your risk. Maybe you don’t want to bet against yourself in the Big Game. Or maybe you’re already hedging to some extent with your Super Bowl props; if you’re on K.C. at +1000, betting Niners QB Brock Purdy at +225 to win Super Bowl MVP will give you some counterbalance.
Don’t Shoot Yourself!
Whichever Super Bowl bets you choose this year, make sure you’re not shooting yourself in the foot by canceling out all your potential profit with your hedges, and leaving it all for the sportsbooks to hoover up with their vigorish and hold percentages.
Good hunting!
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
